Is Tooro experiencing a quiet but significant political shift?

The purported Political Loyalty and Development in Tooro Sub-Region largely disagree.

COMMENT | INNOCENT B. NATUKUNDA | Tooro sub-region in Western Uganda, known for its scenic beauty and rich cultural heritage, has for decades been assumed to be loyal stronghold of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM). Despite this unwavering support, the region continues to grapple with limited socio-economic development and poor service delivery. This discrepancy between political loyalty and tangible benefits has raised significant questions among residents and political analysts alike.

Tooro sub-region, encompassing districts such as Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kamwenge, Kitagwenda,Bunyangabu, Kyegegwa and Fort Portal city, has traditionally voted overwhelmingly for the NRM despite reported  irrugulaties and manipulation in the electoral process. This loyalty stems partly from the region’s historical alignment with the political ideology of stability and unity that the NRM has championed since taking power in 1986.

Additionally, many in the region viewed the NRM as a force of liberation that brought peace after decades of political turbulence in Uganda. This perception solidified the NRM’s political base in Tooro. However, this loyalty has not translated into proportional development, a point of growing concern among local populations

Despite consistent political support, development in the Tooro sub-region remains limited. Roads in rural areas are often impassable during rainy seasons, health centers are understaffed and under-equipped, and access to clean water remains a persistent issue. Education infrastructure, especially in primary and secondary schools, is dilapidated in many areas, contributing to poor performance and high dropout rates.

Additionally, while other regions like central and eastern Uganda have seen increased industrialization and urbanization, Tooro’s economic activity remains largely agrarian, with minimal value addition or market access. Government programs intended to boost rural incomes, such as Operation Wealth Creation (OWC) and Youth Livelihood Program (YLP), have had minimal impact due to poor implementation, corruption, and lack of follow-up.

This persistent underdevelopment has led to a disconnect between the people’s political loyalty and their socio-economic realities.

Many young people, facing unemployment and lack of economic opportunities, are beginning to question the long-standing political allegiance to the NRM. This sentiment is increasingly reflected in growing support for opposition parties, particularly the National Unity Platform (NUP).

Local leaders and civil society groups have also started voicing concerns about the region’s underrepresentation in national budgeting and resource allocation.

Based on the aforementioned grievances, Tooro is experiencing a quiet but significant political shift. The National Unity Platform (NUP), led by Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine), has captured the imagination of many, especially the youth. The party’s message of change, equity, and youth empowerment is resonating across the region.

Social media and urban mobilization have helped NUP build a support base even in areas where traditional political structures are deeply entrenched. The growing number of NUP coordinators, political meetings, and community engagements in Fort Portal and other towns signals an evolving political landscape.

While the NRM continues to control local government structures, it is increasingly facing resistance, especially during by-elections and urban council elections.

If the current trajectory continues, the NRM will face a significant reduction in its vote share in the upcoming general elections. This projection is not just speculative but based on visible trends of political awakening, dissatisfaction with the status quo, and active youth mobilization.

Internal divisions and complacency within the ruling NRM are weakening its grip on rural strongholds. Disgruntled NRM-leaning voters, especially those who have seen little to no development despite decades of loyalty, are now open to voting for change.

If current political dynamics persist and opposition suppression does not intensify, it is highly likely that NUP will make major electoral inroads in the Tooro sub-region in the next general elections. This potential shift could reshape the political map of western Uganda and place greater pressure on the ruling party to respond to the region’s long-standing demands or even give chance to NUP to work on them after victory.

PDM and its limited impact in Tooro

Introduced by the government as a flagship program aimed at uplifting households out of subsistence farming into the money economy, the Parish Development Model (PDM) promised transformative change, particularly in rural areas like Tooro. However, the actual implementation and impact of the PDM in the region have been disappointing and riddled with challenges, leading to skepticism and frustration among residents.

In many parts of Tooro, beneficiaries report delayed disbursement of funds, lack of sensitization on how to effectively use the resources, and poor coordination at the local government level. Several parishes have received minimal guidance on how to organize and manage PDM committees, resulting in inefficiency and, in some cases, allegations of corruption and favoritism. This has greatly undermined the program’s objectives and further widened the trust gap between the government and the people.

Moreover, the limited capacity of financial institutions involved in the program and lack of follow-up support have meant that even where funds were disbursed, many recipients could not use them productively. As a result, the anticipated shift from subsistence to commercial production has not materialized in most areas, and poverty levels remain stubbornly high. For many in Tooro, PDM has become another government initiative that promised much but delivered little.

The Tooro sub-region exemplifies the growing contradiction in Ugandan politics—strong loyalty to the ruling party met with minimal developmental returns. As frustrations mount and alternative voices gain traction, it is evident that the region is at a political crossroads.

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Innocent B Natukunda aka Rutekanga is a founder team leader of Tooro sub regional coordinators of NUP. He is also a hopeful candidate in the next elections for Member of Parliament Mwenge North county.