Katumba ‘Oyee’ performed poorer than polls suggested

Kampala, Uganda | THE INDEPENDENT | The Afrobarometer pre-election survey of Uganda had indicated that John Katumba might perform best among the new crop of politicians that contested in the presidential election 2021.

The Afrobarometer survey had among other findings indicated that 24 year-old Katumba was best known of the new entrants at 36%.

While the respondents were nearly spot on about how it would end, especially among the top three, they were off the mark on Katumba.

The Uganda General elections were held in Uganda on 14 January 2021 to elect the President and the Parliament. Incumbent President Museveni, who has ruled the country since 1986, secured at 6th terms

Other presidential candidates included opposition leader and former pop-star, 38-year-old Bobi Wine of the National Unity Platform, John Katumba, Willy Mayambala, Fred Mwesigye, Henry Tumukunde, Joseph Kabuleta, Nancy Kalembe, Patrick Oboi Amuriat, Mugisha Muntu and Norbert Mao.

📌 Asked to tell all the names of candidates, most respondents in the AFROBAROMETER POLL knew:

✳ Museveni 96%
✳ Kyagulanyi 90%
✳ Amuriat 48%
✳ Katumba 36%
✳ Muntu 25%
✳ Mao 24%
✳ Tumukunde 21%
✳ Kalembe 18%
✳ Kabuleta 8%
✳ Mayambala 5%
✳ Mwesigye 2%

📌COMPARE THAT TO THE FINAL RESULT BELOW

✳ Museveni 58.64%
✳ Kyagulanyi 34.83%
✳ Amuriat 3.24%
✳ Muntu 0.65%
✳ Mao 0.56%
✳ Tumukunde 20
50%
✳ Kabuleta 0.44%
✳ Kalembe 0.38%
✳ Katumba 0.35%
✳ Mwesigye 0.25%
✳ Mayambala 0.15%

Other findings of the survey released a few days to the polls had stated that:

• Among the 84% of respondents who said they were registered to vote, more than half (53%) indicated they would vote for Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) party.
• About one in five (18%) said they would cast their ballots for Bobi Wine and his National Unity Platform (NUP) party. The other nine candidates combined get 5%.
• One in four registered voters refused to answer the question (22%) or said they did not know how they would vote (2%)
• When asked who they thought would win the election, regardless of their own intentions, a large majority (57%) predicted victory for Museveni, compared to 21% for Bobi Wine.
• Support for the challenger was stronger in urban areas (26% for registered voters, vs. only 15% in rural areas) and among younger Ugandans (24% of 18-35 year olds). Even among these groups, Museveni outpaced his challenger (35% in urban areas, 45% of younger voters) though undeclared voters add a degree of uncertainty.
• In the Parliamentary election, among registered voters, 52% say they plan to vote for the NRM candidate, while 29% identified another party. But 18% do not voice their preference (16% refused, 2% said they “don’t know”).

FULL POLL DETAILS

Uganda 2021 Elections Afrobarometer Poll by jadwongscribd on Scribd