Facebook privacy drive may crimp some political campaigns

Even with a stricter privacy environment, digital is expected to account for 20.1 percent of the $8.8 billion spent this year in the United States on congressional and state election ads, according to the consulting firm Borrell Associates.

That compares with less than one percent in the 2014 elections, according to Borrell. But it’s down slightly from an estimate earlier this year, the firm said, because of “shyness about Facebook use following the Cambridge Analytica scandal.”

Facebook has announced it would verify the identities of anyone placing political ads on its platform and follow procedures in a bill called the “Honest Ads Act” for labeling of candidate messages.

It remains unclear how Facebook will adapt new EU privacy rules for the US market, such as the ability to easily opt out of targeted ads.

“I think Facebook will provide as much incentive to opt in as possible,” said Mark Jablonowski, chief technical officer of DSPolitical, an ad tech firm that works with Democratic candidates.

“If Facebook users do opt out (in large numbers) that would have a major impact on Facebook revenue and targeting capabilities. It would have fairly far-reaching implications for the whole advertising industry.”

Jules Polonetsky, CEO of the Future of Privacy Forum, said that “it’s not just a Facebook issue,” because consultants and candidates can obtain detailed voter data from other, sometimes “sketchy” sources.

Polonetsky said some political consultants are advertising ways to reach “angry” voters, which may lead to incendiary ads, whether via social media, email or other methods.

“I fully expect candidates will do everything possible to win, using any available data they can hoover up, and apologize for it later,” Polonetsky said.

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Chris Wilson, CEO of the political consulting group WPAi, which works with Republican candidates, warned against going too far in restricting social media data use.

“Facebook has given Republicans an important resource that allows candidates to go directly to voters with messages on issues they care about,” Wilson said.

“If we push too hard and Facebook changes their rules so that we can’t do the same things as Netflix or Spotify at the individual level, that would be sad for the future of democracy.”