On Trump’s deal with Iran

 

How America’s claims to military greatness have been exposed as being hollow

THE LAST WORD | ANDREW M. MWENDA | So now Donald Trump is claiming to have arrived at a “deal” with Iran. Although the details are not yet known, this is the biggest humiliating military defeat America has suffered over the last 126 years. It is worse than the defeats America suffered in Korea, Vietnam, the second Iraq invasion and Afghanistan. Why? This has been the shortest war the US has fought but also one where it leaves the enemy in a much stronger position than before the war began. More than that: this is a war where America has transformed a third-rate military power into a power with considerable intercontinental influence able to hold the rest of the world at ransom.

Let me just recap America’s aims in this war. The first was to promote regime change. After killing many of its top leaders, America replaced the old and moderate (“dovish” in international relations parlance) Ayatollah Ali Khomeini with his much younger and more militant and aggressive son, Muktah Khomeini, as the new Ayatollah. More than that, he strengthened the power of the Revolutionary Guard, the most “radical” (though it’s more appropriate to use an international relations term – “hawkish”) military force in Iran’s body politic. And finally, he has consolidated internal political support around the very government he sought to remove.

The other aim was destroying Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. He has not despite the bombings of last year and this year. Instead, the memorandum of understanding that he is supposed to sign (i.e., the “deal”) only halts hostilities and promises to enter negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. Yet as a precondition to these negotiations, the USA has agreed to lift sanctions against Iran, unfreeze its assets and pay it compensation for war damages worth $300 billion. America may spin this unconditional surrender at the feet of Iran, claiming the money will be paid by her Gulf allies. It doesn’t change a thing. No victor pays reparations. The vanquished do.

The third American/Israeli aim was to destroy Iran’s ability to make ballistic missiles that could threaten the demonic Zionist state. Now, the US’s own intelligence estimates suggest that 70% of Iran’s missile-building capacity is still intact. America expended large volumes of its munitions bombing 15,000 “targets”. It turns out that many of these so-called targets were dummies – dummy tanks, 3D images of jet fighters on airfields, etc. Meanwhile, Iran was firing old and outdated stocks of ballistic missiles against both Israel, the Gulf states and US bases in the Gulf. America, Israel and the GCC were using their highly advanced air defence systems to help Iran get rid of these outdated and obsolete ballistic missiles. From America’s own intelligence estimates, Iran has not yet used its more advanced missiles, the reason Trump wants to get out of this war quickly.

The fourth aim of America’s unprovoked attack on Iran was to destroy its ability to aid its “proxies” in the region – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. All evidence suggests that this aim has not been achieved. After three years of genocide in Gaza, Hamas remains undefeated and the Houthis are dominant in Yemen. Israel’s genocidal war in Lebanon is exposing its military weakness as Hezbollah is using drones to beat the hell out of the ADF. Hence, this genocidal state can only commit arbitrary and indiscriminate violence against innocent civilians.

This brings us to the unintended consequences of this war. The love affair between Trump and Israel’s demonic prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is dead. They have exchanged horrible telephone calls where Trump has used four-letter words. Trump has made public statements calling on Israel to stop bombing Lebanon to secure the peace with Iran that he so desperately needs. He has said that Israel cannot exist without American and his personal support. The great claim of how powerful Israel is has always been a hoax. Without the US military, economic and diplomatic stake, this demonic and genocidal Zionist state would maybe exist but would not carry out its genocidal killings.

Iran will have sanctions against it lifted, it will have its assets unfrozen, and it will be paid $300 billion before it enters actual negotiations with America on its nuclear program. These upfront payoffs are given to allow it to open the straits of Hormuz, control of which it did not exercise until Trump attacked it. It is unlikely that Iran will give up its uranium enrichment program. On the contrary, I suspect Iran will drag these talks over years as it rapidly builds a nuclear bomb. And once they have it, they will have insulated themselves from the kind of aggressive attacks the America constantly launches against weak and defenceless countries.

I need to comment on this last statement. America is a big bully that is militarily hollow inside. Except for Gulf War One of 1991, it has not fought and won a war since 1945. But even here, America’s claims to military supremacy were propaganda. Nazi Germany was defeated by the Soviet Union; America’s contribution to allied victory was small and inconsequential. Indeed, 85% of the battle losses Nazi Germany suffered in men and equipment were in Russia. Despite the carpet bombing of Japan, including the use of nuclear weapons, it was the entry of the Soviet Union into the war against Japan that forced Tokyo to surrender.

America’s military weakness was exposed in all other subsequent wars it has fought since: Korea, Vietnam, Iraq II, Afghanistan and now Iran. Iraq I was successful because the senior George Bush set clear and limited objectives and organised a global coalition to fight alongside America in a war whose cause was justified. For all its other military adventures, America has attacked small and defenceless countries. Its media, politicians and other talking heads make a lot of noise about these military victories. But how can a world heavyweight boxing champion enter the ring and beat up a ten-year-old boy and claim that that is evidence of great boxing prowess?

In our culture, a war is one that is fought among equals. America has never fought an adversary of equal strength. If it wants to demonstrate its military greatness, let it invade China, whose economy is equal to that of America – or even Russia, whose economy is 20% of America’s. When Nazi Germany attacked the Western allies (France and Britain) on May 10^th, 1940, the balance of forces on either side was even. It prevailed in six weeks due to superior strategy and tactics. That was evidence of great military genius.

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amwenda@ugindependent.co.ug