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Why and how the opposition is playing right into Museveni’s hands

Relatives take the remains of one of the person who died during the riots. PHOTO URN

In times of riots, the primary instruments of the state to maintain stability – at least in the short term – are the police backed by the army. Once armed forces are deployed in the streets, it is inevitable, even though regrettable, that there will be fatalities. 

This only goes to demonstrate that the state everywhere poses a great danger to society. But let us remember, borrowing from Karl Popper, that for the state to perform its function of ensuring security of person and property, it must have more power than any single person or institution. So the state is a necessary evil.

Though we may design institutions to check its power, and the dangers that emanate from such power, we can only minimize but not eliminate this danger completely. Therefore we have to always suffer costs at the hands of the state. The point is NOT that we cannot suffer at all but that we should not suffer too heavily.

Most pundits and opposition activists ignore this reality and imagine a perfect state. While it is okay to condemn the state for loss of life, this does not delegitimize its intervention, even though I believe police and military actions need to be improved.

The measure is how best the police and army have minimized abuse not eliminated it. It is impossible that any human action can be without mistakes. While I feel the pain of those who have lost loved ones in these riots, I am acutely aware that such fatalities are the price we pay for containing riots and ensuring order.

Finally, Bobi Wine and other opposition politicians and activists should know that Museveni is a specialist in violence. When he lost an election in 1980, he chose violence as his path to power. With a small group of men and without much external support, he was able to defeat a government backed by international funders and foreign troops in a campaign that lasted less than five years.

His writings reveal that he deeply understands how to use violence to gain and retain power – that is his competitive advantage. By fomenting riots, the opposition is leaving the terrain where they have a competitive advantage (popular democratic support) to a terrain where Museveni is at his best – violence. This is political stupidity and immaturity of the highest order.

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amwenda@independent.co.ug

7 comments

  1. I like this piece.

    • The videos related to the events in question, show peaceful individuals being shot by our security officers. One lady was in an office, overlooking a patrol before she was shot at. There was another group that was cheering, that lost their lives.
      We should NOT spin this. Our brothers and sisters died.
      There is no justification for killing cheering Ugandans.

  2. Copied from elsewhere about Bobi Wine:

    ——-

    Firstly, the promises he made during his nomination speech were underwhelming… things like increasing coffee production and zoning the country according to agricultural production… nothing that will really move the country forward.

    Then, he talks about reducing taxes and increasing salaries of soldiers and police officers. That was one of the mistakes made by Mugabe which resulted in hyperinflation, economic collapse and worsened political instability. These economically unsound promises expose the fact that he is being poorly advised which is of even greater concern.

    Then, he calls his party National Unity Platform but many of his supporters routinely label fellow Ugandans from the west of the country as “Banyarwanda” in ways that would seem like it’s an insult or a bad thing to be a Munyarwanda, or from the west of the country… he has failed to reign in those xenophobic and tribalistic supporters, which doesn’t reflect the kind of leadership needed to unite the country and move it forward.

    Then, the blurry ideology is another cause for concern… a campaign based solely on “Museveni must go”, exaggerated criticisms, talking about oppression while in all honesty things are not perfect but we enjoy so many freedoms as Ugandans that others can only envy… routinely calling Museveni a dictator yet his supporters hurl all manner of abuses and insults at Museveni in ways that no dictator would ever allow.

    Then, in one of his recent speeches he kept repeating, “I am representing…” and then he lists certain groups of people. This again exposes that he is not ready for the job as being a president is not about mere representation, it’s about service and leadership for all citizens. Representation is the work of a parliamentarian, which he has done really well as an MP, but being a president is not about representing constituencies or certain sections of the population.

    Then, his decision to abruptly set up a political party and run for president is his democratic right. But in the process he exposed certain cracks in his candidacy such as not being subjected to democratic processes within his party, meaning he is no better than Museveni in terms of being declared the sole uncontested presidential candidate in his party. This might seem like a petty concern, but if that is his starting point, we all know that getting into power corrupts an individual. How many actual dictators started off as revolutionaries?

    Similarly, by entering the presidential race abruptly as a new entrant, even causing estrangement among politicians of different political parties who were previously aligned with his former pressure group People Power… even when they had asked him if he was going to start a party and run for president and according to them he denied having such intentions… that displays early stages of political dishonesty and untrustworthiness, which is really unfortunate. In the process, he also exposed lack of political awareness because entering the race the way he did without first discussing with other opposition presidential candidates on fielding one candidate so as to avoid the repeated issue of split votes. He would have been of greatest service to Uganda as an activist lobbying for change through his People Power pressure group.

    There are just so many concerns and question marks that show he is just not ready for the job of president. Which is all just really unfortunate. We love Bobi Wine the musician, and Bobi Wine the parliamentarian… but as a presidential candidate… I’m sorry to say, he may be very popular, but he is just not ready for the job and yet we need a very ready candidate to move Uganda forward.

  3. Andrew Mwenda never ceases to amuse me by his narrow view of things!! At anytime, any president that has ruled Uganda thought they had the best monopoly of imposing violence, until they were overpowered. What makes him think no one should try it on Museveni as he is by far the best is laughable. Or, if one is the best at something, does that’s mean no one should try him, or does it mean that he will forever remain the best? The naked fact is that Museveni has been (and is by far) the best collaborator of the West-especially on his assistance on his so called war on terror. America & UK for example find him a necessary ally. For example, instead of them deploying their sons and daughters to fight in some countries & die, Museveni is always quick to respond on their behalf whenever he is called to deploy on their behalf. This attributes personal benefits to him e.g it comes with the West supporting him or keeping a blind eye on his atrocities. Museveni understands the many Ugandans don’t support him. Any small assistance can cause things to change. With Bobi coming with just a perceived support from the west, it gives Museveni sleepless nights. This is among the main reasons he unleashes terror. My disappointment is that instead of the Bobi and the like approaching him militarily, they should target those officers who cause mayhem, the way Kale had started- hit those where it hurts most & silently spread the message. Don’t cause the death of innocent people. Do the main thieves of Uganda’s wealth and their ardent surrogates. Make Kampala ungovernable. This is exactly what Museveni did in his bush war. It takes time but such moves work in the long run.

  4. Mwenda, you should know as much as anyone else that Ugandans have just about had enough of mbaguta.. It really does not matter where the next president comes from or who he or she is, all the people want and need right now is change. and change they are going to get. We would rather have it done peacefully obviously but if that option is denied to us then we are going to look at other options. This is our country after all, we have no other..!!

  5. 1.Uganda’s level of freedom and democracy are too advanced compared to her level of development. In the first world; the level of freedom of speech and democracy corresponds with the level of development.
    2.The number and quality of presidential candidates in a normal Nation should be 3 in a race;The world is still in shock as to why Ugandans prefer an ex drug addict to lead her.even a decent woman should have had sex with at least 3 men.
    3.The choice of presidential candidates protrays the mindset of its citizens.
    4. Ugandans are a sitting duck.
    5.The youth in Africa today are in a transition era from primitivity to civilization thats why they need proper mentors like M7;they do not understand matters like geo politics,foreign policy and fiscal policy.
    6.Africa has a young population which is overwhelmed with adolescent behaviour thats why M7 excuses them when they insult him.
    7.What is so special about being a youth? How come the leaders in the first world are all 55 years and above?8.The current political trend in Uganda could be a plus for M7 coz its a sign that government has put in place good systems in that an clown can be a president.

  6. I tell you, once Bobi Wine enter Kampala for campaign, Uganda government will fall. Watch and see

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