Bobi Wine’s last test
Even failing the first two tests, Bobi Wine could still win the last most crucial test. He could garner more votes in the 2021 election than Besigye’s highest tally of 37% of registered voters.
Alternatively, if Besigye runs again (for the 5th time) and manages his average tally of about 27%, then the joint opposition vote could be over 50%. There would be no winner with 50+1 of the vote, and the election would have to be re-run.
But elections throw up surprises. Can Besigye, who has been the dominant opposition player for two decades, up-stage Bobi Wine and win more votes in the 2021 election?
This question is pertinent because, while every presidential election has had many candidates on the ballot, it is always a two-horse race for the voters. The other candidates are mere brides’ maids. In the last election, the ballot had eight candidates. But the last six got only 3.6% of the vote between them. Museveni and Besigye scooped 97% of the votes. Even the highly touted former Prime Minister, Amama Mbabazi, managed only 1.4% of the vote.
If the two-horse scenario repeats itself, who will hog the most votes? Will it be Museveni and Bobi Wine with 97% of the vote and Besigye with 1.4%? Or will it be Museveni and Besigye with 97% of the vote and Bobi Wine with 1.4%? Or will it be Besigye and Bobi Wine with 97% of the vote and Museveni with 1.4%? Some scenarios are probable, others are possible, and others impossible.
Then of course there are the other new candidates. Rtd. Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu who is said to appeal to many moderates; those who traditionally have not voted for either Museveni or Besigye, will be on the ballot together with a raft of nobodies and newbies. What impact these will have on Bobi Wine’s chance remains the proverbial cat in the bag.