Why Opposition members are running to NRM

Latif Sebagala, Odonga Otto, et al.; Opposition is decamping to NRM

COMMENT | OBED K. KATUREEBE | Sometime in 2016, President Yoweri Museveni vowed to neutralise the cantankerous Opposition political parties completely. In his view they were not adding helpful political hygiene to Uganda’s political development.

He made the statement two days after the Electoral Commission declared him the winner of the February 18, 2016, presidential election. He was speaking from his country home in Rwakitura, Kiruhura District, during his maiden post-election speech.

Going by what is taking place in Uganda’s political arena, President Museveni’s vow of taming irritable political actors is now a “done and dusted” task. Probably President Museveni, being the seasoned political actor, foresaw the vulnerability that defined most of our noisy Opposition actors and knew what to do to erase them from the Opposition high ground.

Seeing an opposition stalwart, who until recently was a member of the National Unity Platform (NUP), Latif Ssebagala, throwing in the towel, one is tempted to critically reflect on Museveni’s famous 2026 vow. A few days ago, Ssebagala publicly announced that he had quit NUP and officially joined the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM).

Earlier, before joining NUP, he used to be a diehard member of the Democratic Party (DP) where his elder brother and former Kampala City Mayor, Al-Hajj Ntegge Sebagala was President General. Defections from the main opposition, i.e., NUP, UPC, DP and FDC are becoming the order of the day, and one wonders what will remain of them by 2031, when we shall have the next general elections.

Meanwhile, another raucous opposition politician, formerly of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and former MP Aruu County,  Samuel Odonga Otto, is on the verge of joining the ruling NRM, and is already speaking in tongues. When he was asked by journalist Kaggwa Njala of Next Media, in one of the interviews, if he had crossed to the ruling NRM, his response was that he would tell the country his next course of action soon. This was after honoring an invitation to join hundreds of NRM supporters that attended the launch of General Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s Patriotic League of Uganda’s (PLU) endorsement bash on September 7, 2026 in Naguru for him to stand as presidential candidate come 2031.

The writing is on the wall for Odonga Otto. It is only a matter of time for him to join the ruling NRM. After all, in his own words, there is no opposition in Uganda to write home about.

Matters have been complicated by the internal divisions that have characterized the main Opposition parties, leading to total fallouts. FDC was the first to fall apart when a section led by Kizza Besigye and former Kampala Mayor Erias Lukwago fell out with Party President Eng. Patrick Oboi Amuriat, together with the Secretary General, Hon. Nandala Mafabi, and formed another political party called People’s Front for Freedom (PFF).

NUP also suffered a similar fate when the two principals, i.e., Robert Kyagulanyi, who is the party president, fell out with his then leader of Opposition,  Mathias Mpuuga.  Mpuuga and his supporters in NUP broke away and formed a new political party, the Democratic Front (DF), and this created a sharp divide, leading to a poor performance in the 2026 General Elections, compared to how they performed in 2021. Such deep cracks within the Opposition have led to most of them decamping to the NRM.

Kizza Besigye, who is now in incarceration, together with his other protégé Robert Kyagulanyi of the National Unity Platform, mobilized their supporters through extreme belligerency and, to a great extent, gave their supporters false hope. According to them, Museveni had to go in the shortest time possible, even if it meant using other means. Well, Museveni hasn’t gone, and indeed the majority in the Opposition are losing hope, hence the decamping.

Extreme views frame politics as an ‘us versus them’ battle. This breaks down social cohesion, increases intolerance and turns communities against each other. These two, main political actors (Kizza Besigye and Robert Kyagulanyi), probably framed their campaign slogan similar to the infamous Makerere Northcote Hall, ‘We Win or They Lose.’

Having failed to dislodge Museveni for some time now, most Opposition members feel like they were duped by their leaders, who had assured them of a quick and decisive victory. Besides, they see little hope in removing the NRM power. The wound of failing to secure a quick and decisive victory is one of the most agonizing experiences in human endeavour. Whether in war, politics, business, or personal ambition. It is the jarring transition from hubris to stagnation, where the intoxicating promise of a swift triumph dissolves into the gruelling reality of a war of attrition.

Therefore, as it stands now, Museveni’s grand ambition of extinguishing the Opposition seems to be a reality. Whether it is President Museveni, or Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, running as presidential candidate in 2031, NRM looks headed to a very easy victory.

***

The writer works with Uganda Media Centre