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Uganda among medal favorites in unpredictable Tokyo Olympics

Cheptegei training in Monaco early this year. PHOTO @NNRunningTeam

📌 Tokyo Olympics medal projections (Gold, Silver, Bronze)

                                G      S       B

*⃣ Kenya                 6       5       4

*⃣ Ethiopia             1       3       3

*⃣ Ivory Coast        0       2       1

*⃣ Egypt                 0       1       2

*⃣ Uganda             1       1       0

*⃣ South Africa      1       0       1

*⃣ Morocco            1       0       0

*⃣ Botswana           0       1       0

*⃣ Nigeria               0       0       1

GRACENOTE: United States, China and Russian Olympic Committee likely to lead Tokyo medal winning NOCs

Los Angeles, US | THE INDEPENDENT | The Tokyo Olympic Games that start in the next 100 days, are likely to be the most unpredictable Olympics ever due to the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic, experts have concluded.

According to data and sports experts at Gracenote, despite the unpredictability of the ggames, Uganda is among the countries set for at least a two-medal haul at Tokyo 2020. Their projections suggest medals will be won by a larger number of competitors, with Uganda led by Joshua Cheptegei among the top 10 in Africa.

On April 14 2021, 100 days ahead of the rescheduled 2020 Tokyo Olympics opening ceremonies, Gracenote released its latest Summer Games Virtual Medal Table (VMT) forecast.

Nielsen Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table has used the information available since the 2016 Summer Games to identify the athletes who are likely to be successful but the projection contains more uncertainty than usual because of the pandemic.

Considering available results data from key competitions since the 2016 Summer Games, Gracenote has predicted gold, silver and bronze medal counts for participating countries and athletes at the Games of the XXXII Olympiad.

The United States is expected to win the most medals overall at Tokyo 2020. This would mark the seventh successive Summer Games during which the American team would have come out on top of the medal count competition.

After falling to 70 medals in 2016, China is expected to bounce back in Tokyo to cement second place on the Virtual Medal Table for the third successive Summer Olympics.

Kenya is again expected to be the top nation, with Uganda projected to finish 5th with at least two medals.

VIDEO: Joshua’s 10k world record.

📌CHEPTEGEI  records

✅ 5000m 12:35.36 WR

✅ 5k (route) 12:51 WR

✅ 10000m 26:11.00 WR

✅ 15k (route) 41:05 WR

Gracenote have eye on Cheptegei

“We have Joshua Cheptegui in gold for the men’s 10000m and silver for the 5000m. There are 3 other Ugandans holding places in our top-8s,” a Gracenote official told The Independent.

As sports was hit world wide for long spells by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, long distance ace Cheptegei used the break to concentrate on breaking world records. And he did it successfully.

Cheptegei is the 2019 world champion in the 10,000 m and cross country, and is only the tenth man in history to hold the 5,000 m and 10,000 m world records concurrently, both set in 2020.

The 24-year-old Uganda ace started his year by winning the the annual Monaco Herculis run in February. Cheptegei retained his Monaco Run title with a time of 13:13, far short of his 12 minutes 51 seconds world record he set last year.

The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country. This information is presented in simple to understand predictions and seamless data feeds that enable broadcasters, media publishers and pay TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across Web, mobile and broadcast properties.

Cheptegei in 2021 

How Cheptegei run in 2020 

Glacenot forecast: Top Five 

United States (Tokyo 2020 projection: 114 medals, 2016: 121 medals)

The U.S. is expected to once again top the Summer Games Virtual Medal Table in Tokyo. The current Gracenote projection of 114 medals is seven down on the total claimed by American competitors in 2016. It also represents a decrease on our initial forecast from July 2019. Team USA’s medals should come in 29 different sports which would break the Olympic record of 28 (Soviet Union 1980, United States 2016).(click to see details)

China (Tokyo 2020: 85 medals, 2016: 70 medals)

China’s total of 70 medals in 2016 was the country’s lowest return since 2004 and the current Gracenote projection expects big improvement on this at Tokyo 2020. China edged Great Britain into second place in Rio by a margin of three medals. This time, host nation Japan and Russia were expected to be serious challengers to China for second place. But the data suggests that China will probably be further ahead at Tokyo 2020 than they were in 2016. The number of medals forecast for China has increased by four since our first prediction was released in July 2019. The Chinese team is forecast to win medals in 23 different sports, its second largest number of medal winning sports, beaten only by the 26 in 2008.

Russian Olympic Committee (Tokyo 2020: 73 medals, 2016: 56 medals)

It is currently unclear which athletes will be allowed to compete in Tokyo under the Russian Olympic Committee banner. Results data since Rio 2016 suggest that 73 medals could be won by these competitors but they must first be permitted to compete.

Japan (Tokyo 2020: 59 medals, 2016: 41 medals)

Tokyo 2020 host nation Japan won a record-breaking 41 medals at the Rio Olympics in 2016 and Gracenote currently projects them to improve on that total by over 40%. The expected gains should come from a combination of more medals in all of Japan’s strongest sports and potential success in new and returning sports which hosts historically enjoy. Japan’s projected total has declined by 11 medals since our initial Virtual Medal Table release in July 2019.

Netherlands (Tokyo 2020: 46 medals, 2016: 19 medals)

The best-ever Dutch medal winning performance at a Summer Olympics was Sydney 2000 (25 medals). The current projection is for the Netherlands to comfortably beat this record at Tokyo 2020 with more medals forecast in cycling – track, cycling – road and sailing than ever before. Unlike 2000 when the record medal count was driven by multiple medals from a small number of Dutch stars, Gracenote’s projection for Tokyo 2020 suggests medals will be won by a larger number of competitors. The forecast for the Netherlands has increased by 12 since the first medal table projections were released in July 2019.






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