The Independent Uganda: You get the Truth we Pay the Price
Kampala, Uganda | URN | The Ministry of Water and Environment has dismissed as misleading a wave of viral social media posts warning of heavy rainfall across Uganda in the coming months, insisting that the country’s official seasonal forecast points to a warmer and drier-than-normal period between June and August 2026.
The clarification follows the circulation of videos, particularly on TikTok, claiming that Uganda is likely to experience above-normal rainfall over the next three months.
Godfrey Mujuni, a weather expert with the Ministry of Water and Environment, says the messages are taken out of context and contradict the June-August 2026 seasonal climate outlook issued by government meteorologists.
“Where did they get the heavy rainfall from?” Mujuni said after reviewing videos circulating with misleading weather claims. “This (weather) information is used for planning and decision making on climate sensitive sectors such as Agriculture, Health, Water Resources and Disaster Risk Reduction and distorting or misrepresenting it can have very far-reaching effects.”
Mujuni further urged the public to disregard unverified weather information circulated online and instead rely on forecasts issued through official channels.
On Friday, the Ministry of Water and Environment issued the official forecast predicting warmer-than-average temperatures and mostly below-normal rainfall across much of Uganda during the June to August 2026 season, warning of a dry spell that could stress crops, livestock, and water resources.
Permanent Secretary Dr Alfred Okot Okidi, while releasing the June–July–August (JJA) seasonal climate outlook, said most parts of the country should expect near-normal to below-normal rainfall alongside higher-than-usual temperatures.
He urged citizens, particularly farmers and livestock keepers, to prepare by conserving water and adopting climate-smart practices.
The outlook indicates that central and western Uganda are likely to experience significantly drier conditions, with prolonged dry spells expected in areas such as Kampala, Wakiso, parts of the cattle corridor, and districts in western and southwestern Uganda.
Eastern and northern regions are projected to receive intermittent or near-normal rainfall in some places, particularly around Lake Victoria, Mount Elgon, and parts of West Nile and Karamoja, though overall amounts are still expected to be below or near average. .
Temperatures are projected to be warmer than normal countrywide, with some areas potentially reaching highs around 24°C or more during the period. This combination of heat and reduced moisture heightens risks of crop failure, water shortages, and increased bush fires.
Meteorologists link the expected pattern partly to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, associated with developing El Nino conditions, which tend to suppress rainfall in the region. Local factors such as large water bodies and topography will still influence localised showers.
The Ministry further advised farmers to plant drought-tolerant crops, invest in irrigation and water harvesting, and reduce reliance on rain-fed agriculture. Livestock owners were encouraged to secure water sources and prepare supplementary feed.
