Museveni’s 7th Term: The illusion of change in an age of turmoil

COMMENT | ANDREW PI BESI |   It is to the late John Nagenda (RIP) that I owe my introduction to Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, an intriguing literary figure of 19th-century France. From his modest but enduring body of work emerged one of history’s most memorable observations: Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose — the more things change, the more they stay the same.Over the last week, Ugandans have been inundated with excitement, speculation, and no small measure of intrigue over President Museveni’s newly unveiled cabinet. Familiar faces have exited the stage. Gen. Abubakar Odongo, Mzee Matia Kasaija, Evelyn Anite, John Mulimba, Godfrey Kabbyanga, and several others were dropped. In their place stands a fresh cast of political actors whose collective story reads less like a government gazette and more like the opening chapter of a political drama.

Nameere, who earned public notoriety for her spirited confrontations with the ever-vocal Full Figure, now serves as deputy minister under Balaam Barugahara at the strategically important Ministry of Local Government. Meanwhile, Allion Yorke Odria, whose relentless criticism of former Speaker Anita Among made him a familiar voice in public discourse, assumes responsibility for National Guidance at the Ministry of ICT and National Guidance, an institution many would agree has struggled to define its purpose in an era dominated by social media and decentralized information.

At Mbuya, seasoned advocate Kiryowa Kiwanuka now assumes the portfolio of Minister of Defence and Veteran Affairs, inheriting a ministry whose budget has crossed the one-billion-dollar threshold and whose importance to the stability of the state can scarcely be overstated.

Taken together, these appointments appear designed to advance President Museveni’s stated ambition of transforming Uganda’s economy from approximately USD 50 billion to USD 500 billion within the next ten years. By any measure, that is a bold target. It demands not merely economic growth, but structural transformation on a scale unprecedented in our history.

Of course, Uganda today is significantly different from what it was in 1986. The economy is many times larger than it was. Major highways now connect regions that were once isolated. Electricity generation has expanded dramatically. Telecommunications have revolutionized commerce and communication. School enrolment has increased. Regional infrastructure projects, the emergence of the oil and gas sector, and the growth of urban centres all testify to a nation that has moved forward in important respects.

Indeed, President Museveni’s supporters would argue, with good justification, that many of these achievements are the product of strategic consistency sustained over four decades. Few African leaders can point to such longevity accompanied by relative political stability, sustained economic expansion, and the preservation of national unity in a region often characterized by conflict and fragility.

Yet acknowledging these successes only sharpens the question confronting Uganda today. If the foundations have largely been laid, why does corruption continue to undermine public confidence? Why do service delivery failures persist? Why does institutional performance so often depend on the intervention of powerful individuals rather than the reliable operation of systems? The challenge facing Museveni’s seventh term is, therefore, not merely to celebrate past achievements, but to consolidate them through stronger institutions capable of outlasting any single leader.

And it is here that Karr’s famous observation becomes difficult to ignore. For 40 years, but especially over the past thirteen, each new cabinet announced is presented as the Ursa Minor of the National Resistance Movement’s continuing promise of fundamental change in Uganda’s political and economic affairs.

Each new term (Kisanja) brings with it familiar and unfamiliar faces. New slogans are carefully coined, and fresh task forces constituted. Still, the fundamental question confronting Uganda remains remarkably constant: can the state generate the discipline, competence, and institutional integrity required to convert ambition into achievement?

It is here that the insights of the renowned American geopolitical strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski become relevant. Writing in the aftermath of the Cold War, Brzezinski identified the defining challenge of modern states as managing political and socio-economic turmoil. His proposed remedy was deceptively simple: Strategic vision, firmness of Purpose, and a clear sense of Values.

Uganda today requires all three.

Strategic vision means moving beyond announcements and appointments to a coherent national plan capable of accelerating industrialization, increasing productivity, and creating wealth at scale. Firmness of purpose requires confronting corruption wherever it resides, whether in ministries, local governments, procurement entities, Parliament, or the broader political ecosystem. A clear sense of values demands that patriotism triumph over patronage and that public office once again be regarded as a trust rather than an opportunity for accumulation.

If Uganda is truly to become a USD 500 billion economy, the challenge will not be finding ministers. Uganda has never lacked ministers. The challenge will be building institutions capable of delivering results regardless of who occupies ministerial offices.

That is why, amid the excitement of a new cabinet, one cannot help but return to Karr’s old wisdom. The names may change. The seating arrangements around the Cabinet table may change. The slogans may change. The task forces may change. But unless our politics becomes more disciplined, our institutions more effective, and our public service more accountable, the underlying challenges of governance will remain stubbornly familiar.

President Museveni’s seventh term will ultimately be judged not by the novelty of its appointments but by whether it succeeds where previous administrations have struggled: breaking the cycle in which personalities change while outcomes remain the same.

In an age defined by global turmoil, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical upheaval, Uganda’s greatest challenge is not changing faces. It is changing results.