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COVER STORY: Covid is no joke

Accuracy of WHO projections

The conclusions in the WHO study are based on a scenario of widespread and sustained community transmission of COVID-19 in the country.

The scientists used a unique technique to ensure that although this is modelgenerated scenario based on assumptions and scant data, its conclusions are as accurate as possible in capturing the effect of the disease on the country.

They factored in unique socioecological issues that could be contributing to the low numbers of COVID-19 cases seen in Uganda, and Africa so far compared to other regions. The socioecological context includes things like population density, weather, population mobility, social behaviour and others. Other factors are presence of older people in the community, number of males and presence of chronic comorbidities that are associated with more severe disease and death.

The study covered 47 of the 54 countries on the African continent. It predicts a high risk of exposure in states of small size, together with Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon.

Nigeria will have the largest number of infections, followed by Algeria and South Africa. Mauritania would have the fewest cases, followed by Seychelles and Eritrea.

Per capita, Mauritius, Seychelles and Equatorial Guinea would have the highest proportion of their population affected, while Niger, Mauritania and Chad would have the lowest.

Of the one billion people in Africa, 22% will be infected with COVID-19 in the first year, with 37 million symptomatic cases and 150,000 deaths. There will be an estimated 4.6 million COVID-19 hospitalisations, of which 140,000 would be severe cases requiring oxygen, and 90,000 critical cases requiring breathing support.

The needed mitigation measures would significantly strain health system capacities, particularly for secondary and tertiary services, while many cases may pass undetected in primary care facilities due to weak diagnostic capacity and non-specific symptoms.

“The effect of avoiding widespread and sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is significant, and most likely outweighs any costs of preventing such a scenario. Effective containment measures should be promoted to best manage the COVID-19 pandemic,” the report says.

“Non-pharmaceutical interventions present the best approach to contain the outbreak. Failure of containment leads to a significant increase in cases and deaths, with mitigation measures overwhelming health system capacities,” it adds.

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4 comments

  1. Government what are you still waiting from stopping track drivers or you first want them to caused more problems to Ugandans that when the President and his ministers will open their eyes

  2. There are some schools that are day sectioned . When the candidates of such schools are allowed schooling in this period, they will interact with their friends at school and with people at home when they are back fron schools escalating prevalence rate.

  3. Baliddawa Lazarus

    My suggestion is why can’t the president open up the economy allow the schools to open up and concentrate on the boarder points both manned and porous so that no body is allowed to proceed into the country before getting his results. Because the continued lockdown of the economy may result into an economic disaster which may be hard to come out, I see it very expensive to test a driver allow him to proceed get contacts you start tracing him with his contacts you get him with his 30 contacts quarantine them for the first 14 days, why not to keep one person at the boarder for maximum of 24 hrs before he comes to the public.

  4. Let the president of uganda continue with the measures that has been in place

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