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Is the transition from Gen Museveni to Gen Muhoozi already underway?

Museveni decorates Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the CDF and also his son, with a medal

 

 Without parliament, the president’s ministerial appointees cannot be confirmed. Thus, currently Uganda has neither a constituted executive nor legislature.

 

Kampala, Uganda | NEWS ANALYSIS -URN | The events of the last 72 hours have left the country stunned. Many have started asking who is in charge of the country: President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the president, or his son Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is also the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF). On Saturday, a joint security force stormed the home of the former Speaker of Parliament, Anita  Annet Among, put her under an unannounced house arrest, and then searched it for valuables.

The operation has since extended to her other homes at Ntinda, Kigo, Bukedea and Buyende. It has been reported that money, land titles, and luxurious cars, among other valuables, have been recovered. What set in motion these operations were the tweets by Gen Muhoozi complaining about apparent corruption related to Among after it became public that she had acquired a luxurious Rolls Royce vehicle valued at over $1 million.

What followed was the declaration that the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU) had withdrawn its support for Among and her former deputy Thomas Tayebwa. Before the week could end, the PLU, through its secretary general David Kabanda, announced that they were going to support former minister of defence Jacob Oboth-Oboth as the speaker of the 12th Parliament.

The NRM as of the time of writing this article, has not yet pronounced itself on who their candidate for speaker and deputy speaker would be. For PLU to move singlehandedly against Among, who has been one of the most powerful politicians in Uganda, has left many people wondering whether Museveni is still in charge or he has ceded power to his son, though unannounced.

We have interviewed a number of MPs in the yet-to-be-constituted 12th Parliament and former MPs of the 11th Parliament, close confidants to the former Speaker and Deputy Speaker and other political players to understand what is going on. All of them were granted anonymity to speak freely about the fast-unfolding story.

One thing that came out consistently, from all the sources we spoke to for this story, was that the transition from Museveni has already started.

“In the past, Museveni exercised ironclad control over the NRM and the general state machinery,” an MP from the ruling National Resistance Movement said. “When he decided on the matter, it was final. But now he can say we have decided this matter, but somehow it is reopened; he is no longer the Museveni we knew.”

“I thought that Museveni was going to use this term to gradually hand over power to Muhoozi. What I didn’t know is that he has already done it. Even if Museveni is the one who ordered an assault on Among, the fact that he has allowed his son to be the face of it suggests that he is exercising far more power than I thought,” another MP who has been close to Among said.

He added that even if Muhoozi is just executing Museveni’s duties by being the face of the assault on Among, this makes him extremely powerful not just in the NRM but also in the general state bureaucracy.

“With what we have seen, who can disregard Muhoozi now? When he talks now, everyone has to listen because his words have consequence,” the MP said.

President Yoweri Museveni was sworn in on May 12 for the seventh elective term. If he completes this term in 2031, he will have led Uganda for 45 years. Currently, although members of the 12th Parliament have been sworn in, Parliament is not yet fully constituted without the election of a speaker and deputy speaker. Without parliament, the president’s ministerial appointees cannot be confirmed. Thus, currently Uganda has neither a constituted executive nor legislature.

Anita Among and her husband Moses Magogo supposedly trying to make their came to Gen Muhoozi at Kololo during the swearing-in ceremony of President Museveni at Kololo

When Among adjourned parliament sine die in early May after passing the controversial Protection of Sovereignty Bill and indicated that new MPs were to be sworn in starting May 13, one former MP argued that this, though procedurally right, allowed her enemies manoeuvrability.

“In the previous parliaments, there were very few days between swearing in and the election of speaker. You remember in 2021, NRM CEC determined who would be their candidate just a day before the election. It would be very complicated for security to raid Among if she was still a speaker. I think she has been her own enemy on this. You don’t allow time for your enemy to organize and plan against you,” the former MP said.

Ignored signs of Muhoozi’s ascendence to Power

For the last two months, journalist Andrew Mwenda has used his column in The Independent Magazine to lay out for the country how Muhoozi has systematically taken over control and charge of the state. Mwenda is not just a journalist; he is the spokesperson of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU) and has got a close relationship with its chairperson, Muhoozi.

Mwenda has also got what can also be described as a good relationship with President Museveni. In fact, in an article we reviewed for this story, he talks about himself as “an outside insider to the system”. So, his talk is not simply speculation or analytical framing of an inquisitive journalist but is born out of proximity to power.

In fact, one can even go further by stating Mwenda, being Muhoozi’s spokesperson, is publicly stating Muhoozi’s views.

On March 12, Mwenda wrote that Among had become so powerful that it left no doubt she might be eyeing the presidency. Mwenda argued that Among had built a strong political base across the broad spectrum of power centres in the country, such as the NRM, parliament, the judiciary, the executive and other pillars of elite power that have become a cause for concern.

“Among holds a very tight grip over parliament, both among NRM and opposition legislators – not to mention independents,” Mwenda argued. “Using the large budget of parliament liberally, she has cajoled, intimidated, blackmailed and bought off many MPs to be subservient to her. Then she has used her role as speaker to gain control over the judiciary. How? All judges in Uganda are appointed with parliamentary approval. Among has used her role as chair of parliament’s appointments committee to ensure judges are loyal to her. Today, no case against her can succeed through the courts,” Mwenda warned..

He added that Among has also used the power she has accumulated to “dish out jobs to children, spouses and relatives of Ugandan elites in all spheres of our national life – bishops, ministers, sheikhs, muftis, top-ranking businesspeople, high-level civil servants, legislators, activists…” But what attracted most attention and blew away all pretence on the said presidency motive of Among was her involvement in the NRM politics and the extent to which she beat Kadaga for the position of NRM Second National Chairperson.

“Up until 2025, no one thought Among had a base within NRM,” Mwenda went on. ” She made a deliberate decision to expand her political base and capture the infrastructure of the party from the grassroots. To secure this election required her to penetrate the structures of NRM from the grassroots. This meant winning the support of sub-county chairpersons, district councillors, LC5 chairpersons and speakers; mayors of municipalities and town councils, and NRM district executives, who include the chairperson of the NRM in a district and their executives, plus winning over special interest groups such as women, youths, entrepreneurs, workers, PWDs and veterans… The magnitude of her victory in the party left many people gasping for breath. Basically, a newcomer into NRM now holds powerful cards in her hands: parliament, the executive, the party, the judiciary and many influential elites in the professions, religious organisations, businesses persons and among traditional leaders.”

He also disclosed that the only institution where Among’s influence had not extended was the security infrastructure. This is perhaps because Muhoozi, as the CDF, exercises a lot of control over these forces.

Before he was appointed, Museveni expanded the powers of the CDF to include almost those that previously had been exclusively for the Commander-in-Chief. In the last two years, Muhoozi has shaped the army in his image. He has purged it of enemies, perceived and real, by arresting some and retiring others. In fact, Mwenda says in another article that the work with the ministry of defence is now complete.

With all the power that Among had accumulated in other centres of power, Mwenda argues that it would be a big mistake to “disregard concerns about her growing power and influence in the country and the security infrastructure”.

 

Mwenda’s revelation about the fears of the rise of Among perhaps explains the actions of the last 72 hours. Reading these actions as simply a crackdown on corruption would fundamentally be a misreading of the situation. Mwenda tells us that “as Museveni ages, he has lost the energy and zest to fight different wars at multiple battlefronts.” This perhaps explains why Muhoozi has become more powerful and daring to seize power.

In another article in The Independent, Mwenda actually acknowledges that, indeed, Muhoozi might have wrestled power from his father when he remarks in an article written on May 12 under the headline, “Muhoozi’s anger at corruption”:

“If many roads are in a terrible state of disrepair, it is because both road reconstruction and road maintenance costs are grossly exaggerated. I have many actual examples of these abuses that make everyone sick to the stomach. Our country is getting to a level where interventions to correct these abuses may not follow the rule of law and due process. Public officials, please stand warned that the days of abuse cannot last forever.”

Have the interventions that do not follow the rule of law that Mwenda talked about started taking shape? Mwenda provides the answer in an article written on May 17 explaining how the country should interpret the raid on Among’s homes.

“The Saturday 3am SFC raid at the home of our pre-current speaker of parliament, Anita Annet Among (AAA), is unprecedented. The joint security operation at her home, confiscating anything and everything of value, including cash and other luxury items, speaks volumes. The action required bold decision-making and a stubborn resolution. And it is a vintage signature of the CDF, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba. Those who doubted him now know what kind of political animal Uganda has to contend with,” Mwenda writes.

He also notes that many Ugandan elites have failed or refused to understand the political animal that Muhoozi is and that they are stuck in the politics of tolerance and compromise that his father, President Museveni, has practised for so long.

Mwenda then says Muhoozi rejects this kind of politics not because he thinks it has necessarily been bad, but because he thinks Uganda has outgrown its usefulness. Then Mwenda implores his readers to understand the raid on Among’s house in that context. The context is simply that we are past Museveni, and it’s now Muhoozi’s politics at play.

In responding to this, one current MP said he awaits seeing the kind of cabinet that is going to be appointed.

“If it has Muhoozi’s loyalists and less of the kind of MPs we have had in the last time, we shall know the metamorphosis is complete,” the former MP said. “Then we shall have to make a choice of whether to seek asylum or remain.”

 

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