The tragedy of Bobi Wine

Why is very difficult for Uganda’s opposition to self correct and contribute meaningfully to the country

THE LAST WORD | ANDREW M. MWENDA | Uganda’s opposition has missed many opportunities to contribute meaningfully to our national development. This is because they have adopted a wrong strategy in their politics. They seek to capture power from President Yoweri Museveni. Period. Yet Museveni has effective personal control over the core elements of the state: its finances, its propaganda machinery, the security forces, and even the Electoral Commission. Thus, he has created a situation where the opposition go into elections where their chance of winning is close to zero. They know and appreciate this fact.

Consequently, the opposition has designed a second plan, i.e., to use election campaigns as an opportunity to mobilize the population for a popular insurrection and bring Museveni down through mass protests. This second option has consistently failed since 2006. Why? First, the organizational resources required to implement such a strategy are too complex and vast for the opposition to marshal. Second, to execute such a strategy requires a large urban population. But Uganda’s urban population is only 30%. And historically, urban areas have never formed the NRM’s social base. The party is rooted in rural areas, which host 70% of the population.

Besides, the Museveni system is so well organised that it is easy for the state to penetrate urban society and disorganize, manipulate, bribe, cajole and demobilize any planned mass action. Indeed, each time the opposition has attempted mass insurrection (the best example being the walk-to-work), the Museveni system has been very quick and effective in penetrating the opposition, bribing some of its leaders and co-opting them, intimidating and jailing some, sowing seeds of discord and confusion in their ranks and, thereby demobilizing the infrastructure for mass insurrection.

So in such circumstances the best option for the opposition is to find ways to work with Museveni. This means that rather than look at elections as an opportunity to defeat him or to stimulate mass insurrection, they should see elections as a way to build a strong post-election negotiating position. The opposition performance was very good in the 2006, 2016 and 2021 elections. Instead of using this strength to engage in negotiations with Museveni, they saw it as an opportunity to chest-thump, to posture, and to act arrogant and bellicose. In the process they have missed the best chance to participate in national development.

The reason for this failure is that the opposition has always adopted a strategy of “all or none” (we either get everything we want or nothing). That is a disastrous strategy given their weakness relative to Museveni. Each time an opportunity to negotiate with the government has arisen, the leader of the opposition, especially Dr. Kizza Besigye, and now Bobi Wine, have put forth conditions that are so unrealistic that they sound delusional. Indeed, they behave as if they were the stronger party. The vanquished cannot dictate terms to the victor in any negotiation. It is victors that do.

For instance, in 2011-2012, I worked with Conrad Nkutu to arrange a talk between Museveni and Besigye and the wider opposition. Besigye gave us five conditions for the talk, and Museveni gave four. During the discussions for these talks, Besigye rejected all the conditions from Museveni, and the president gracefully withdrew them. On the other hand, Besigye stuck to all his conditions, and Museveni gracefully accepted them.

Here was a defeated Besigye (he had won only 26% against Museveni’s 68% in the 2011 elections) dictating terms to a victorious Museveni, and he (Museveni) had gracefully accepted Besigye’s conditions. I was getting irritated by Besigye’s intransigence. I then asked Museveni why he had withdrawn all his conditions and accepted all Besigye’s conditions. The president told me he didn’t want me or anyone else to think that he is against talks with Besigye. He said he wanted to prove to me that Besigye has always been the obstacle to any talks. And he did.

The opposition in Uganda has two major problems. The first is that it has an exaggerated sense of moral superiority. They believe that their cause is so self-evidently moral, noble, pure and righteous. As a result, they believe that everyone, except the ignorant and those that Museveni has bribed, agrees or has to agree with them. Second, and as a result of the first, they believe public sympathy from the unfairnesses, injustices and brutalities that Museveni inflicts on them is a sufficient political force for their politics.

Consequently, they do not listen to any of their alternative views, and whenever and wherever they do, they respond with vitriol: insults, labels, name-calling and abuses rather than logical arguments and reasons. This self-righteousness is a much more stubborn thing to deal with than self-interest.

Thirdly, they are unable to see that many Ugandans may generally like and admire Museveni, others may be indifferent to him, while the rest that may even dislike the president are not necessarily attracted to them. The fact that a man has been abusing his wife and she has left him doesn’t mean that she will automatically fall in love with the next guy that shows up telling her love stories. In fact, such a woman is less likely to embrace the next guy who comes telling her love stories due to her past experience.

Equally, therefore, many Ugandans who have been disappointed by Museveni and are frustrated by his government are less inclined to buy the opposition promises of emancipation. Remember Museveni came promising the same things that the opposition are promising and hasn’t delivered on many of them. So many Ugandans have become cynical. They no longer see politics as a vehicle for progressive change. Instead, they see politics, both in the government and the opposition as characterized by greed and selfishness.This is why voter turnout in the last election was 52.4%. If we are to discount vote-stuffing that takes place, it’s around 40%.

Therefore, for most Ugandans, the opposition’s assumption of occupying a moral high ground is actually a delusion. What the opposition need to do is step down from that self-assumed moral pedestal to the hard ground of reality, of realpolitik. They need to recognize that they are not crusaders in a moral contest but politicians in a civic struggle. Such sobering advice is what they reject every day, yet it is what they need. To participate meaningfully in our politics and contribute effectively to national development, they need to find the courage, just like Nelson Mandela and Raila Odinga, to talk to Museveni. Otherwise they will keep losing and crying.

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amwenda@ugindependent.co.ug