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How Museveni plans to win 2021 elections

A brand new broom?

The emergence of Bobi Wine certainly presents the president with a new challenge. In many ways, he represents a new breed of leader. Unlike Amama Mbabazi and Kizza Besigye who are both former NRM generals, Bobi Wine is seen as a brand new broom. This means that he is not tainted by involvement with the NRM, and represents an unknown quantity for whom Museveni has yet to develop an effective strategy.

Indeed, the Kyadondo East first time legislator has never been in politics or national leadership in any form. He comes with no broken promises, zero political baggage and a clean record as a man of the people. The audience he has amassed through his music over the decades believes that he speaks for them and no one else, and is keen to be represented by one of their own at the highest level.

In this sense, one of Wine’s greatest qualities is his perceived authenticity: he is one hundred per cent from the ghetto. In fact, before his shot at politics he was called the ghetto president. As a musician, his genre is popular with vast swathes of Ugandans, making him appear to be in tune with the thoughts and tastes of the people he seeks to lead.

While not much has been revealed about his performance as MP for Kyadondo East, his constituency seems to be happy with him. Whether this is because he has delivered on his promises, or because his constituents believe that he will one day deliver them the presidency, is hard to tell. What is clear is that Uganda’s newest political entrepreneur’s star continues to rise.

The more things change, the more they stay the same

Yet despite all these advantages, it would be foolish to expect Bobi Wine to win – even if his United Forces for Change alliance with Kizza Besigye proves to be durable.

Personality, charisma and an unblemished record is important. But it is structures and networks that enable candidates to connect to voters that win elections – and control of the security forces and the electoral commission that enable the incumbent to outmanoeuvre their rivals. No matter who he partners with, Bobi Wine will not have these things at his disposal, and so the smart money will be on President Museveni to further extend his already lengthy stay in office.

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Sakwa M. James is a Communications Consultant and Current Affairs Commentator based in Nairobi.

8 comments

  1. Archbishop Desmond Tutu

    But surely, how does one read past the mathematical and statistical errors within the first paragraph.
    How could Museveni win by 65.75% as opposed to Besigye’s 35.37%. This already is greater than 100% even without including the other candidates in the race.

  2. Your post is outdated, now that Mr Besigye is not standing it gives Hon kyaguranyi more chances of winning. moreover the youth are the majority weather in villages or urban centers.

  3. The reality is bobi should plan post m7 …coz we already know the winner.how do u claim to have youth support and end up with only 2% yet now your fighting one with 79%??????

  4. the reality z that m7 remains our president

  5. Museveni cannot win this election, may be if he rig, and rigging will lead to his worst overthrow

  6. Jordan Ashaba, Bobi wine worn by 97% in youth election, that’s the fact news and meadia fear to post

  7. 65.75 plus 35.37 yields 101.12. Is the author using clues to indicate how elections are won and lost? In Africa, the key to becoming a president is already being one unless the forces are surely underpaid and disgruntled. A well oiled machine like the “UPDF”, SFC, UPF will at all times carry out suppression of any form of threat to prolonging Mr. M7’s long and disastrous reign. nevertheless, NUP and other opposition political actors have still failed to field candidates in all villages not only for youth but all levels of representation.

  8. U r only strangling for new face President, you want change,what has He not changed,there is no peace and you want to bring peace, wats about rioting. Just blame your selves for your failure.
    Only fighters can fight for this country and singers to sing songs of victory. Museni oye

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