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The forces behind Venezuela’s Maduro-Guaido power struggle

FILE PHOTO: Nicolas Maduro

Caracas, Venezuela | AFP | By declaring himself acting president, Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido sparked a leadership battle with the head of state, Nicolas Maduro.

As the power struggle rages, here are details about both men’s most powerful allies:

– Maduro –

THE MILITARY:

Maduro’s most significant domestic backing comes from the military high command, which has repeatedly affirmed its loyalty to him. It did so again on Thursday, denouncing what it called an attempted “coup d’etat.”

Of 32 government ministers, nine are from the military and control key portfolios such as defense, interior, agriculture and food, as well as the state oil company PDVSA — vital in a country that brings in 96 percent of its revenues from crude — and the intelligence services.

Also under military control is a television station, a bank and a vehicle assembly plant.

INTERNATIONAL CREDITORS AND ALLIES:

China is owed $20 billion dollars by Venezuela and on Thursday said it “opposes interference in Venezuelan affairs by external forces,” after Guaido received backing from the United States and other key countries.

Russia is Venezuela’s second-largest creditor and also supplies military backing: in December it sent two bombers and 100 officers to take part in joint exercises. President Vladimir Putin has called Maduro to offer his “support.”

Fellow left-wing regimes in countries such as Cuba, Bolivia and Uruguay have announced their continued recognition of Maduro, 56, who can also count Turkey, Iran and North Korea among his allies.

JUDICIARY:

The Supreme Court is made up of regime loyalists appointed rapidly by the legislature in 2015, when it was still in government hands. The opposition had won elections and was just days away from assuming its majority.

The court declared the opposition-controlled National Assembly legislature in contempt in 2016 and has since annulled all its decisions. On Thursday, it reiterated support for Maduro.

Attorney General Tarek William Saab is another government partisan.

CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY:

During four months of violence in 2017 that left 125 people dead, Maduro called for the creation of a Constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution. The opposition boycotted elections to name its members, branding it “illegal,” meaning it is made up entirely of government stalwarts. It declared itself the government branch with supreme power and took over legislative functions.

NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL:

The National Electoral Council (CNE) is headed by Tibisay Lucena, who is openly pro-regime and under whose leadership several opposition parties have been barred.

The CNE also declared its backing for Maduro on Thursday.

Alongside the Supreme Court, it passed decisions in 2016 to block an opposition-called recall referendum against Maduro.

Alleging a lack of guarantees or impartiality, opposition parties have boycotted the last few elections, including in May 2018, when Maduro was reelected to a second term in office. The European Union, the United States and the Organization of American States branded the election a fraud.

– Guaido –

UNITED STATES:

The US, EU and several Latin American countries rejected Maduro’s re-election last year.

No sooner had Guaido, 35, declared himself acting president on Wednesday than President Donald Trump gave him official US recognition. Regional players including Brazil, Argentina and Colombia followed suit.

The EU called for “an immediate political process leading to free and credible elections,” but stopped short of recognizing Guaido’s claim.

But on Friday, both Spain and Germany said they were prepared to acknowledge Guaido if Maduro fails to hold elections soon. Britain described Guaido as “the right person to take Venezuela forward.”

OAS head Luis Almagro was another to recognize Guaido.

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY:

The National Assembly, dominated by the opposition, was elected in 2015 after the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) coalition delivered the regime its biggest-ever defeat.

Since assuming the legislature’s presidency on January 5, Guaido began pressing for a “transitional government” and new elections, while calling on the military to break free of the government in exchange for amnesty.

The National Assembly declared Maduro a “usurper,” but remains largely impotent due to the Supreme Court’s contempt verdict.

EXILED JUDICIARY:

A parallel Supreme Court named by the opposition majority in the National Assembly but operating in exile praised Guaido’s move.

Former attorney general Luisa Ortega, who fled Venezuela in August 2017 after she was dismissed by the Constituent Assembly, gave her “support and recognition” to the “new president.”

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