Kyankwanzi, Tenfold Growth Strategy and two things the 2026–2031 government should focus on

MORRISON RWAKAKAMBA | COMMENT | The ongoing Kyankwanzi retreat discussions have mostly focused on the prosperity of Ugandans. In consideration of the foregoing, the most vital document presented and discussed over and over again was “Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy”. This document outlines a journey map that would take Uganda from a $50 billion economy to a $500 billion economy (2023-2040).

Uganda has a rosary of challenges and needs – including debt obligations. I would therefore suggest that the 2026–2031 government, with full flagship, focus on two core things.

A: Massively Scale Up Reliable, Affordable Electricity (Energy Infrastructure).

Uganda currently has ~2,050 MW of installed capacity but needs at least 8,000–20,000 MW (or more) to support the mechanization, automation, industrialization, and export-led manufacturing required for 10x growth.

Indeed, the official Tenfold Growth Strategy document explicitly notes that a 10-fold economic expansion — especially with upgraded manufacturing processes — will drive energy demand up dramatically (potentially requiring a 4x–10x increase in generation).

Without abundant, cheap, and stable power, factories cannot run efficiently, agro-processing and mineral value addition stall, and productivity gains remain limited. Continuing heavy investment in hydro, solar, geothermal, and eventual nuclear — while fixing transmission/distribution losses and lowering industrial tariffs — is non-negotiable. Electricity is the backbone that enables the ATMS pillars (Agro-industrialization, Tourism, Mineral-based industrialization, and Science/Technology/Innovation).

B: Aggressively Expand the Formal Economy and Private Investment (Through Derisking, Monetization, and Entrepreneurship).

The strategy itself prioritizes two core outcomes: increasing returns from public investment and competitively growing the share of the formal economy for a larger revenue base.

This means:

* Shifting millions from subsistence farming into commercial agriculture, value addition, and formal businesses (via programs like the Parish Development Model, but with much higher execution intensity).
* Derisking the economy to attract massive private investment (both local and FDI, targeting a jump from ~US$3 billion to US$50 billion annually).
* Building a larger, higher-quality entrepreneurial class, expanding exports, and improving budget efficiency while fighting corruption and leakages.
This includes formalizing more businesses, boosting domestic savings (from ~20% to 40% of GDP), enhancing skills/human capital, and creating an enabling environment for the private sector to drive growth in the ATMS sectors.

Indeed the two above are interdependent: abundant electricity powers industrialization and formal businesses, while a growing formal/private sector creates the demand and revenue to justify and sustain massive energy investments.

Overall, other elements of the strategy (human capital/skills, transport infrastructure, governance, and focusing on the four ATMS pillars) are critical enablers, but energy and formal private-sector expansion are the two biggest structural bottlenecks and multipliers. Without decisive action on both, the 10-fold target risks remaining aspirational rather than achievable.

And yes, the motto on this journey map should perhaps be ‘Quick EXECUTION’. Stealth EXECUTION.

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Morrison Rwakakamba, coffee farmer — Rukungiri District.