Defecting MPs punished, but for what?

Kampala, Uganda | THE INDEPENDENT | Only four of the 16 incumbent Members of Parliament who changed political party allegiance ahead of the Presidential and Parliamentary Elections held last week have managed to retain their seats in parliament.

Former Leader of the Opposition Betty Aol Ochan and Asinansi Nyakato who crossed from the Forum for Democratic Change to Patriotic Front for Freedom, managed to retain their seats as woman MPs for Gulu and Hoima cities, respectively.

Similarly, former FDC members Anthony Akol of Kilak North County and Ojara Mapenduzi, who is in parliament as an independent member also retained their seats after crossing to the ruling National Resistance Movement.

But all five incumbents who left NUP to join other political parties lost their seats. This, according to political analyst Mwambutsya Ndebesa was a protest vote by the constituents because their representatives had involved themselves in scandals, and therefore they chose new NUP flagbearers who replaced them.

Of the five, only Bukoto South’s Twaha Kagabo left NUP to join NRM. Former Leader of the Opposition Mathias Mpuuga, who left to form DF, only emerged second in the Nyendo – Mukungwe parliamentary race last week.

Two MPs who joined DF; Kimaanya-Kabonera’s Abed Bwanika and Masaka City Woman MP Juliet Nakabuye Kakande also lost to NUP candidates.  Only Entebbe Municipality’s Michael Kakembo lost to an NRM flagbearer.

“They had lost legitimacy in the eyes of the voters and were being seen as fortune seekers,” Mwabutsya says referring to the Mpuuga group’s fallout over accusations of accepting a five hundred million shilling “service award”.

For the other defecting MPs who lost, such as those who left FDC to join PFF like Kira Municipality’s Ibrahim Semujju Nganda who was defeated by NUP’s George Musisi, Ndebesa says the dynamics were different, noting that PFF erred not to field a presidential candidate in the just-concluded elections.

For him, the absence of Col Dr Kiiza Besigye in the general campaigns and the absence of a prominent and nationally appealing face could have demoralised some voters from electing PFF leaning candidates.

Kabale Municipality saw PFF’s Nicholas Kamara who left FDC lose to NRM’s Andrew Aja Baryayanga who got 7,973 votes against the incumbent’s 7313 votes.

Atkins Godfrey Katusabe was defeated by long-time rival Crispus Kiyonga NRM in Bukonzo County West just like Francis Mwijukye of Buhweju County and Moses Kabusu of Kyamuswa County who also lost to NRM flagbearers.

PFF’s Harold Muhindo of Bukonzo East lost to NRM’s Julius Monday Rude.

But on defections, Yusuf Serunkuma who is an academic, said defections and re-alliances with others are actually a good thing for politics, especially in a country where parties are not actually parties in the ordinary sense.

“These re-alliances are not built on ideas or ideologies, but rather grievances,” Serunkuma said. “PFF and DF are the best examples of grievance-based parties.”

For the wins and losses, Serunkuma says they need to be analyzed case by case, as in some cases, one’s party has influence over the outcome.

“… if NUP, like George Musisi, you benefit from the wave (2021, 2026), or like NRM’s Ruhindi, Minsa Kabanda and others you benefit from connections to power”, he said referring to the defeat of Semujju in Kira.

Meanwhile, Jonam County MP Ongiertho Emmanuel left FDC and joined the NRM but was defeated by an independent candidate in the January 15th elections.

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URN