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The $4 billion-plus pipeline, now about 79% complete, is designed to export crude from Uganda’s Lake Albert oilfields to Tanzania’s Indian Ocean port of Tanga
Kampala, ganda | JULIUS BUSINGE | Uganda is approaching a pivotal economic moment, according to Stanbic Bank Uganda Chief Executive Mumba Kalifungwa, who said the country must actively convert rising macroeconomic momentum into broad-based prosperity rather than treat growth as an abstract headline figure.
Speaking at the fifth Stanbic Economic Forum in Kampala, held under the theme “Uganda’s Inflection Point: Competing in a Rewired Global Economy,” Kalifungwa pointed to the near completion of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline as the single most consequential development in Uganda’s modern economic history.
The $4 billion-plus pipeline, now about 79% complete, is designed to export crude from Uganda’s Lake Albert oilfields to Tanzania’s Indian Ocean port of Tanga. With an estimated 1.6 billion barrels of recoverable reserves and projected peak production of 230,000 barrels a day, first oil—expected later this year—could materially alter Uganda’s fiscal and external position.
“This is not just about barrels per day,” Kalifungwa told policymakers, investors and business executives gathered at the forum. “It is about reshaping Uganda’s fiscal position, industrial capability and regional standing.”
Oil as catalyst, not cure
Kalifungwa stressed that the oil and gas sector’s long-term value extends beyond export receipts. He cited job creation across the supply chain, local content development, skills transfer and domestic supplier growth as the deeper structural gains.
Uganda’s strategy has centred on building domestic capacity alongside infrastructure investment, an approach the government argues will anchor industrialisation rather than create a narrow enclave economy.
Kalifungwa also framed Uganda’s opportunity within a shifting global landscape, citing supply-chain realignments, evolving trade regimes and uncertainty around the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). He flagged artificial intelligence as both a risk and an opening, noting forecasts that Africa’s AI market could nearly quadruple by 2030.
“AI is no longer a distant frontier,” he said. “The question is not whether Uganda participates, but how inclusively and competitively it does so.”
Stanbic, a subsidiary of South Africa’s Standard Bank Group, has operated in Uganda for more than 35 years. Kalifungwa said the lender’s strategy is anchored in financial inclusion, enterprise development, infrastructure finance, climate resilience and corporate philanthropy, with a focus on women, youth and smallholder farmers.
Growth momentum building
The forum’s keynote speaker, Jibran Qureishi, Head of Africa Regions Economic Research at Standard Bank Group, outlined an increasingly optimistic macroeconomic trajectory.
Following growth of roughly 6.3% in the 2024/25 financial year, Qureishi projected expansion of between 6.5% and 6.7% in 2025/26, with output potentially approaching or exceeding 7% in 2026/27.
The acceleration is expected to be driven largely by oil-sector investment and sustained public infrastructure spending.
Still, he cautioned that the most pronounced macroeconomic gains from oil—particularly fiscal revenues, foreign-exchange earnings and improvements in the balance of payments—are likely to emerge closer to 2030, reflecting the gradual ramp-up typical of global production cycles.
Qureishi credited the government for maintaining fiscal discipline over the past decade, particularly its decision to avoid prematurely monetising anticipated oil revenues. That restraint, he said, has helped preserve macroeconomic stability and investor confidence at a time when many resource-rich economies have struggled with debt and volatility.
FX buffer strengthens
Uganda’s external position has also improved sharply. Gross foreign-exchange reserves have risen from around $3 billion at the end of 2024 to nearly $6 billion by December 2025, according to Qureishi, bolstering import cover and reflecting a stronger balance of payments.
The recovery provides policymakers with a buffer against global shocks, including commodity-price swings and tightening global financial conditions.
But strong headline indicators do not automatically translate into improved living standards. Qureishi warned that capital-intensive growth, a large informal sector, inflation shocks since the Covid-19 pandemic and fiscal adjustments supported by the International Monetary Fund have widened the gap between macroeconomic expansion and household welfare.
“The challenge we face is increasingly about asset holders versus non-asset holders,” he said, cautioning that unresolved economic disparities can evolve into social and political pressures.
