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Uganda and Rwanda’s slippery slope

Rwandan president Paul Kagame (L) and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni

Why the current situation between Kampala and Kigali needs to be deescalated before it leads to disaster

THE LAST WORD | ANDREW M. MWENDA | The conflict between Uganda and Rwanda is escalating and, if not arrested, will most likely lead to war. Last week, Uganda claimed that Rwandan troops had crossed into Uganda and shot two people dead. Rwanda said the incident took place on its soil. Given the circumstances, the facts do not really matter. In such tense situations, these incidents only provide propaganda value to partisans on each side to prove their side to be the aggrieved party.

Both sides have deployed their armies across the common border in irritating contact with each other. Mid last year, President Paul Kagame asked me to inform President Yoweri Museveni that Rwanda will never fire the first shot. Museveni has told me he does not want a war with Rwanda because such a war would be stupid. I believe both presidents would like to avoid a war. However, incidents like the one that happened last week can easily and rapidly turn a tense situation into a military conflagration.

Given the circumstances, a war between Uganda and Rwanda is possible and most likely may become inevitable. We always forget that individuals often have defective control over events that lead to war. A war between Uganda and Rwanda would be stupid. But this does not make it impossible. Wars can erupt even when leaders on both sides are committed to avoiding them. One small incident, like what happened last week, can escalate a quarrel to a standoff.

Whenever there is a standoff, a series of statements and incidents can induce leaders to take actions that escalate the situation in order to preserve their reputation of being tough, or to uphold their honour, than stand down and be seen as weak and/or cowardly. And once a country orders its military to be on alert, it becomes ever more difficult to control subsequent events. This is because miscalculations and misunderstandings can easily and rapidly escalate a situation beyond the leader’s original intent.

Carl von Clausewitz, the greatest contemporary military strategist and theoretician, argued that war is “the realm of uncertainty.” Most of the factors that drive nations to war are based on information that is often not very certain; all too often leaders have to second-guess their opponent’s intentions. While each side’s plan (which may be purely defensive) can be seen, its intentions cannot be inferred from those plans. So the other side sees defensive plans as offensive and menacing. It is this that escalates the situation from its defensive to an offensive posture.

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105 comments

  1. Adrhis Lamster Oyang

    Over the years, Uganda and Rwanda had everything to show other regional and great lakes states and far reaching East African Community that they are the cause to believing that peace is possible at all levels. Now, with the loggerhead between the two heads of states, no one is seems to understand that the protagonists in peace building and leaders with wealth of experience in internal conflicts can engage in this mouse and cat game. Interestingly, President Museveni has been a little reserve and it appears he is more of strategist rather than provocative. On the other hands, Mr. Kagame seems to be so bothered by such silence and doing all it takes to break the silence of his counterparts.

    Deservingly, the two leaders are widely known for their patriotic legacy for both countries during the post independence era to date. If there is war to be, then the ugly truth shall be well understood and Ugandans and Rwandans will be told the truth hidden behind the two leaders. As a Ugandan, I feel our territorial sovereign integrity and freedom must be upheld and respected by all regional states and if Kagame feel he is grieved, then he should take it to the platform for which he leads in the East African Community for redress and not taking the unfettered discretionary powers vested in his presidential immunity to kill Ugandans from their home soil. Adrhis Lamster Oyang; 0772826780

    • First let me begin by thanking Andrew for the valuable analysis.

      @Yang, we don’t know exactly how it happened at the border when one Ugandan and Rwandan died, so don’t be quick to point a finger…
      Rwanda clearly says there was a smuggling case and the security agents wanted to stop it, the smugglers started fighting where the agents reacted by shooting in self defence.
      If you ask how the body ended up on if side,
      Rwanda asks why their goods and motorbike ended on the Rwanda side.

      • https://www.newtimes.co.rw/news/gps-coordinates-show-nyagatare-smuggler-was-killed-rwandan-territory-not-uganda
        It is good to listen to both sides and weigh the evidence indeed. These smugglers are so bold that they chase security organs with machetes fearlessly.
        This is a very small matter and it was blown out of proportion to score a point.
        Who doesn’t know Bakiga? They are very big-headed and the government should not drag itself into their quarrels. If the soldiers had not ran, you would be counting more bodies…..of machetes. But it is evident the shooting was done inside Rwanda.

        • Saddened Ugandan

          Really? Tribes? Bakiga are big headed? Frankly, it’s not Bakiga who are associated with machete wielding mobs. I can’t believe one would even go there.

        • Saddened Ugandan

          Newtimes is so full of hilarious propaganda that nobody takes it seriously. Not a single article with hints of shortcommings or limitations or even room for improvement among Rwanda’s leadership. Notice how nobody ever dares to post comments the newtimes website. That one would even publically share a link from newtimes is beyond hilarious. That according to newtimes… lol

        • Saddened Ugandan

          Newtimes is kimansulo-style propaganda. Worthless besides its entertainment value, which it gets from being so over the top. Too extra. lol

        • Julius twongyeirwe

          So, can you provide evidence that Bakiga crossed the boarder into Rwanda with machetes? You can always argue along informed lines, please.

    • Mugasha Wilson

      Thank you Adris. This business of attacking & killing people in Uganda should stop. If President Kagame doesn’t know that his guys r killing people here, then it’s his officers doing it.

    • Waiting for this SONA, the Presidents torch on the issue will determine what’s what, I bet Paul will be tuned in too.

  2. Adrhis Lamster Oyang

    Great minds will always bring the best and so the best is in Independence Magazine.

  3. “Anyone on either side who believes they can accurately predict the outcome of such a war is mistaken big time.” so says Mwenda.
    In a paper I forget, a clever analyst wrote to both presidents of Rwanda and Uganda and compared them to Python (Uganda) and Cobra (Rwanda) then proceeded to create a scenario where the python constricted the smaller cobra but in the process the cobra struck with both fangs and ejaculated voluminous venom into Python. Scavengers found two dead bodies after the struggle. So it is an effort in futility.

  4. Lord have mercy. Indeed one of the leaders must purport to be very weak, extremely not interested and treat all incidents with contempt in its real sense (if not beneath contempt).And in my opinion, that should be the old man with a hat since he’s the elder of the region.

    • Julius twongyeirwe

      The impact of power hunger. These people, museveni and kagame have overstayed in power. They need to be overthrown.

  5. kambere godfrey

    It gets more bizarre when you state that the facts do not really matter. The conflict has exposed the two leaders for exactly what they stand for. Pawning the lives of their citizens into senseless and endless conflicts for all the time they have been in power. It is such an unfortunate stroke of bad luck to be a poor country that prides itself in being a natural arbiter in this conflict prone great lakes region.Eventually you become part of the problem-in the wider scheme of things . The Rwandese have a reason to be jittery . But for a war to erupt- far from it .The tensions will simmer on and on.As patriotic citizens the death of the two people should be highly condemned – the elites do not appreciate the situation of the poor trying to eke a living illicitly in a border area.

  6. Truth often sacrificed for the sake of stability and peace.

  7. Saddened Ugandan

    Which side it occurred is secondary and even irrelevant in the face of the fact that Rwandan soldiers have killed civilians along the border, and it’s not the first time since Rwanda closed its border. What could possibly warrant the use of lethal force against civilians along the border? Smuggling? Even the brandishing of machetes as claimed by some… surely warning shots in the air would have sent any mob of villagers scampering for safety. Makes one question the veracity of the rest of the claims made in defence of Rwandan soldiers who killed civilians.

    How the motorcycle and goods ended up once side and the bodies on the other is simple… they were abandoned as the victims fled to Uganda for their safety, hoping Rwandan bullets wouldn’t be fired into Uganda. As earlier noted, the location of the incident becomes irrelevant when considering the fact that two civilians have been added to the list of people killed by Rwandan bullets since Rwanda closed its border.

    If it had been Ugandan bullets, can you imagine the threats and abuses we would be hearing by now? In fact, we have already been hearing threats and abuses… by now maybe it would be full on war if it was Ugandan soldiers who killed civilians along the border.

    Civilians have died. Who benefits from this kind of tension and what do those causing and participating in it hope to gain?

  8. ejakait engoraton

    With all due respect to MWENDA and his “credentials”, the triviality of this issue can not be more exemplified by the fact that KAGAME has to use MWENDA as an emissary to pass on a message to MUSEVENI.

    What next, a message written on toilet paper.

  9. Saddened Ugandan

    And then the complete lack of remorse over the killings… that’s a major red flag indicating that Rwanda is up to no good. Should Uganda be warning Ugandans that, “Don’t go to Rwanda, they can even shoot you on sight just because they don’t like your face and they won’t even be even a little bit sorry because for them it’s Rwanda and in Rwanda they can do whatever they want to Ugandans.” …and then do like Rwanda and start beating and shooting those who ignore the warning intended to keep them safe from harm?

    Things of Rwanda.

  10. On which side of border were the two men were shot, has all of a sudden become a very big issue, yet the death should be most regrettable regardless of what side of the border between two sister communities, let real neutral authority tell us, on which side the shooting and subsequent deaths occured and let the findings be made loud and clear, then what exactly happened and why it happened may be discussed in a sober manner, otherwise power gluttony can lead to all sorts of silly games.

  11. Ugandans have longed for something to rally around, Rwanda just provided it! ” Mujje tuluumbe”

  12. Given the situation as it stands and continues to escalate,it is indeed absurd that these two iconic leaders have have put their egos in front of peoples well being and security.we all know these tensions aren’t affecting any of the two giants but the common/ordinary citizens of both communities.for what started in February as a small issue, to escalate up to this magnitude,can only tell that these two pk and m7 they don’t care about the ordinary man.

  13. Mr. M7 had previously told diplomats that Ugandans have other means to trade their goods in Rwanda and said himself “through smuggling” as if he was promoting such stupid business. He should be held responsible for any Ugandan or/and Rwandan shot through that dirty business, cause as president our fellow brothers&sisters (Ugandans), he should discourage rather promoting smuggling business

    • Saddened Ugandan

      He didn’t promote smuggling. He was stating a simple fact of life… smuggling and black market economics are created and fueled by things like closing borders. One must ask, who then is really encouraging smuggling? First, we heard that the border was closed because of renovations. Then, we heard that there is a problem, and that the problem is “political”. Anyway, it’s up to Rwanda to open or close its borders the way it wants, but then what does it mean for EAC? AU? That all those meetings and declarations were just for show?

  14. Honestly we should thank president Museveni for the way he has handled this Rwanda issue. His silence amidst provocation shows leadership, while Rwanda’s actions portray arrogance, naivety and a Country run on propaganda and lies. Uganda has no role in this impasse because its Rwanda that closed the boarder and killing unnamed civilians, do you kill your people because they are smuggling? Or even if Rwanda’s claim that civilians attacked with machete’s if the soldiers fired in the air, which civilian would stand a bullet when he has a machete?. Secondly Rwanda’s major claim for closing the boarder that Uganda was arresting its citizens is a scapegoat too, any informed person knows how Rwandan security operatives used to freely enter Uganda and kidnap Rwandan refugees like Lt Joel mutabaazi, something that is against international law, and which actions even prompted UN to protest to the government of Uganda. Did Rwanda expect Uganda to sit and watch?

    • President Museveni is a true leader. I should remind you qualities of a good leader: a good leader is a good listener. Good leaders are patient and think critically…. That’s our president HE. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni.

      I sincerely appreciate President Museveni’s silence. He is not emotional…..
      That’s partly defines a good leader…. And I should remind you that: that’s why President Museveni has managed to rule Our country Uganda for over 32 years. Simply because he bares all the qualities of a good leader.

      So for that matter therefore I request that all Ugandans should keep calm and pray for our leaders

  15. It’s very surprising to see those allies falling apart! Will there be Fast African federation? I only see disintegration… East African community fell apart because of quarrel among the countries, Uganda being at the top of it at that time.There’s an hidden agenda in this game… Let us watch this game till the end there we see the champions or the losers

  16. Big or small, size doesn’t matter what I know once the war idea is started as many are talking about of which may be salt is added in to tea, it is written sek and thou shalt find .Others are waiting to use it as stepping stone so whatever always comes out is innocent pple suffering
    People power among others must be waiting for anything and they give it life
    One day God will make away so let’s be careful I don’t know what really is being fought for at least Sudan they have oil issues understood what about Uganda and Rwanda what is it that the big men cant agree upon really who has a big head ? coz citizens are the ones who are suffering losses on their businesses life is hard
    The level of crime in Uganda is very high and instead of fighting it we are extending to neighbours soon Sudan will experience it again, Kenya and Tz as well then really something must be wrong some where
    So leaders let’s not put the life of others in a mess get a solution early enough God bless you as you commence

  17. Uganda can not defeat Rwanda given the political nature of the country.Anything that can remove or Jill museveni can be easily be sponsored by Ugandans themselves who are sick and tired of the old mzee

  18. godfrey kambere

    It was the ancient Sun Tzu who is said to have written that there is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare. Kenya has tactfully sidestepped its warring neighbours, Tanzania after chasing Idi Amin went back to rebuild their country Uganda after the Rwanda genocide ventured into Congo where is our sense of achievement if our neighbours feel uneasy all the time? It is a miracle that we still have an economy to talk about. If memory serves me right the Ugandan shilling began its downward spiral when our army ventured into congo. In 1997 trading at 1000 shs per US dollar it jumped to 1500 shs a dollar and has never gone back. Then the media was reassuring the public of war booty from the congo gold fields . Am certain that apart from the brides that came with their husbands in the army ,the only other beneficiaries were indidual army officers. Was there any fanfare when the army left Congo?

  19. Julius twongyeirwe

    Let anyone provide an evidence that Ugandans crossed borderline into Rwanda with machetes.
    Nothing, in my opinion should let us forget that these power hungry men (Kagame and Museveni) have some agenda little known to us.

    We pray they sort out fast or be candidates of ICC as they leave power in future.

    • Saddened Ugandan

      IC what? IC who? Hahaha! You’re going to pay my hospital bills caused by overlaughing. ICC is an institution for colonialists. That we can even report to ICC… waaahahaha! You report. Hahaha.

  20. 1.Just a minute;i have never heard Rwanda make a travel advisory to its citizens when there is a threat of Ebola in Uganda so definitely the travel advisory it has circulated to its citizens against traveling to Uganda was definitely made in bad faith.
    2.I used to think that Kagame was ”Up there”kuumbe waapi.
    3.Threats of war and Economic sabotage are normal but the quality of disputes should bother us.USA has issues with China’s Hauwei we should have that kind of Economic feud but it seems Rwanda is just black mailing Kampala coz of the economic leaps and bounds it has make; all the same, il just love the “class” M7 and Kampala have exhibited in this Rwanda/Kampala feud.
    4.Almost on a daily basis Air Rwanda is landing at Entebbe and there is no incidence.
    5.Tell me who can even recognize the Rwandans Uganda wants to allegedly harm??
    6.The day Africans and her leaders become guilty and shy about certain socio,political and economic decisions they make then we shall improve;This mentality that an African leader is untouchably convinced that his acts and ideas are important because they are his should stop.The world is about economics,Fashion,Tourism,Technology.( I hope you all saw the Trumps in London;I loved their shoes, clothes and hair style)
    7.One can not be quite sure of the economic and political direction third world nations are taking at some point the future looks bright then all over a sudden the leaders are in a destruction mood.
    8.Trust is earned: up to now Africans and Arabs who apply for Visas in the 1st world nations find it difficult.Just look at the riots in France 85% of the protesters are either Africans or Arabs they even fight with building…….i mean they throw stones at cars,houses… When UK relocated orgainzatiosn like Oxfam and BBC Africa to Kenya it looked normal but the Winnie Byanyinmas were just deported.
    9.i really love the determination and attitude of people from the far east.

  21. Alexander King

    To be honesty, I don’t fan wars. But if it is the only way to handle this situation, I think likewise many rwandans, I’d rather die of a bullet than starving.

    • Saddened Ugandan

      Starving? While Uganda was being abused, we heard that Rwanda has each and everything it needs. So, how does starving now come into the equation and who would be causing starvation?

      • Surely, if Rwanda says that they don’t need Uganda’s help (they have everything)…. then how can they starve?

        That reminds me of a phrase “never tempt to cut the arm or hand that feeds you”

        Please Rwanda you need Uganda…. So cut the nonsense. And open the boarders

  22. It’s a dangerous stuation,

    Seing the evidence provided by major Calixite Sankara and the Fdlr leaders recently captured at Goma from a meeting with M7 plotting to destabilise Rwanda,
    Adding the fact that the m7 leadership doesn’t even want to address these Security threat concerns Rwanda keeps airing out, the imaginable is very possible.

    Parading the dead body at the border to gain political points will not help the stuation but worsens it instead.

    • Saddened Ugandan

      Rwanda needs to stop this thing of faking orgasms in public… nobody has any intention of touching, coming near, or even looking at Rwanda… for what?

      • Saddened Ugandan

        What constitutes evidence? Statements from a guy who can’t even stand and is being propped up by armed soldiers while being paraded in public after at least a month in detention… detention in Rwanda? Why does it seem like Rwanda is enjoying making claims and showing its version of “evidence” for the public to consume as if it feels good? What’s really going on?

        • Saddened Ugandan,

          M7 himself admitted meeting RNC agents accidentally, after knowing the incidence had leaked, the evidence is overwhelming.

          If the issues are to be resolved, honesty and openness is needed urgently with proper actions or all of us will soon be really saddened with regrets.

          I love our both countries and now I can only pray that things take the right direction before the stuation runs out of hand.

          • Saddened Ugandan

            They approached him. He met them and told them that he’s not interested in their things. What’s incriminating about that?

        • Saddened Ugandan

          Was he supposed to follow imaginary orders from Rwanda on how to proceed after being approached by random people? Would there have been any response to that situation that would have been good enough for Rwanda?

          • The Africanist

            So they approached him and forced him to give Charlotte a Ugandan passport?

          • Businessman Charles Mbire, recently, with regard to the MTN executive who was readmitted back in the country after deportation said; ” There are two things you cannot hide, the Sun and the Truth, they always resurface” let me add, “no matter how long it takes”. In the mean time ordinary mortals will continue suffering.

        • Saddened Ugandan

          Museveni doesn’t issue passports, I’m sure. I don’t know who Charlotte is but we all know how easy it is to get a Ugandan passport and how so many Banyarwanda have both Ugandan and Rwandan passports. Who is she? One of those who got close to the center and then got spat out? Did her Rwandan passport somehow stop working? Would she gain more credibility or better access to whatever she was seeking by using a Ugandan passport? If she didn’t get a Ugandan passport, what would have happpened? Is it even true that she managed to acquire a Ugandan passport, as easy as it is to do? Clearly, I don’t know enough to comment on this Charlotte passport thing.

      • Next time you take the family retreat ask em the question.

  23. How about RNC training camps in uganda and DRC and ammunition support, CMI mobilisation for RNC, meetings and details of RNC/FDLR agents with Ugandan government have been
    Provided to the concerned in uganda but nothing has been done to address the issues.

    Insteady Innocent Rwandans are being tortured accused of spying, if we are to be fair, you can’t support neighbors enemies and at the same time expect not being spied on.

    Why is uganda this time much bothered by spying? I would be surprised if indeed uganda has no spies in Rwanda.

    It’s better to resolve the issues peacefully in the interest of both Rwandan and Ugandan people when it is still possible.

    • Saddened Ugandan

      Those things have been denied. In other words… as far as we are aware, it’s fake news and propaganda. It was even noted that the source of such misunderstandings is from elements based in South Africa.

      The spying thing… I think Kayihura and friends either didn’t care, miscalculated, or intended this mess to unfold as a result of their subversive actions. So, just as one can wonder why there’s so much noise about spying, the torture being complained about is basically the collateral damage from spying. I’m sure it will all simmer down as soon as it becomes clear who is who and the damage (lincluding things like loss of trust, disrespect etc) from Kayihura and friends’ actions has been repaired. Are they supposed to ask nicely, “Can you please tell us if you are an innocent Rwandan here for the official reasons given or if you are a not so innocent Rwandan pretending to be innocent yet you are here for other illegal things? How can we be sure that you are not deceiving?”

      These things will be resolved, I’m sure.

    • Nicholas Mukulo

      Daniel or whatever, tell your autocratic government to start war if you feel so aggrieved and see the outcome. For long we have baby seated you and went about saying that you are “success story” yet nothing to write home about! Hot hair or “wolokoso” if may. Now to the substance of the matter, stop killing your country mates who disagree with your Kampala s.s dropout and you see if you don’t have peace! Your school dropout keeps looking for them wherever they are that is why they are fighting back and seeking the support of whoever can help, as simple as that!

  24. Andrew Mwenda.. You have given it away.. even without knowing. You are of the view that the tensions are (atleast partially) caused by fate. Fate as we know it is a series of unplanned, unforeseen results of inadvertent or planned actions aimed at different results. So in planning, one cannot plan fate. It just happens. However one can plan for possible the possible outcomes of fateful events. In your last paragraph you said, war could result in regime change in one or both countries (possible outcome of fateful event). This here answers the most important question that you and all of us seem to be seeking an answer for. As you clearly state and we all agree, neither Kagame, nor M7 want war as it benefits neither. In that outcome (regime change) you tell us who whats war and who could benefit from it. Opposition elements, rebel groups, disgruntled soldiers and politicians working within each regime/party who secretly despise the two presidents. In meetings they will say lets shoot them, but really they are hoping the other nation succeeds. In this here lies both presidents folly, the failure to see that by not halting further escalation, they are facilitating their opponents. Yet on Rwanda side there has been consistent escalation in political statements and propaganda while on Uganda side there has been no action to diffuse the tension. So thank you Mwenda for providing the last key to the puzzle. As you can see from the comments, Ugandans or Rwandans who yearn for change at all costs can now each see the biggest opportunity they can take advantage of achieve that change.

    • Saddened Ugandan

      Excellent point. That would explain a lot of things.

      • They say when two elephants fight its the grass that suffers. But they forget that if one of the elephants die, they will decompose, and the soil where it fought becomes fertile and there you find a fresh green patch of grass.

        If M7 and Kagame really dont want to fight, it is upon them to root out anything that can lead to a fight. If not it is one of them who stand to lose. Whats clear is this is not a war of the people. Rwandese refugees are always welcome in Ugandan communities and Ugandans are at home in Rwanda in millions. So once the elders and generals sort themselves out or sort out their differences we shall go visit our lovely neighbors and enjoy their hospitality.

    • ejakait engoraton

      “This here answers the most important question that you and all of us seem to be seeking an answer for. As you clearly state and we all agree, neither Kagame, nor M7 want war as it benefits neither. In that outcome (regime change) you tell us who whats war and who could benefit from it”

      ONE of the characteristics, symptoms of MADNESS/INSANITY is that one does not , or have comprehension of the effects of their actions.

      IN this state, one is bound to carry out actions that are actually detrimental to themselves.

      AS you will know, one or more of the aforementioned have proactively started a WAR/S when there was no ABSOLUTE need to, and where there were more VIABLE options.

  25. Dude (we all know who) has been caught pants down, whether misled or not, thus any reasonable guilty person should just keep quiet the noble person would own up, after all the buck stops with him! The good old Kiganda saying “gunsiinze aliwa kitona” would have done wonders, but………

  26. Saddened Ugandan

    Many regrettable things have been said and done, but we remain confident that God is in control, and hopeful that our leaders will resolve this situation. They have conquered far more serious situations, so this one they can’t fail to resolve. In the meantime, we could do without the public sensationalism and scapegoating, it’s unnecessary and it really doesn’t help. Uganda and Rwanda will make it through this, and both will come out stronger and better. Amen.

  27. Why is Rwanda on the defensive in this matter? Physiology says, those who get defensive are either guilty or liars. If Rwanda claims it is a saint, why are thousands of its refugees in Uganda and the world over? Or if Uganda had handed Kagame over to Habyarimana when he was a refugee in Uganda, could he have been the president now? Rwanda’s track record of assassinations and murder of its people is well known to the whole world, it has had issues with all its neighbors, its dissidents have been assassinated in Kenya, South Africa which led to diplomatic desputes with those countries, even as far as Europe, Belgium & UK intelligence has occasionally cautioned Rwanda’s dissidents in those Countries against potential harm from their own Rwanda government, & with all this record, shamelessly as they are, they continue to blackmail Uganda. This situation has differentiated between a leader and an arrogant shouting boy holding his people hostage. If you want Uganda to talk, do you first close the boarder? Uganda looses so little in the boarder closure because it has a big market in all other neighbors, when those who closed it come back to their senses, they’ll open it.

    • denis, evidence is all over the Great Lakes region that Museveni and his brother Salim Saleh has been working tooth and nail to have regime-change in Rwanda. Regime change in Rwanda if executed successfully means Kagame will be rendered jobless, homeless and possible lifeless. If you are objective, do you expect him to sit and look on while they plot his demise and that of his loved ones? Kagame has over-respected Museveni. If it were someone else, he would have told him to his face that he knows what he is up to. Museveni is duplicitous, he is known to repay evil for good and the records are full of his former friends he really offended…..Col Mande, Kanyankole, Lutaaya and many others I don’t want to list here…… Ugandans live in Kigali and Rwanda without a care except problems common to everybody else. Stay with your beloved,kind and benevolent Museveni but the fact remains he offends his former servants and colleagues that you will see with your own eyes how fate will repay him. A his age he should be a kind generous and provident old man.

      • Hesron, truth is, any sincere person knows that President Museveni is a very lenient man, that’s why we do not have political prisoners in Uganda or even Ugandan refugees living any where in the world, but instead we have millions of refugees flocking into Uganda from other counties. Even those of Col Samson Mande’s just chose to migrate by themselves; take for instance, the Generals who have fallen out with Museveni like Gen Tinyefuza, is living peacefully in the Country, others like Lt Gen Guti, Tumukunde etc, are all back in the Army, even his fierce critics like Col Besigye, Bobi wine all live peacefully in the Country, they are only restrained when they try to cause chaos, but talk freely. If you want to prove how lenient Museveni is, try checking his Facebook page and see how people freely abuse him. To say that he wants to topple Kagame, its not true because Museveni has played a very big role in stabilizing the Great lakes region & S.Sudan. So such a narrative is just pushed by Kagame’s propaganda regime.

  28. This article makes interesting reading:
    http://www.africanewsbeat.com/?p=12482

    • Empayipayi the link is just Amateurish Rwandan propaganda just like the gutter press newtimes… rwandans could do better.

      Rwanda should use the loot from Congo’s mineral wealth to hire competent Rwandan citizens as its propagandists not these low iq nepotistically appointed propagandists.

      • there isn’t a single lie in that article unless you deny that the sun rises from the east……………. you must be just as contemptuous and arrogant as the subject-matter discussed in the article you call propaganda as if Mzee Boniface Byanyima did not say what is reported…. only fools deny immutable facts.

      • John you are very, very right! That’s why Rwanda was fined $10 billion by some international tribunal for looting and brutalizing the Congo. Some things are best left alone John, so the worms stay in the can.

    • ejakait engoraton

      Excellent article, but the one trait that the article dose not point out about M7 is his EXTREME INFERIORITY COMPLEX. This the Banyarwanda call OBUTINDI.
      He has never recovered from the fact that he was trounced and humiliated by his now Foreign affairs minister who also doubles as his in law.
      Likewise he has/had a complex towards people like AMAMA and the late KATEGAYA(rip) , and he looked for an opportunity to put them in their places, one he sadly got with ERIYA

      ON the other hand, justifiably or not KAGAME has an acute sense of SUPERIORITY complex.And M7 knows that the KAGAMEs know the darkest of his secrets and his WEAKNESSES. It is also not a secret that the RPF “boys” know the weaknesses of the likes ORIAH SALIM SALEH and how he was such a big coward during the war yet he was being hyped. In fact the late DRAGO used to narrate how he robbed a car from a heavily armed SALIM SALEH with as he stated it , only a screwdriver.

      • Saddened Ugandan

        M7? Extreme inferiority complex? Haha. A person with an extreme inferiority complex in such a position of power would never allow citizens in his country to say whatever they want about him, make fun of him, draw cartoons poking fun at him, and even abuse him anyhow.

        • Saddened Ugandan

          A leader with a superiority complex would not repeatedly reference accessing goods and services from a neighbouring country as a serious problem while addressing citizens on issues of development.

  29. Great Friendship built around wrongdoing always end up into Great animosity. Both Gen Kagame (Rwanda and Gen Museveni (Uganda) accessed power through wrongdoing, and they continue to stay in power through wrongdoing. Therefore to expect harmony between wrongdoers is absurd.

    When armed robbers for example disagree over how to share their loot, and/or enter the blame game; they easily turn the very guns used to rob on each other. That is where Gen Kagame and Gen Museveni taking Rwandes and Ugandans at each others throats.

  30. Does it really matter who is killing who, the point at this matter is that some one(2) died and some one killed them. The who did what is a rumor and the cause is just a statement that no one can really get to the bottom of. What I am trying to say is, Museveni and Kagame should do anything possible with no more hard felt feelings and avoid anymore sort of gun shooting.

  31. 23 years ago(1996-1997) rwanda’s RPA with assistance from Ugandan and Angolan armies faced and rapidly defeated the Armed Forces of Zaire, a ragtag army with ghost army units that had ghost army units and ghost soldiers besides the poor pay , poor motivation and generally not willing to die for Mobutu.

    That plus the Zairean population generally speaking being willing to welcome anyone that could end the nightmare of mobutu misgovernance.

    Later on 1998 in Kisangani the same RPA treacherously sneaked up and attacked it’s supposed ally and defeating the supposed ally who was too shocked at this turn of events.

    The international community,(USA, UK,UN etc) feeling guilty over failure to prevent 1994 genocide despite earlier repeated warnings of the impending genocide was glad to absolve itself of that catastrophic failure…encouraged the myth of a warrior Tutsi caste able to vanquish all as if to justify itself through the strange logic of we knew these Tutsi warriors were capable of bringing an end to the genocide and we never needed to intervene.

    Ever the suave propandists and opportunists , the RPA gladly took to the myths of being the total vanquishing warriors for having had assistance in defeating the scelerotic Mobutu army just like today gladly and opportunistically use the 1994 genocide of their co-ethnics as Shields and swords to silence anyone that disagrees with Kagame.

    The self deceit is worsened by the praise of cosmetic development in Kigali supported with cooked economic data.

    This has created a conceited arrogance that permeates the elite in Kigali evidence with threats and conflicts with all of rwanda’s neighbours.

  32. One is tempted to imagine one of these days the reality will come terribly crashing down hard on these supposed conquering warriors and economic magicians.

    And unfortunately for rwanda and the region the factors that led the 1994 genocide are still in play.

    The genocide it could be argued was an economic issue of a rapidly expanding agricultural and rural population in a very small country faced with low agricultural productivity exacerbated by the collapse of the international price of coffee a major forex earner for rwanda and this forced the habyarimana government to try divert the population from economic challenges by exaggerating the threat of the Tutsi rebels invading and slaughtering hutu families and stealing their land.

    Today, just like 1987, Rwanda is sitting on a time bomb with a population double that of 1987 still a rural and agricultural country and not to mention having a fragile economy very much dependent on the fickle tourism and reexporting congo’s minerals.

    And maybe Rwanda’s constant exaggerated militant responses to every issue is to divert the population from the economic hardship.

    • Temseou,

      Your hate of Rwanda wont change anything, there are many facts and facts are sturbon.

      You cant deny that Rwanda has made great strides in development and reconciliation after the 1994 Genocide,
      Come in Rwanda and see great infrastructure, good roads, good land and air transport,peace and security….
      Glory to God Rwanda is indeed a miracle considering where it is now from where it was in 1994 after the Genocide.

      You said that you are tempted to immagin that one of these days the reality will come crushing hard on rwandans…??? This could be premature.

      You are trying to distort what the Rwandan military has achieved but I can see that you are struggling because evidence is all arround.

      Consider their excellent role in peace keeping in different parts of the world today, the world is watching.

      • ejakait engoraton

        Those who try to over hype the achievements of RWANDA were not in RWANDA before the war, and most especially before the invasion.

        MOST things in RWANDA worked almost at a level of a Western nation; the standard of living of the elite in RWANDA was higher than of their counterparts in Uganda and Kenya let alone Tanzania.

        All the roads from KIGALI to all border points; Gisenyi/Goma. Katuna, Kyangugu, Rusumo, with the exception of Mirama Hills because of the war at the time, were all weather roads, and moreover built by local contractors.
        By 1995, through measures put in place by the previous regime, electricity in RWANDA was by power key.RWANDA had one of the best inland ports (MAGERWA) and its vehicles did not have to wait at the border for clearance. RWANDA did not use second hand vehicles and had showrooms for brand new vehicles for MERCEDES, TOYOTA etc.

        KIGALI had a fully functional system of traffic lights, and these were all knocked down by the invaders.

        YOU could not drive a vehicle in RWANDA without valid insurance and this was exclusively provided by a National Insurance company.
        Because of the low rate of crime, RWANDA had no POLICE as we know it UGANDA, this was actually started by a one DENNIS KAREERA , now a “prominent” businessman in KIGALI.

        THE RWANDESE were an extremely humble and disciplined people.

        RWANDA had a range of local industries producing a range of products, among these the drinks company BRALIRWA which made beer and soft drinks, a plastics company owned by MIRONKO, roofings and soap company owned by the JAFFER family, cement factory at Cyangugu, a paints company part owned by the QUALITY CUTS family, a textile factory (UTEXIRWA) which made all sorts of cotton textiles including towels and bedsheets.

        THE present regime, despite the war, which did not destroy much by way of infrastructure and factories , just took over from a good base.

        • Ejakait you need reduce on that stuff you are drinking, your thoughts and analyses are pure Shenzi-ish, God have mercy! I

  33. 1987 was the year when the impacts of the collapsing price of Coffee on the internation market started wrecking havoc for rwanda’ and habyarimana’s government causing imported inflation, delayed salaries for public servants etc.

    • Temseou,
      That was then but this is now.

      The Rwanda of Habyarimana’s time is very different from the Rwanda of today.

      Check on the global business report how much money Rwanda makes annually from mining, tourism ……

      Gdp growth of 7 annually.

      Please try updating yourself to be relevant.

      • Daniel do not over-simplify and reduce Rwanda’s problem to GDP statistics. Let me ask you a few hypothetical questions:

        1. After the debacle of the 1994 genocide, how many Hutu’s are still languishing as refugees in the DR Congo wilderness?

        2. 25 years later today, how many thousands were born and are now stateless and bitter adults, who want to go back home in Rwanda?

        3. That Rwanda is over-populated (no land); of the diaspora returnees (landless), including Gen Kagame, on whose grabbed land did they settle?

        • Mr. Zero (O), don’t go out of your way fabricate things, that said the returns you talk about, did they live in air before they were forced out of Rwanda? Please if you don’t have anything to say, don’t say it! Rwanda (RPF) did a very good job of not displacing the people they found settled on the land, it is on record, ask the UN.

  34. 1. They are arround 300 tbousands but the doors are open wide for them to come back to their country.

    The issue is that some of them participated in the genocide and fear facing justice hence preffer to stay where they are.

    Others also have been held as hostage by the FDLR rebel force according to the testimonies given by some who have escaped from the rebel force.

    2. The trueth is that they have full right as any other Rwandan citizen to their country and if they chose to go back to their home Land they would receive a warm welcome.

    The problem is that they have been taught a bad ideology where some who are coming back say that they were told by their parents and superiors that they can’t co habit with Tutsis.

    3. About lack of land and Land grabing, yes Rwanda has 26338 square km with arround 12.5 M people.
    How can you say that people of Rwanda are landless?

    it makes me feel like you hear about Rwanda from far and you don’t have any clue on its leadership and governance.
    HE PK can’t do such a thing of grabing anyone’s Land,its against his character, honestly, he is not that corrupt as some african leaders arround him in in the neighbouring countries.

    • Truth is, what’s keeping thousands of Rwandans as refugees is the autocratic, brutal & murderous regime of President Kagame. He never tolerates criticism nor reconciles, citizens are in fear of freely expressing themselves.

    • @Daniel

      ” 3. About lack of land and Land grabing, yes Rwanda has 26338 square km with arround 12.5 M people.
      How can you say that people of Rwanda are landless? ”

      Of that 26,338sqkm only 14,000sqkm (3,459,473acres) is suitable for farming/agriculture that is 0.28 acre per Rwandan citizen.

      Also Globally ,it is estimated that one average healthy person would need about 5acres (under optimum agricultural output) of agricultural land to produce adequate food to feed that one person per annum.

      Meaning Rwanda would need to import food or drastically raise the agricultural productivity hence the claims of the “landless” Rwandans

  35. Interesting piece here!

    “The real issue between the governments of Rwanda and Uganda is simply that of territorial integrity and national sovereignty, and therefore the sense, by and from both sides, that each is threatening or violating each other’s territorial integrity and national sovereignty.”

    theconsciousafrikan.com/2019/03/21/the-ongoing-political-crisis-between-rwanda-and-uganda-has-greatly-exposed-diplomacy-as-an-ineffectual-political-tool/

  36. “Diplomacy cannot and will not solve the political issues between Rwanda and Uganda because diplomacy has long been seriously compromised, impaired and as such rendered ineffective by the accusations from both sides of each other’s actions against the other.

    Lastly, both countries should be willing, as part of genuine efforts to settling their issues – the ongoing political impasse and other underlying issues and in the interest of peace to the region – to reappraise their intelligence sources and information. Because, therein, possibly lies the major cause of the political misunderstandings or at least, it unavoidably contributes to the major problems between these two, to reiterate the not so funny joke, ‘sister’ countries; largely because most of such information is likely to be downright inaccurate, falsified or simply poorly sourced and/or collated and therefore not credible enough to be the basis of any political decision and/or action.”

    theconsciousafrikan.com/2019/04/02/integrity-and-humility-lack-thereof-in-the-stand-off-between-rwanda-and-uganda/

  37. “Matters of politics are hardly, if ever at all, about and based and/or defined by blood relations, more so, between countries. International politics and relations is purely about interests, nothing more, nothing less.”

    https://theconsciousafrikan.com/2019/03/18/of-rwanda-and-uganda-relations-and-the-claim-of-being-sister-countries/

    • nDaKaZa you seem to be disciple of whoever it is that penned that article/principle you so faithfully allude to in the said website. If however, political action is solely determined by interest, which interest i greater than an incumbent staying on the ‘chair’? Because if an armed conflict erupts, without doubt (though I don’t know your age) Museveni would start a countdown from presidency to nothingness. That is the trouble with people who personalise nations such that their ego,wisdom(or lack of it),vanities and other properties intermingle with those of the state.The onus is on patriotic Ugandans to determine whether one selfish person should plunge a whole country in trouble for vanity’s sake and they act accordingly.

      • Dear hesron,
        It’s obvious you didn’t read the article in the link provided.

        I suggest you read the article and others on the same website about the conflict.
        Keep well,

        Thanks.

  38. What this conflict has exposed is an issue that has to-date not been discussed or considered – that the two peoples and governments have different values!. That difference is the root cause of this conflict. We have to start by recognising that we have different values, we then try to identify what shared interests we have and then set the level of expectations and co-operation we can attain. We then go for that. Uganda needs to have peace with Rwanda but for that to happen we have to establish a safe distance between us and then transact within agreed boundaries. This “we are one” talk has to end because we are not one.

  39. Saddened Ugandan

    Yesterday I read an interesting insightful piece:

    https://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/How-clashes-of-class-egos-drag-Uganda-Rwanda-to-conflict/688334-5148804-qcwf1iz/index.html

    Some points in the article raise more questions than answers, which tends to happen with articles in which there is food for thought.

    Considering the apparent costs and unsustainability of chasing dissidents away and quarelling with their host countries, Rwanda would do well to at least try making friends and explore more inclusive approaches… and not bite off the heads of their true friends for suggesting such. Otherwise, each and every country which hosts Rwandan refugees who used to be prominent citizens of Rwanda will have to endure endless accusations and intense rhetoric and the rest of the drama we are witnessing. When Rwandan refugees have no reason to flee Rwanda, and Rwanda has no need to “follow up” on such refugees, and other countries are not being pressured into obeying Rwanda just because “you have allowed those I dislike to live in your country”… that’s when things of EAC and AU will start to make proper sense. How else will these woes end?

    Before even talking about war, we would rather invite the likes of Thabo Mbeki and Cyril Ramaphosa as mediators who can broker the terms for a clean divorce. We do like North Korea and South Korea, and we can as well invite a team from the AU and EAC as witnesses who can be told why the rest of the continent should listen to all the bright ideas of Rwanda and Uganda, that “do as I say, not as I do”. And then we keep moving forward.

    • Saddened Ugandan

      That, “Ndugu, first come and assist us. We have tried everything, everything has failed. Our people have said they are tired of wars, so war is not an option, not even as a last resort. Broker for us and we agree on terms for a more dignified divorce so that we stop disappointing our people and betraying their hope in the continent and forsaking their trust in us, and we stop embarrassing ourselves, each other, and the continent.”

      • Saddened Ugandan

        Then we can as well send invitations to waChina and other interested parties that, “You come and see how weak we are as Africans. Pan Africanism was a big lie. We are ready for recolonization any time.”

    • Suddened Ugandan, your last paragraph is what one would call pragmatic and well meaning , both countries/leaders should explore such if they have not already done so, the question is have they, or has any of the individuals tried such? Them two are the only ones who can tell us what they have done to that effect. There are multitudes of people who do not wish Museveni and or Kagame well, their differences play in such hands! Both presidents have been successful in their own ways, something I will not get into in the scope of this discussion. If both men cannot agree on who aggrieved who, then they should be men enough to submit to mutually agreeable third party to arbitrate, whoever refuses such is the guilty the party that should be condemned to eternity.

    • Saddened Ugandan

      I didn’t mention more names because there are very many strong Pan Africans who are likely more than willing and able to mediate… Comrade Chisano and Kenneth Kaunda. We are not having leadership challenges in Africa. How about we consult and spare our people the drama?

    • Most of the contents of the article is a misinformation or diversion to serve as a political propaganda againist the Rwandan leadership.

      I remember major general JJ Odongo was tasked by M7 to investigate, assess and provide a report detailing the root cause of an armed conflict between Rwanda and Uganda.

      The report clearly says how Ugandan army led by late James Kaziini attacked Rwandan deffences in DRC with bombings untill Rdf had no option but to deffend itself.

      Rwanda had captured most of the cities in the eastern DRC after bloody fight with the then drc government forces, then Kaziini demanded that the cities be handed over to the updf soldiers or Rdf would loose all the drc area it had captured.

      This was wrong, because Uganda and Rwanda were working as allies and had agreed to take different directions.

      It seems that the main issue was and is that some Ugandan leaders seem to feel that they are more senior/superior to Rwandan leaders and Rpf/ Rwanda Owes them for the support they recieved from Uganda, during the liberation struggle.

      But Ugandan leadership needs to Remember that these Rwandans fought for Nrm, it should be a mutual respect relationship.

      Rwanda is an indipendent country and deserves a right to decide on its governance.

      Any advice is wellcome, but Rwanda has the final say on its governance and this shouldnt offend any one.

      Rwanda has a right and capacity to defend its interests and security and failure to see this can always result in unnecessary trouble.

  40. Saddened Ugandan

    Mazima, those things of chasing away those you don’t like and you follow them around the continent… things of Shaka Zulu’s mfecane… please, this is twenty nayintini… about to be 2020. Such things are outdated and unsustainable. It’s hard, and very difficult, maybe even imperceivable… but it is necessary and beyond likes and tastes of the individual. Bambi, Kagame… our hero who up till now when we hear your name it makes some of us want to stand up and sing songs of liberation… let go… kiriza… for our sake. We don’t know and therefore don’t necessarily like those with whom you have had disagreements… but where things have reached… please forgive us and just put Africa first.

    • Saddened Ugandan,

      I dont think its about liking people or not liking them.

      Rwanda has a right to protect its citizens againist terrorism of any form.

      If a Rwandan or any other person/country acts againist the rwandan state security, Rwanda will always act to stop it.

  41. ejakait engoraton

    sadly, but not unexpectedly, you argue{mind you not reasoning) like the i**t you are.

    Whatever you mean by “stuff” only you would have an idea , because I am a totally sober character.

    I stand 100% by all the facts I have stated, and instead of you coming up with your “alternative”facts, even if in a TRUMP fashion, you spew all kinds of rubbish.

    I expect you to come up and say, No Ejakait, Rwanda did not have tarmac roads to all its border towns, and NO they were not done by MUBIRIGI SARL, and COLAS SARL, or NO RWANDA did not have a single traffic light, or that MAGERWA (Magazines General de Rwanda) is your imagination.

    IF you came up with such facts, then I would even consider having a debate with you, as I have done with more sensible people on this forum.

    But just because you have access to a computer and can tap a few keys and with the help of spell check, write a few words, you think you are making a contribution. Go drink KIVUGUTO.

    • Ejakait, it is Ajon talking, let the great drink be enjoyed more, because addiction is hard to fight. If you are sober, the wires are off! When you make a point, it seem accidental, bless you.

  42. Saddened Ugandan

    May any connection or association… whether real, fake, or imagined… between Uganda and FDLR, especially the demonic forces behind the deplorable actions of FDLR against civilians… may any such connection or association be cancelled and rejected, in the mighty name of Jesus. Amen.

    May any related or other demonic forces causing unending confusion and tension between Uganda and Rwanda be defeated, in the mighty name of Jesus. Amen.

    Ephesians 6:12

    2 Corinthians 10:4

    • Amen.
      So be it in the name of Jesus.

      Let’s all of us that love our both countries keep praying that there will be trust, unity and love between our leaderships/ Countries again.

      We need a way forward that adds value to the well being of people, not war.

  43. It seems you are not an ordinary citizen in Rwanda or you are a regime sympathizer and that is why you can lie without remorse. The ghost of the victims of this senseless quarrel you seems to be supporting will haunt you and you will surely at one time pay for your dishonesty and murderous heart.

  44. Museveni knows well what happened in Kisangani,plz don’t provocate Rwanda again!

    • 20 years is a long time and so much has changed.

      Please don’t gamble with war just because you won a skirmish 20years ago against a UPDF that was restrained from giving you a bloody nose.

      Not to mention it’s unlikely Rwanda will handle a frontal assault against Uganda with Burundi attacking rwanda’s rear and an attack from the unhappy people in South/north kivu who don’t want to be in rwanda’s armpits, those ones rwanda’s 5th colummnists are attempting ethnic cleansing on the (banyamulenge,banande,etc)

  45. Military comparison:

    Uganda has edge when it comes to airfirepower. In 2012, Uganda acquired half a dozen of Russian mulfi-fighter aircrafts Sukhoi (Su-30K) with a range of 1600 Miles. This fleet came as a supplement of the current existing fire of five MiG-23. When asked why a country like Uganda no existential threats spent over half billion USD, Museveni nodded his head and said it just “this is just the beginning of our capacity building”.

    Looking at the South West of the border (in Rwanda), such “capacity building” in recent years has mainly focused on Infantry and recruitment of a large land forces.

    Although many of African wars and conflicts have been won by whoever has most trained/large ground forces, the dynamics of today’s wars with reference to Libya and Mali show us that strategic air strikes can instantly overwhelm and annihilation enemy.

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