Uganda’s shadow state

Museveni’s non-expendables

In Uganda, the researchers say, economic and political power is mediated through a network of individuals, most of whom are closely linked to President Yoweri Museveni and his family. These linkages include blood, marriage, kinship and the shared experience of those who served in the liberation struggle, known as the Bush War.

“The image of a monarchy, with a strong military influence, has been used to describe the near absolute control over the state and vital sectors of the economy held by Museveni and his extended family,” they say, “This also applies to ambitions for dynastic renewal through Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba – even though the incumbent monarch himself seems the least enthusiastic proponent of such as he appears rather indifferent to who rules after his intended life presidency.”

Ultimately,  the researchers say, all  shadow  state  actors  are  expendable  and  Museveni frequently cuts shadow state actors loose, depriving them of access to economic, social and  political  resources.

But a small  number  of  figures,  including  Gen. Salim Saleh,  wield  enough  power  to  critically  destabilise  the  system  or  put  up  resistance  if  the president chose to sanction them.

Sam Kutesa is mentioned as “one of the most consistent and powerful shadow state actors.”  It is mentioned that his late wife, Jennifer, was a relative of Janet Museveni and his daughter, Charlotte, is married to First son Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

Janet, they say, has cultivated her web of relations in the Museveni system that spans diplomacy, military, commerce, parastatals and State House.  Henry Tumukunde and Security Minister Jim Muhwezi are married to cousins of Janet. Bob Kabonero, a powerful  businessperson  and  broker  who  has  interests  in  oil  and  gas,  telecommunications  and casinos,  and  Richard  Kabonero,  one  of  Museveni’s  most  high-profile  diplomats, are Janet’s cousins. Minister of State for animal industry, Bright Rwamirama, is also a cousin of Janet, and Janet’s relative Hannington Karuhanga sits on several boards, including Airtel and the Uganda Coffee Development Authority. He formerly chaired Stanbic Bank. Others include the president’s former legal aide, Justus Karuhanga and State House undersecretary for finance and administration, Hope Nyakairu. The president’s long-time political adviser and Premier Dairies owner, Moses Byaruhanga, is married to Janet’s cousin, Peace.

The researchers say Museveni’s  regime  rests  on  two  main  pillars:  Military  officers  and  an  extended  quasi-royal  family.

Business associates help to fund the campaign of the ruling party, while the media is used to prevent the opposition from getting their message out, and members of the security forces—often operating out of uniform—intimidate and harass opposition supporters.

But, the researchers say, the system is becoming increasingly fluid, perhaps unstable, as generational change (through death or retirement) impacts the regime.

It must be pointed out that some of the researchers’ findings may appear off the mark if not inaccurate to informed readers. But the researchers say in doing their work, many people were reluctant to talk on the record. Many were reportedly concerned that their safety  and  that  of  participants  would  have  been  put  at  risk  if  their  investigations  were perceived to be a threat  to shadow state actors.

But they say President Museveni presides over a set of personal networks that are embedded in family ties and  personal  relationships—the  royal  family—and  secured  through  his  control  over  the  security  forces, which play a variety of roles, including occupying what are officially civilian positions.

Role of security forces

According to them, as  in  many  shadow  states,  the  Ugandan  security  forces  have  played  an  important  role  in  the  competition for political power by symbolically standing behind the president and making it clear that despite  the  reintroduction  of  multiparty  politics  in  2005,  Ugandan  citizens  do  not  have  a  genuine choice over the identity of the government.

According to the researchers, the security forces occupy a more prominent role in the shadow states of countries that have experienced either military rule or civil conflict, often leading to greater human rights abuses. At the same  time,  multinational  companies  and  economic  brokers  are  more  likely  to  occupy  prominent  positions  in  countries  with  valuable  natural  resources,  such  as  the  DRC.

The researchers say the significance of the shadow state in Uganda is, however, constrained because President Museveni has a range of official institutions at his disposal, and therefore is less reliant on informal networks than other presidents studied.

This, according to the researchers, is because the high levels of repression under President Museveni’s  National  Resistance  Movement  (NRM) have  gone  hand  in  hand  with  the  creation  of  a  fairly  effective set of formal political institutions that should not be considered weak simply because they are used to sustain authoritarian rather than democratic governance.

The  reverse  is  true  in  the  DRC,  where  formal  state  institutions  are  weak  and  the  government struggles to assert its authority over the whole territory. The security forces occupy a role that  is  much  broader  than  their  formal  activity  and  are  intimately  involved  in  a  range  of  predatory  economic behaviours; including smuggling and taxation.

In Zambia, the police and army are often used to intimidate the opponents of the government, but they never  play  a  major  role  in  shaping  the  composition  of  the  government or public policy. Instead, the Zambian shadow state relies more heavily on a network of civilian business people, judges and politicians.

The researchers say that, in countries where authoritarian political institutions are strong, as in Uganda and Zimbabwe, the shadow state may only play a supplementary role in undermining democratic processes.

But even when the shadow state is less extensive, as in Uganda, it may still reduce the prospects for political change in conjunction with a dominant ruling party. In turn, political control enables the members of the shadow state to entrench their position.

Museveni, they say, keeps himself in power by blurring of the line between security forces and militias around elections. These are deployed to harass opposition supporters, and demobilise opposition rallies and post-election protests.