Why Besigye may have a chance at the presidency and how the President risks impeachment by parliament

Two things that seemed almost impossible and improbable at the end of March this year are increasingly becoming possible and probable as the year closes. One was that Forum for Democratic Change boss Kizza Besigye would never be President of Uganda (which was my position); the other was that the NRM-dominated Parliament would never impeach President Yoweri Museveni (which was the position of my critics) because he had effective control over it. Today, both scenarios are possible and probable. Both these changes show how indeterminate the future is.

At the end of March this year, Museveni was a very confident man. He had resoundingly defeated Besigye in what was perhaps the freest, fairest and least violence-ridden presidential election ever. Yes, he raided the Treasury and spent tonnes of public money on it. However, in the wider scheme of things, better a president who buys an election than one who kills for it. Wasn’t it King Philip 11 of Macedonia (father of Alexander the Great) who saw bribery and lies as humane substitutes to slaughter?

Similarly, at the end of March, Besigye looked like a spent force; his claims that he had been cheated of victory sounded like sour grapes. He had been beaten in his northern stronghold, failed to gain ground in Buganda, lost significant ground in Teso and the entire East and made no inroads in western Uganda. He had called upon his supporters to demonstrate against electoral fraud and no one turned up.

On the other hand, Museveni had not just won by 68% (up from 58% in 2006), his NRM party also swept the Parliamentary seats. Out of 375 elected seats, NRM had won 264. Of the 43 MPs elected as independents, 39 were allied to the party. If one added UPDF representatives to NRM, the ruling party’s parliamentary majority looked overwhelming and Museveni looked as secure as ever in his position. To many observers, this was going to be Museveni’s best five year term ever.

This was the context of Uganda at the beginning of April 2011 – a demoralised and apathetic opposition; a confident and seemingly impregnable Museveni and his party. But by the end of the month, the tables had turned. Demonstrations had rocked the entire country from Kampala to Mbale, Gulu, Masaka and the president’s home district of Mbarara. Besigye had re-emerged from virtual obscurity to become the main centre of attention leading the ‘Walk to Work’ campaign. What had happened in less than two months to change everything?

The genesis of Museveni’s dilemma was the way he approached the election campaign. Suspecting that Besigye had been given a lot of money by the late Libyan President Muammar Gadaffi, Museveni raided the national Treasury for Shs 600 billion and went on a spending spree. It was the most expensive election in Uganda’s history. After the election, I was the leading proponent of the view that the president had literary bought the election.

By December 2010, Afrobarometer polls were showing Museveni with a commanding lead of 67% and throughout the election campaign, all polls reflected this constant figure. On Election Day, he got 68% – meaning that Museveni’s money had little effect on his electoral arithmetic.

However, the spending spree had powerful implications on the economy whose long-term consequences he could have underestimated and some he could not have foreseen. For example, assuming that his strategic objective was to retain power, he may have realised that in the short term this required some fiscal irresponsibility i.e. excessive spending that could cause inflation. However, once he had achieved his strategic objective, he would re-establish prudent fiscal and monetary policy, bring inflation under control and have a comfortable five years.

However, the President seems to have been hit by what Nassim Nicolas Taleb calls a Black Swan – the impact of a large and unexpected event. Immediately after the election, Uganda suffered two major external shocks – the increasing price of crude oil in international markets and the appreciation of the dollar – both of which brought with them imported inflation. Then the effects of the drought that had started in December 2010 were beginning to bite in form of high food prices – the most critical driver of inflation.

Even before Museveni could re-establish control over the economy, these developments grievously hurt our already fragile fiscal and monetary positions. Indeed, they made it difficult for Museveni to regain control over inflation in the short term. To make matters worse (as if the gods were colluding to spoil the president’s renewed mandate), the effects of these shocks were most felt by urban consumers - the constituency that is most hostile to the government but equally the most strategically positioned to make demands on the State by organising civil disobedience.

It is in this context that ‘Walk to Work’ protests began – producing the law of unintended consequences. For example, the protests initially reduced the inflow of food into Kampala City, thus making inflation worse. As the protests spread from Kampala to other towns, they scared away investors and tourists, thereby reducing the inflows of foreign exchange and thereby worsening the position of the Shilling. This in turn forced portfolio investors to begin selling off their Ugandan treasury bills and bonds, further undermining the health of the local currency.

In the midst of all these developments – a seemingly failing economy and a political process out of touch with people’s concerns – the constituencies in favour of protests grew. The teachers went on strike over poor pay. The taxi drivers followed suit over fuel prices. Then traders closed their shops protesting the increasing price of the dollar. Lawyers downed their gowns in protest against government handling of the demonstrations. Beleaguered and disoriented, the government’s response to these challenges became shabbier. For example, it began charging protesters with treason, a very ridiculous thing at that.

It is in these circumstances that Besigye regained his political relevance. Sensing a weakness, Parliament also took advantage of the situation to openly challenge the Executive using alleged corruption in oil deals as an entry point. So, if Museveni does not re-assert his authority now, Parliament may run out of control.  If this happens, it may even gain the confidence to try to impeach him. And if Besigye can rekindle the Walk to Work fire, it may give him a chance at the presidency.

This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Comments (37)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

I entirely agree
written by kayinda Eddie , December 20, 2011

Mwnda this a good piece of analysis. I agree with you in totality

• 
• +1
• 
• 

...
written by Op, December 20, 2011

600 billion is a very large price to pay for one man's ego, especially considering it wasn't his to spend as he chose.

• 
• +5
• 
• 

Too Little Too Late
written by Rajab Kakyama, December 20, 2011

I want to believe that by the time Mwenda penned down this article he had not yet heard of the developments from Najjanakumbi. This, however, does not stop Besigye from contesting as Party presidential candidate basing on thePart constitution. However, given the time and spirit in which this comes, shows that Besigye has thrown in the towel vying for the Presidency. Mwenda, much as I want to agree with you on this one but the economic situation in the past hasn't ben any different and yet Museveni has never been so shaky as he is today. What explains this is that, te election was massively bought. And that Museveni can not therefore rely on an NRM bought Parliament.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Communications Specialist
written by Atuhura Tadeo, December 20, 2011

Andrew, i strongly aggree with your analysis and i would like to add that the few institutions that gave Museveni confort are now baying for his blood and eventual collapse. One aspect that needs to highlighted is, Museveni needs to ensure that the public (his peasants) do not let go of him, otherwise we shall see Libya situation.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Again, you disappoint Andrew
written by Immaculate Nambi, December 20, 2011

You say, "the protests initially reduced the inflow of food into Kampala city, thus making inflation worse...they scared away investors and tourists, thereby reducing the inflows of foreign exchange...". This is absolute falsehood! Inflation was highest in the months of Oct - Nov, months after the end of the W2W. The shilling was lowest against the dollar in the same period. Somehow, you again tactfully find a way to shift the blame away from M7. You forgot to mention that it wasn't the W2W protest but the reaction from the government that scared the investors and tourists away ( and there is no evidence to this).

• 
• +14
• 
• 

...
written by Immaculate Nambi, December 20, 2011

You say that "if M7 does not assert his authority, Parliament may run out of control". What exactly do you mean by this? Is this what you make of Parliament's current fight against corruption - running out of control? Are you suggesting that M7 should shut Parliament up? Is this the gospel you are preaching now?????

• 
• +11
• 
• 

Which way Mwenda?
written by Arapu Kawuse, December 20, 2011

I have read this article, and I see nothing but an author asking for a troubled country! You want M7 to turn into a dictator? You want Besigye to continue with a campaign that hurt thousands... Where are you gaining from in all this saga you seem to be advocating for? Andrew Mwenda, which way do u want your country to go? Chaotic or peaceful? I think you wrote high sounding garb!

• 
• +3
• 
• 

...
written by Lt Col Adam Kifaliso, December 20, 2011

Andrew , you are not serious , or you are bitter with yourself for having messed up , you didn't mention the jets , bloated parliament cabinet and useless communist RDCs ,they all drain the public funds , lack of investment in infrastructure as lead to collapse of rail and road network , m7 is failure and has failed , the question is , was this planned by NRM to destroy Uganda ?

• 
• +7
• 
• 

...
written by Paul Kato, December 20, 2011

Andrew, Your analysis is not further from the truth!

• 
• -2
• 
• 

Useless governments
written by Ocheto, December 20, 2011

Governments have lost their mission, which is to provide an environment and a level playing that accords opportunities for all citizens (especially the less fortunate) a fair shake at succeeding at whatever they are interested in and are good at or capable of. But instead governments are colluding with the rich and wealthy (the most fortunate) exclusively to serve the interests of latter. The former have been left to fend for them, whereas the latter have access to the national resources. Both the political and economic systems no longer serve the interests of all. Governments rake debts to feed the appetites of those with political and economic advantages.

• 
• +3
• 
• 

Useless governments
written by Ocheto, December 20, 2011

The so-called profits, which are really welfare for the rich are privatized and the losses are socialized for all to share. Even the so-called free-market, laissez fair, capitalist markets are any but free. And they wonder why the pseudo market economic systems are collapsing or tanking. Banks which used to provide a monetary utility service have become giant casino houses to speculate or gamble on other peoples’ (taxpayers) money. It would be laughable it wasn’t tragic. The day the Uganda government gives a kid born in any small village in Uganda a chance/environment/opportunity at success is the day they will be judged to have done a decent job. For now it is all garbage.

• 
• +4
• 
• 

ER
written by Cuzo, December 20, 2011

This column is in the E.R! I suggest Mwenda takes a holiday, get some rest and reflect on his position as Uganda's only brain (He said the other Ugandans don't get it !). It is sheer mockery and a spit in the faces of your readers to pretend to have something to write and come up with such cheap pieces that are not only falsfied in content but also shallow and deceptive in analysis... you know your man would shoot up everything if w2w became a real threat, you know impeachment is almost unafrican and least of all Ugandan so what are you saying...please stop the flashy headlines and give yourself a break! its, o.k you don't have to write every week.

• 
• +2
• 
• 

The Black Swan is the Oil
written by Ocheto, December 20, 2011

When history will be written about the end of the Museveni era, oil will be one if not the precipitative factor. It finally exposed the regime to bigger foreign interests and with it bigger and wide and far reaching crimes of bribery. The radio masts are just a diversionary side show. The real show in town that is creating the tectonic political shifts is happening in the oil sector. When oil was discovered a few years ago Museveni was reported to have taken a sip of it and in the process to have exclaimed of how sweet it was. Soon or later he rue the day "he discovered" oil in Uganda.

• 
• +1
• 
• 

AM ideas in the artice are too simplistic
written by Raymond, December 21, 2011

AM article is wanting in many ways. He assumes that Uganda is a ‘functioning state’ and the MPs he mentions are principled and represent the will of the people, which is not true. Many, if not all, are self centred recognition seekers with the incentive of accessing higher profile offices and also eat- which is why they shut up and join the clique when e.g. appointed ministers. What is Banyenzaki et al. doing now? Of course we have the likes of Besigye but such guys are extremely rare species in the Uganda of today.

• 
• +10
• 
• 

cotn
written by Raymond, December 21, 2011

AM, Uganda is a fragile state and the army plays a great role politics. And because of poverty, Ugandans easily surrender in the face of bribery, intimidation and/or armed forces. Uganda’s income per capita is a joke (abt 4 times lower) compared to Tunisia, Egypt and Libya where ‘successful’ riots took place. Me thinks, change in Uganda’s President ship will come when there is commotion in the army-quite unlikely b’se of tribalistic nature, when something occurs to museveni e.g. assassination, death etc.

• 
• +6
• 
• 

Ctn
written by Raymond, December 21, 2011

Or when time comes to anoint his son b’se he is not smart enough to lead or hold Uganda together. And of course when external foreign forces give up on Museveni and support Ugandans. Obviously the forces change in Uganda are there and Museveni can be done with within a matter of weeks. The problem has been that a bit of a small external assistance to has been largely missing. So AM other than your article ‘encouraging’ some Ugandans in the struggle, it is too simplistic, shallow and falls short of real the situation on the ground.

• 
• +9
• 
• 

...
written by Sultan, December 21, 2011

"Freest, fairest and least violence-ridden presidential election ever" Hmmmm! In the same paragraph-despite tonnes of public money being looted from the treasury.. You see the only other option was to kill in order to win the elections. And it stops there; no other option! We should at least thank them for picking on the more civil option that rewarded us all as we can see. For one I thought this line is rather shameful for anyone to quote. Worse still it has been repeated hundreds of times by the columnist. Now I am only talking of a mere instinct of shame, my God! Where are we? Need one complement such an author with reasoned responses? Not me this time. Later!

• 
• +7
• 
• 

Reputation
written by Wakinyankali Bob, December 21, 2011

I think, Andrew wrote this article, to regain his tainted reputation. On so many occassions his been accussed of being in bed with NRM, this time the fingers are out of the blanket.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Mr
written by Sam M. Masaba, December 21, 2011

Bravo, Mwenda You wrote a very mature article on M7's weakness. However, M7's Longevity in Power is the problem not the solution. Yes ! he bought his way into power this time round but my worry is that he will go up in smoke with all the inroads he has made. we are still taking baby steps. What I disagree with the shallow thinking that it's to M7 to bring Uganda at full employment level.

• 
• -1
• 
• 

Missing link
written by ATM Iceland, December 21, 2011

AM, sometime back you mentioned that if the famous contempt of parliament motion was put to vote, Mbabazi would have carried the day. Implication you know the house is full of mainly voters and not debators, who have gone ahead to become hecklers. The only independent minds like Nse, Chama, Nuwa, Sseki, etc plus opposition can not rise the nos required for impeachment. You are just writing this article to give Ugandans hope that it is soon allover. You forget to mention how the police handled riots, why M7 has remained at the centre of all corruption scandles, why Mbabazi's team gags any opponent (including the Rt Hon. Speaker). Analyse all issues that seem to be shaping the current political landscape

• 
• +4
• 
• 

Mr
written by Gerald M, December 22, 2011

Ive been in Uganda for 6 months after 10yrs away. I'm yet to meet anyone that frankly admits to supporting or even voting for NRM. This election was stolen, if you cant see it you are either deluded or simply covering up for someone, that's a fact. Besigye is a HERO, that's another fact.

• 
• +2
• 
• 

...
written by Lt Col Adam Kifaliso, December 22, 2011

Merry Xmas Andrew and all the best , If you want your opinions to be added to those that shape Uganda and beyond , join the parliament and debate,Andrew you don't have to pass through the back doors , no one should buy your conscience and intellect for political gain , m7 has served his term and no gun or political trick will save m7 from his mental dementia , Andrew you have not yet served yours , let the old m7 die and pave way for change , Enjoy your Xmas

• 
• +1
• 
• 

Is investigating corruption out of control behavior !!?
written by Maceni, December 22, 2011

Parliament is investigating and flushing out corruption , Mounting defense against unjust laws (that charge protestors for treason and deny them bail), asserting its independence as an arm of government - What is so out of control about this?!! Seems to me they are actually doing their Job. What exactly would the President asserting his authority over parliament entail ? Blocking corruption investigations!? Passing oppressive laws?

• 
• +4
• 
• 

Why is Museveni quiet or dodgy ? Guilt
written by Ocheto, December 22, 2011

You have all these reports (submitted by ministers and government officials) of how all the dubious payments either bear his signature or his approval and yet Museveni never says anything about it. But like his infamous cabinet ministers he's evasive, lecturing on Ugandans on either irrelevant or impertinent issues, never tackling the allegations head on or leveling with the Ugandan people. This attitude and behavior of dodginess, prevarications and evasiveness points only to one thing: guilt. All major impropriety cases point to one place: state house. It doesn't take a law degree to understand that the occupant of the state house, Museveni, is culpable. Let him answer to the people who deserve answers not silly lectures.

• 
• +4
• 
• 

Inquisitorial Parliamentary Role of holding the Executive (Govt) to account to the people.
written by Banda, December 23, 2011

Andrew, thank you for your views. You stated, “Parliament also took advantage of the situation to openly challenge the Executive using alleged corruption in oil deals as an entry point.” The parliamentary inquiries so far made, into the oil sector corruption, have already shown plausible evidence of corrupt actions in the secret disposal of national assets (oil wells) - breach of anti-corruption laws, such as, the Public Procurement and Disposal of Public Assets Act 2003. The oil contracts (PSAs) which were shrouded from Ugandans (stakeholders), shows lack of govt. transparency and accountability – that's real evidence of oil corruption.

• 
• +2
• 
• 

The Power, Independence and Supremacy of Parliament.
written by Banda, December 23, 2011

Those suspected of corrupt behavior in the oil sector, must wait for the formal outcome of the parliamentary investigations, and if they are not satisfied with the set up adhoc committee’s findings, they can legally challenge them in a court. Any political maneuvers to use the Judiciary as this stage, to reverse or quash a parliamentary unanimous decision/resolutions, made by majority of MPs, in accordance with the quorum of parliament, set out in Article 88 of the constitution, may be considered as gross contempt to Ugandans, represented by Parliament. It also hugely undermines parliamentary democracy. (See Article 1 of the Constitution 1995).

• 
• +1
• 
• 

Publish the UK Police Investigation reports (s) into the oil bribery allegations to publicly clear the accused ministers.
written by Banda, December 23, 2011

Andrew, Tullow Oil, a British foreign oil extractive company, allegedly gave financial kickbacks/bribes to foreign Ugandan govt. officials. Part of the evidence to prove one of the oil corruption allegations (i.e. bribery,) namely the foreign bank statements, which Hon. Karuhanga publicly tabled before the House, was disputed as forged documents. To-date, all those making counter-claims of forgery, have failed to publish an endorsed copy of investigatory report from the British Met Police or Serious Fraud Unit (SFO), to tangibly prove to Ugandans that the documents were indeed fake, and that Tullow did not act in breach the UK Bribery Act 2010.

• 
• +1
• 
• 

Merry X-Mas
written by Robert, December 24, 2011

Your tried to cleanse your bad image in this article. But things are not good in Kampala! Just been here for 5 days,and noticed fuel queues at awkward hours, rampant load shedding, sky rocketing inflation, mal-fucntioning street and traffic lights etc? How about the poor infrastructure, poor roads, lack of drugs in hospitals! And by the way why would you be worried of M7 being impeached? The ground is ripe for him to be impeached!

• 
• +1
• 
• 

...
written by Joe.K, December 24, 2011

Hello Readers,
I take it everyone has noticed that Mwenda's article contents are just mediocre college essays, academically sound but lack substance of reality .

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Mwenda's democratic credentials being deflated?
written by Kayumba David, December 25, 2011

I thought is a good thing to have a conscience parliament that is true to its calling which is to represent the interest of people. Now Andrew say "if Museveni does not re-assert his authority now, Parliament may run out of control". On contrary it is the executive that has run out control on how they deal with public good. Mwenda you may be in some comfort zones and this may be influencing your subjective analysis, for the rest of Uganda we need to recover sanity. Government should be held responsible for their actions. Uganda parliament has come to maturity, and so your advise to Museveni is misplaced, may be it can work in justice insensitive Rwanda. After these many years uganda deserves separation of powers in government

• 
• +2
• 
• 

UPSIDE DOWN ANALYSIS
written by Mukiibi, December 25, 2011

I will continue to point out that Mwenda indeed lacks in his analysis where he gets everything upside down ending up confusing the unsuspecting. For instance, Mwenda in this article stresses the Afro barometer polls about Museveni's support as indication that Museveni indeed had that percentage of support from the people and he indeed won that 68%. Before even the polls, Museveni himself pontificated the percentage he would win by. In fact he was Idi Amin reincarnate who always told people how his dreams guided policy and that he exactly knew when he would die, how he dreamt at nine years old that he would be army commander and president

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by Mukiibi, December 25, 2011

Museveni applied the same logic which leads anyone with a brain to know election results were all made up by Kiggundu and the corrupt Electoral Commission. If Mwenda wonders still why opposition to M7 has sprung up and cranks up a false theory to stagger slow thinkers that Museveni didnt to rob the treasury to win by 68% baffles me to what his intention is. The fact is, M7 will never again have the kind of support Mwenda and the cronies give him in Uganda. Even the so called peasants don't support Museveni. Museveni's support is dependent upon fear which is waning and people have now come out to reclaim their rights.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

...
written by Mukiibi, December 25, 2011

The fact is Museveni no matter how much Mwenda tries to confuse facts, has never won a free election. He doesn't have that support any longer and will never have it again no matter what. Mwenda, you wrote this article to again confuse people basing on fraudlent polls taken by Afro barometer. We all know how polls are conducted in Uganda, not only that you have to get permission from the State House to conduct these polls, but they also set the conditions and some of the questions that must be asked to those being surveyed. So even the polls themselves are not free and fair. Mwenda, you are a disgrace, a fraudster and a deceit whose veil has been lifted just like M7's was!!!

• 
• -1
• 
• 

discount ugg boots
written by discount ugg boots, December 27, 2011

The ugg boots crafted from the best obtainable materials. The History of barbour jackets Since 1894, ugg boots sale Sons have created garments perfectly. it’s this commitment to quality and sturdiness that has seen the name barbour quilted jackets become synonymous with the most effective of country living. the start of genuine ugg boots In 1894 .Supplying oilskins and ladies barbour jacket to safeguard the growing community ,

• 
• +0
• 
• 

discount ugg boots
written by discount ugg boots, December 27, 2011

The ugg boots crafted from the best obtainable materials. The History of barbour jackets Since 1894, ugg boots sale Sons have created garments perfectly. it’s this commitment to quality and sturdiness that has seen the name barbour quilted jackets become synonymous with the most effective of country living. the start of genuine ugg boots In 1894 .Supplying oilskins and ladies barbour jacket to safeguard the growing community ,

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Museveni's Post - Election
written by Mcmorris, January 03, 2012

Hello, Andrew Mwenda i partially agree with you on your analysis on M7 Post- election.W2W drama,, scaring away Tourists and Investors thus low foreign exchange in circulation leading to dollar and other foreign currencies to gain, then our Ugandan Shs. losing value.
besides that, profit repatriation is also ragging this country behind, Long Draught leading to less supply of food commodities and sugar on the market, therefore resulting to increase on the prices of food commodities. reduced inflow of oil due to unrests in Afro- Arab countries such as Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and Iraq. this did not only affect Uganda but the World over.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Michael Kors Outlet
written by Michael Kors Outlet, February 17, 2012

The Michael Kors Outlet is not a location that Michael Kors Outlet usually consider prime advertising real estate.

• 
• +0
• 
• 

Name

Email

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

I have read and agree to the Terms of Usage.

Add Comment Preview