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Gaddafi is gone, what next?

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Andrew MwendaI hope that my prediction is wrong because future generations of Libyans will be happy that I was wrong.

I am writing this column on the morning of Monday August 22nd.

By the time it is read, Libyan leader Muammar El Gaddafi might no longer be supreme ruler of that country. He might either be dead, in jail or exile. It is one of those ironies of history that his sons and many of his apparatchik were caught in Tripoli before they could flee. It seems they did not imagine they could lose power so quickly. If absolute power corrupts absolutely, it also blinds people completely.

 

Gaddafi’s fall is both good and bad news for Libya. It is good news because finally, a psychopathic tyrant who had intimidated, terrorised and bullied Libyans for 42 years has been toppled. Of course this is not to say that Gaddafi did nothing good.

Stories abound of social welfare and other pro-people and pro-poor programmes under him. However, for many years he spent Libyan money on foreign wars and self aggrandisement; watching jubilant crowds in Misrata and Benghazi reveals that his fall is a big relief to many Libyans.

But it is also sad news for Libya because the effort to remove Gaddafi was largely conducted by western powers whose involvement undermined its democratic content. Initially, the Libyan uprising was a grassroots movement anchored in the people. Ordinary people took to the streets to protest his tyranny and even bring him down. When Gaddafi made his infamous speech threatening to kill everyone who challenged his rule and sent fighter bombers to kill peaceful demonstrators, he had crossed the line.

Initially, NATO intervened under a UN mandate to protect civilians from Gaddafi’s psychopathic mania. However, instead of protecting civilians and letting Libyans shape their destiny, NATO expanded this mandate to regime change. Of course regime change was not a bad idea – most democratic minded people wanted to see Gaddafi go. However, the way NATO decided to execute this plan has powerful implications on the future of democracy in Libya and the institutional integrity of the Libyan state.

For a movement to be democratic, the driving force has to be those most affected by the forces of tyranny. Secondly, the primary function of the state is to ensure basic law and order i.e. protection of persons and property. In the context of an armed struggle for power, success demands that the triumphant forces destroy the military and security infrastructure of the regime in order to seize power from the incumbents. However, such destruction leaves a power vacuum as the main infrastructure of security collapses.

In more successful experiences like the communists in China, Cuba and Vietnam or the NRA in Uganda, Frelimo in Mozambique, MPLA in Angola, RPF in Rwanda, EPLF in Eritrea and TPLF in Ethiopia, the victorious armed group had centrally directed and well developed military organisation to effectively take charge of the state and re-establish a stable and sustainable political order. This was possible because victory was a product of having developed internal capabilities. It is this initial endowment that makes post conflict reconstruction successful.

However, in cases where the victorious group was largely helped by a foreign power to capture power (UNLA in Uganda in 1979, Iraqi exiles after the fall of Saddam, Hamid Kazai after the fall of the Taliban and Lebanon during Israeli occupation), once the dictator falls, the country degenerates into anarchy. This is largely because the victorious group lacked internal organisational capabilities to ensure a stable political order while its external backers, however strong they may have been financially and militarily, lacked local knowledge and nuances that make stability possible.

Moreover, because its power-base is the strength of its external allies, the victorious group tends to have little incentive to achieve internal political and social integration. External backers tend to have a certain set of values and principles that drove them to get involved in a conflict. For example, western countries have particular principles regarding democracy, elections, free media and justice. So they tend to encourage their local auxiliaries to seek these ideals regardless of context.

Now, because the strength and legitimacy of the local group that has taken over power are derived from their external allies, the new power-holders may be encouraged to pursue such an idealistic agenda without being sensitive to local peculiarities. For example, they may seek victors’ justice to please their external patrons ignoring the tradeoffs, compromises and bargains that make internal political integration possible. For example, the UNLF may have feared to make peace with some of Idi Amin’s people for fear of being misunderstood by Julius Nyerere.

Yet Libya’s situation is worse. First, the rebels have achieved an artificial victory. It is not so much their fire power but rather the bombardment by NATO that tilted the balance of power in their favour. This means that rebels won artificially and Gaddafi lost artificially.  Second, the rebels lack a unifying ideology. The only thing that unites them is hatred of Gaddafi. Now that he is gone, what else will unite them? Third, they lack a centrally organised and directed command and control centre. Fourth, they are all armed. Fifth, NATO is not sending boots on the ground to help them reestablish order.

There is nothing that tears men apart than a contest over money. Even in small companies with shares worth less than US$ 30,000, former friends turn into bitter enemies when the sharing of the benefits of such shareholding comes into play. Even in homes, when a father dies leaving a small estate, brother turns against brother, daughter against mother. Most divorces become nasty at the point of sharing property.

Now, bring this insight into post-Gaddafi Libya with all these structural problems pointed out above. The victorious rebels now have to sit down and decide who controls the billions of money from oil. Indeed, most rebel commanders will want to get access to oil proceeds immediately.

Because they are armed, it is very likely that any disagreement will be resolved militarily. And if a military confrontation begins before the political and security situation stabilises, it will be extremely difficult to build a stable political order. The road to Mogadishu will have been paved. I hope that my prediction is wrong because future generations of Libyans will be happy that I was wrong.

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Comments (53)Add Comment
a real possibility
written by Joseph Stewart, August 27, 2011
Andrew, this is a brilliant insight and a very realistic possiblility that NATO ignored or did not care about. It surprises me that NATO has not taken stock of its failures in Iraq and Afghanistan where it has boots on the ground and is yet unable to ensure a stable political order as you call it and now thinks it can use the airforce to bomb Gadaffi out of power, send no troops on the ground and rely on the rebels to ensure that stability. it will be a miracle for those rebels, now statesmen, to ensure order in Libya. Soon the looting will begin and after that, war. This seems like a calm before the storm.
...
written by Joseph Stewart, August 27, 2011
That said, there is little in the press about these dangers. Ten years later, Afghanistan is a mess and the government of Hamid Kazai with all of NATO's military and financial support is finding it difficult to govern that country outside of Kabul and a few other towns. And eight years later, Iraq is still a failed state. Where does Obama who came arguing against idealistic missions of regime change get the conviction that it will work in Libya?
Its all about oil
written by Kassim , August 27, 2011
Joseph, NATO's interest in Libya is oil, the claims about protecting civillians or promoting regime change to establish democracy as an excuse to justify this agenda. Therefore, Obama was not being idealistic about regime change because there is a difference between the real objective behind the involvement in Libya and the official explanation given. Throughout this Arab spring, we have seen less oil rich countries like Yemen and Syria do worse to their people than Gadaffi and NATO has only talked and not acted. Its allies in Bahrain called in the Saudis who massacred with impunity as NATO turned a bling eye
Good piece
written by Joseph Mubiru, August 27, 2011
Andrew, this is a very good article and it pains me that you are the only one who has been pointing out the strategic mistakes of western intervention in Libya. Most people think that the removal of Gadaffi is a good thing per se. However, removing a dictator can cause more damage than it intends to solve. You cannot have peace when there are many men holding kalashinikovs sitting around a table to share billions worth of oil dollars - it is just basic common sense. if they disagree on how much each one should take, what will they do - kiss each other or shoot at each other? let us wait and see.
Be optimistic
written by Omoding, August 27, 2011
Mwenda, please try to be optimistic. The doom and gloom picture you paint of post Gadaffi Libya may be a possibility but it is not the only possibility. It is very possibly and highly probable that the rebels will succeed in establishing stability, find some level of agreement through mutual accomodation. For example, we are not seeing the looting that we saw in Iraq. Second, they have promised amnesty. So they are not following idealistic expectations of their NATO allies. And in spite of some major and manifest weaknesses, they seem to have control of their fighters.
relief this time
written by captain no packing, August 27, 2011
Ah, this debate is going smoothly. I hope the quarrelsome, the angry, the ignorant and the fanatics do not joint it. This is the first time I am reading comments that are focused on issues, not emotions and insults. where have the anti mwenda forces gone?
The transition journey is on
written by Joe.K, August 27, 2011
Mwenda must realise that 42 years of Gaddafi's oppressive brutal rule was just enough for the Libyan people to build enough opposition critical mass. What Libyans needed was that extra NATO helping hand to free themselves from the bondage of this callous dictator. With all the lessons learnt from Iraq and Afghanistan, NATO is in good position to help Libya transition into a democratic success, and this journey is in its second phase. I am sure in a year or two, Mwenda you will be proven wrong, as always!.
Kassim is right
written by kato, August 28, 2011
Kassim has it right. I am tired of these naive people who desperately want to believe that world powers go to war for humanitarian reasons. These clueless people who continue to claim disappontment because they believed lies being told to them by invaders ar ethe height of childshness. They probably still believe that santa clause is for real and rats take their teeth in exchange for money. Though Kassim is wrong to say that poor Yemen is oil rich.
...
written by Major Adam Kifaliso, August 28, 2011
Gaddafi is gone .....! m7 also must go , unless Uganda are stupid to let him stay to enjoy his sh******t
Whose victory?
written by victor, August 28, 2011
"First, the rebels have achieved an artificial victory." The battle for Libya has only began. The TNC thugs are still worried. It's NATO that bombed the country for them. Nowonder they are called NATO rebels. For those applauding NATO or TNC should digger deeper and find out why the West was bombing Gaddafi residence to kill him. Gaddafi funded ANC to free South Africa from the racist regime. Give credit where it is due. The direct democracy where the village committees elected their leaders left the West frustrated. Libya is full of oil which the West wants cheaply for its own people, not 'democracy' for Libyans.
Mubiru Joseph, what are u up to?
written by Kabako, August 28, 2011
I don’t see anything new in your comment than what AM wrote. Worse still, you shoot yourself in the mouth. “You cannot have peace when there are many men holding kalashinikovs sitting around a table to share billions worth of oil dollars - it is just basic common sense” To you this is oblivious. If so, why “if they disagree on how much each one should take what will they do - kiss each other or shoot at each other?, let us wait and see” You are very sure but not sure. Hope it’s not bipolar at work.
Real change is possible
written by allan, August 28, 2011
Tilting balance of power in Libya was very important. Just like Rome was not built in one day, it is unrealistic to expect a political order in Libya in a short period of time. But what we see in Libya now is ‘a quite level ground’ which provides an idea atmosphere for a smart actor to impose himself over others.
Real Change is possible
written by allan, August 28, 2011
A stalemate among local actors is likely to happen because of so much western power mediated influence in the short run, which is not sustainable and such conditions create disorganization for smart leader to exploit and impose him on others. More lives will be lost but this shouldn’t be a big concern in the long run. Why? Save for replacing a Gaddaffi with another; there not so many available alternatives at the moment, it is practical, and can restore political order in post conflict areas, especially Africa.
...
written by Musiru, August 28, 2011
Museveni must have been watching with his balls frozen alone in room his Tax payers built mansion. As am sure he did not want his handlers to see him sweating and trembling His day is coming to pay the Piper. Gadaffi his Buddy is eating dust in his underground like an Ant, State house better deepen his bunker which am sure runs direct to the Private Airport where he parks his $45 Million Gulf Stream 5 ready to run like a chicken.

Dictators are the greatest Cowards.

During the Kabaka riots museveni abandoned his 100 car convoy and fled to Entebbe in civilian cars. Then went on TV to beat his chest. What a wimp!
...
written by Musiru, August 28, 2011
Ok let me for once be true to Muhendas topic. Quadaffi is done. Give the new era a chance all you nay Sayers who would rather have Gadaffi in power because he was donating Libyan peoples money to your Mosques and importing Batoro whores for his Generals to enjoy via the best of them all in Best kemigisa thats your Problem.

Zuma was quiet when Libyans were being killed by the Mad Dog, now he is done. the AU the most useless Organization ever will not recognize them, very typical of the African Union or African Joke.

The African Dictators have looted Billions but wont even donate to Somalia, they fly out in shiny jest just to take pictures and smile like the morons they are
...
written by Musiru, August 28, 2011
Before you even retort that Museveni is helping in Somalia, he is not helping Somalians, he is there to keep himself relevant in the region in the eyes of the Americans and other real powers for his own selfish ends as always. He will kiss ass and pretend to be helping while the UN pays for "his Soldiers" who are even taxed Njaulo by their fat lazy Commanders in Kampala.
...
written by Musiru, August 28, 2011
Ugandans have enough on their plates what with the dollar heading to 3000 shillings and the Dictator actively trying tto loot the Mabira timber under the guise of sugar planting when did Museveni ever care about Ugandans needs? why has he not reduced the taxes on petroleum products? or given Teachers and Doctors and Nurses competitive wages? while he pays high wages and facilitates his praise singers in RDCs and deaf and dumb Presidential advisers are paid for sitting on their asses and keeping their mouths shut!

Oh i remember he did a real Generous deed. Donated to some Tanzanian University or college and donated $300Gs inRwanda too. Reminds me of Gadaffi the most generous Dictator.

Dictators believe charity begins away from home. Unless you are a Family member or boot licker
The question should be "who next", "not what next"?
written by Dian Kenneth, August 28, 2011
Andrew, long serving African presidents (or is it dictators) are being over thrown. Do you see any precedent or trend here? If so, I think we should focus our next discussion on "who next (and why)" after Gadafi.
...
written by Musiru, August 28, 2011
Quadaffi is quoted as saying he wants to negotiate with the "rats" translation: he running out of places to hide! Mad dog wants to go out on his terms. Dictators are egomaniacs to the bitter end. Get his sorry ass and humiliate him like he has humiliated Libyans for 42 years.
...
written by Wenna Tikku, August 28, 2011
NATO had to intervene as the military mighty of Gadafi was not like the one of Mubarack. Those who always oppose external intervention point to Iraq. The rebels in Libya di not exist in Iraq and so these are different situations. Mwenda can not bundle them together and be pessimistic. What about the Tanzanian intervention in Uganda. I heard the other day on BBC Sam Kutesa struggling to condemn the so called external intervention and that Uganda will never accept that, something like reading signs of the times. If we always accuse the West why go for Support in terms of Aids, Grants etc, What is the difference then!
Double Standards or Triple Standards
written by victor, August 28, 2011
Dian Kenneth, Omar Bongo ruled for 35 years with the support of France a NATO member. His son Ali Ben Bongo has now taken over, still with the support of the French soldiers who are residents of Gabon. Who next? It cannot be Gabon because the French are sucking the country of all its oil wealth and supporting a family dynasty. It is not about the length of stay of a president in an oil rich country so long as that country allows the NATO members like France to have their way. It is not about good governance or democracy as you try to tell us. It is about control of the country with oil by those NATO countries. NATO countries are full of double standards and Gaddafi opposed them that's why they are taking him out.
Idea of rebels in Libya mooted in the West
written by victor, August 28, 2011
I still believe that the rebels in Libya was a creation in the West. Hillary Clinton shuttled all over Europe to campaign for support to arm Libyan rebels. That was because Gaddafi was formidable and could not be removed by mere peaceful protestors in in Egypt or Tunisia. Even the lie that Gaddafi was about to massacre civilians in Benghazi is now well known. These people have frozen $170 billion worth of assets belonging to Libya. If the West is not full of criminals then what are they? What kind of 'revolution' is imposed by foreigners? The result is now what we see - thousands of bodies rotting in the streets! This far NATO has 'protected' civilians by bombing them, killing them, and invading their country.
Our president is MAD hiring Death Row Convicts to run Uganda
written by Major Adam Kifaliso, August 28, 2011
Andrew , I have heard a rumour that you advised m7 to take on Rwakasisi as a presidential advisor ? the convicted murderer ....! He will now be paid like a minister and enjoy free trips outside Uganda and medical care in Europe and USA like Kayihura who now takes his anti anxiety drugs on time and has gone back to normal ! Kayihura no longer rants in public like Gaddafi....! He didn't go to Butabika he went to Germany , I hear too ,that a medical team from North Korea will treat m7's now clinical Dementia from his homes in between cabinet meetings ,
Gaddafi had to go.
written by Agaba Rugaba, August 29, 2011
Andrew, you make a very strong a rguement but probably you have to put a caveat on it. Gaddafi and his son Saif had threatened to cleanse Libya of "the dirt and scam" in reference to the protesters in Beghanzi. He employed mercenaries that committed attrocities. The International Worls and West in particular would be damned if they sat by and allowed another Rwanda unveil before TV cameras. On the oil, let us not kid our selves, that black goid oils the wheels of the world economy. Our economies here in Africa would be damned if the western and asian economies were troubled. Ironically, the West's oil interest serve sub saharan economic interests too.
Well said Agaba
written by Marvin Ya Kuku, August 29, 2011
We live in a global economy and western Interventions will affect Africa in some way however imperialist they may seem. From working as a guard in Iraq to Oil prices it all adds up. To dismiss NATO's intervention as a precursor to Libyan in- fighting is speculation at best or an inferiority complex at worst. I would prefer to have a righteous fight than to have an unjust peace, a peace so many "Afrocentrics" who readily point at the west's contradictions in poorly led countries want us to live under with dire consequences. Enough is enough
Western Bashing: A fashion?
written by Ali Pong, August 29, 2011
May some expert explain to me how exactly oil is stolen? If NATO is there for the oil, how are they going to steal it? Are western countries really getting Iraqi oil for free?

Kassim, isn't time that people like you stepped forward and implemented your preferred solutions for the world to see? I think in Syria's case the "West" is providing opportunity for other countries to come forward.

To those against NATO action- no country would want to police a No-only-fly-zone for ten years with a dictator sitting there and making belligerent statements.
Victor, you are very much discussing "who next and why"-exactly the area we might want to focus on next time
written by Dian Kenneth, August 29, 2011
I am entirely in agreement that when you dance to the tune of the Western powers, you will always remain in power however much you abuse your people. My question then is what precedent is being set and do we see a trend here?
NATO has been of help: The Libyan Revolution is Afro-Arab Success Story
written by Ocheto, August 29, 2011
Despite getting a helping hand from NATO, the success of the rebels in routing the brutal and repressive regime of the Gadhafis is a success story of Afro-Arab geopolitics. It borders on a complex to impute that whenever and wherever NATO it is their call. The Libyan revolution is owned and authored by Libyans themselves. African Union should go ahead and recognize the TNC and bring it into the Africa and Arab fold so as to influence the outcome of the next Libya in Africa's favor. The problem with African Union is it is always falling behind events, global and local, and only to reactively cry foul when they should be staying ahead of issues. Embrace and influence the TNC and move on past the erstwhile Mad Max of Africa.
Oil
written by Maliyamungu, August 29, 2011
For Nto this was more an economic project than a humatarian one. Peroid!
Only trees bearing fruit get pelted with stones: Libya won't be Iraq
written by Ocheto, August 29, 2011
The US "invaded" Iraq, but Americans have yet to receive any dollar from Iraq. Ironically instead Iraqis are demanding that America pay a billion dollars for destroying Baghdad, their capital city. Moreover NATO is not going to make the same mistakes the US made in Iraq, namely debaathification of Iraq. The politics of witch hunt doomed the US administration of Iraq. They should have focused on changing the political system and let Saddam Hussein’s bureaucracy more or else intact. The fault is not to be found with the police or low ranks in military. Libyans who served in Gadhafis forces will not be forbidden from serving the next Libyan government, soley because they served under Gadhafi.
Focusing on solely oil misses the bigger picture
written by Ocheto, August 29, 2011
There is more going on than simpy oil.
...
written by captain no packing, August 30, 2011
Clearly Ocheto lacks basic information. American companies have taken contracts in Iraq that exceed one trillion dollars. the US government does not need to collect reparations from Iraq for someone to know that America is profiting from this imperial enterprise. even the british government made "losses" in all their colonial projects. So We should not be surprised when American govt makes no money directly. It is always their companies that make the killing
...
written by Musiru, August 30, 2011
No Packing even a child can see that Gadaffi and His crazy sons were long past their sale by dates in Libyan politics. Nobody asked Gadaffi to start bombing peaceful protesters just like our own Dictator Museveni routinely kills and and beats them up and then brags about crushing them afterwards.

Gadaffi has had oil revenue from day one, why are Libyans so badly off? As We dream of oil in Bunyoro remember if Museveni and his cronies could loot Uganda for 25 years, he will very successfully loot all the proceeds from the so called oil and Ugandans will still say Mzee Pakalast. Mbabazi and Kuteesa are ready to help make it happen and the legions of good "cadres" placed strategically all over will finish the job.
...
written by Musiru, August 30, 2011
The man is shameless, taken Entebbe Hospital from the Locals to treat his pampered 20,000 strong Presidential Guard Brigade. He lives on a whole hill why cant they squeeze a small space and build their own Hospital? How much is enough for these people?
He can Donate Billions to Bassajabalaba and spend t trillions on Election Purchases but wont find a few Million to build Hospital for the guys that keep his ass alive! Ugandans must bleed their last drop for the absolute comfort of one man and his cronies.
Term Limit removal was the worst thing our stupid greedy MP's have ever done.
...
written by Musiru, August 30, 2011
Many Libyans and so many other Nationals of other countries would willingly let someone come and take part of their oil or natural resources to help them get rid of a tyrant who was looting the oil revenue anyway and torturing and killing them. Just for them to live a live of dignity devoid of fear and intimidation and poverty surrounded by oil that was not helping them.

Look at the Ugandan Picture, the president lives in a $55 Million crib, rides in a $48 Million jet, spends Shs 300 hundred Million a day for his office and family. And rubs salt in Ugandans wounds by telling them he and his family are sacrificing for us! That is not enough Mabira Timber must be stolen too! He has more advisers than Obama. None of them even know how to pronounce Mabira!

Nato Propaganda (1)
written by Maazi N, August 30, 2011
Sorry, Mr. Mwenda, but there are strong credible doubts that protests. According to the Justice Louise Arbour led International Crisis Group (ICG) that are strog indications that the protests that eventually culminated in the Libyan civil war was entirely peaceful from the start and it is false that Libyan dictator Col Gaddafi used airplanes to bomb crowds from the air.
Nato Propaganda (2)
written by Maazi N, August 30, 2011
The brutality of the Libyan troops to the mixture of peaceful protesters and armed rebels prior to UN Security Council Resolution 1973 were no worse than the brutality meted out by Mubarak and Ben Ali to protesters in Egypt and Tunisia repectively. The claim that Gaddafi was using bombers against Libyans is just propaganda to help secure NATO justification to intervene in what was simply a civil war. Most of the bombers sent to Benghazi were merely engaging armed insurgents and weapon depositories. The stories that Gaddafi ordered truck loads of Viagra for his soldiers to rape women and claims that he placed children on top of armoured vehicles to avoid NATO bombing is just part of the propaganda script
Nato Propaganda (1)--correction
written by Maazi N, August 30, 2011
CORRECTION TO COMMENT TITLED "NATO PROPAGANDA (1)":

Sorry, Mr. Mwenda, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG) led by Canadian Judge Louise Arbour, there are strong indications that the protests--- that eventually culminated in the Libyan civil war--- were far from being entirely peaceful. There was armed rebellion alongside peaceful protests from Day One. It is false that Libyan dictator Col Gaddafi used airplanes to bomb crowds from the air according to ICG reports...
...
written by Musiru, August 30, 2011
Mazzi stop crying in your beer, Quadaffi is gone, get used to it and move on! And so will Museveni.

Since all the shallow heads here believe that NATO was after oil in Libya, Lo and Behold! Uganda has oil so let them come for the oil and kick the Dictator Museveni and His greedy family and friends out. Thank God For Oil Lol
Some lowly Captain Goon
written by Ocheto, August 30, 2011
To some idiotic "captain" who has no nerve to show goon’s name. Other than rephrasing what I alluded to when I wrote focusing solely on oil misses the bigger picture, what facts have you really provided? Most of those so-called companies were/are paid by the US treasury, through borrowing from China. By buying US debt the Chinese/British/Japanese are bankrolling the wars, hence the ballooning US debt which is running into tens of trillions, making talking about a trillion dollars laughable. You are better of returning to hide in your shadowy world under some rock than exposing your simplemindedness.
...
written by Major Adam Kifaliso, August 31, 2011
Why is it easy for m7 to give land to bogus investors than throw a blanket to homeless people in Uganda ? MPs get millions while handful of Ugandans sleep outside because of rains , mudslides and high winds , funny enough the govt was quick to buy coffins !
Game over for despots....
written by Ip Man, August 31, 2011
Gaddafi once advised his friend Yoweri Museveni that "revolutionaries" don't retire, guess what, he was actually right! As it turns out, bogus revolutionaries don't retire but are eventually booted out by the people! Indeed every despot must be quaking in their boots following recent spate of events wondering whether they are the next domino piece that will come crashing down to earth! It seems dictatorship is going out of fashion these days at an astonishing rate! The Guinness Book of Records must be having a tough time keeping up!
...
written by Musiru, August 31, 2011

Right On Ip Man. Dictators are very endangered species, thats why Museveni bought those Russian jets to scare Ugandans into submission because he knows the game is up. In fact after buying the jets he resurrected the Mabira nonsense, i guess he wants an excuse to test them or something.

The tide of change is not stoppable, not even the 500,000 strong Presidential Guard Brigade of Saddam could save his ass. Museveni has 20,000 who will run for the hills the moment they realise the game is up. Survival instinct is way stronger than loyalty especially when they pretend praise singers are only there to feed their families and loot.
...
written by Musiru, August 31, 2011
Like Some American Commentator said, the shell of the Dictatorship is hard , but the inside is very soft, once the shell is broken things collapse faster than a pack of cards. Thats why they are so paranoid, because they know the reality of how fragile their positions are. So they rule by instilling fear, but once that fear is no more its their time to flee.
Well the article is worth a pinch of salt
written by Muzukulu wa Buganda, August 31, 2011
I gues when Mwenda chooses to practice professional journalism and put on halt the biased promotion of his benefactors and their cronies he is still worth something.
Student
written by Henry, August 31, 2011
I pray this wont happen but i foresee a Tripoli which will make Mogadishu look like a picnic ground.
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What a load of croak!
written by kintu, September 01, 2011
Mwenda, would you have had the war go on endlessly until Qaddafi won, or until the rebels finally emerged victors standing on a mountain of dead bodies! The NATO solution was actually the best. It robbed one side of the heavy weaponry and put the protagonists on the same footing. After that it was a matter of which side had the population on their side!
Thanks.
written by how to get your ex back, September 14, 2011
I think you make a very strong a requirement but probably you have to put a caveat on it.[
Lybia may never be peaceful anymore
written by Gorilla trekking, September 16, 2011
The people in last stand of Gaddafi don't trust the rebels and this will lead to rebellion.
http://bitterbananas.com/qadda...th-asking/
written by anglina, April 02, 2013
Former Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi was reported to have been killed in October 2011. Although his deeds have been discussed for a long time and apparently the situation in Libya will continue be in the news in the future, Qaddafi’s death left some questions worth asking.

Why Libya got attacked?

ans view here http://bitterbananas.com/qadda...th-asking/
Your prediction was right
written by Turakira Reagan, October 10, 2013
Sadly for future generations of Libyans, your prediction was spot on.
CEO
written by Titus, November 17, 2013
Andrew you are brilliant. The western powers have always failed to plan for an excellent exist. They always leave a messed up country wherever they go. We always wonder about the democracy left behind. It's only the gun that justifies the end.

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