ENEMY PLANS
To have raised a force of 10,000 people by the end of Dec 2001, with which to launch an attack on Uganda, they are assured of re-enforcement by RPA and RCD-Goma. If uninterrupted, they intend to attack around Jan or Feb 2002. Other sources say that MANDE was eager to attack earlier than Jan 2002, if it had not been for KABANDA, who quoted his experience under UPDF pressure/forces.
Concurrent coverage from RPA is a sure deal, since the RPA is planning to occupy the whole of Northern, Eastern DRC by chasing away RCD-ML of MBUSA NYAMWISI, taking over all former UPDF defence positions.
After losing about 20 Ugandan dissidents, who failed to cope with the type of food (cassava flour), they have resolved to start purchasing foodstuffs from Uganda, through border points of KYESHERO, BUTOGOTA, ISHASHA and BUNAGANA. They are to target MAIZE, BEANS, RICE, GROUNDNUTS and COWS from KIHIHI, KAMBUGA and BUTOGOTA.
After a joint tour of TONGO, they are proposing to turn that Bamboo location into a SENIOR COMMAND CAMP. During the meeting, Lt. Col. Mande told the enemy commanders at KATONGA, KABATI and KIKUKU that the means to sustain the struggle against MUSEVENI is already in place, and what they hear about the LONDON talks of Museveni and Kagame are just to buy time for them to grow in NUMBERS and EQUIPMENT.
They are targeting Vitcumbi and Kigezi on Lake Edward, from where the RPA marines will launch concurrent attacks through KANUNGU, QUEEN ELIZABETH NATIONAL PARK and RWENZORI axis, then lastly on KISORO and NTUNGAMO, to avoid involving Rwanda directly.
OBSERVATIONS
Enemy forces are freely operating too close to our borders with DRC. An indication that the effects of war will harm Uganda more than the mentors, Rwanda. In this case, Rwanda will be seen to be indirectly involved, or not at all, hence winning justification for its propaganda attacks on Uganda.
RPA’s deployments in areas close to our common border with DRC may be our tactical mistake, which will cost us dearly when our enemies begin attacks on Uganda. It appears our withdrawal from BUTEMBO was a premature step. This is why our enemies have taken advantaqe of it and re-organised themselves from there.
Enemy forces may be planning to launch a concurrent and surprise NIGHT ATIACK on Uganda, well aware that UPDF normally operates during the day. This is justified by the enemy’s concentration on teaching a MICROGALILI GUN and others that have night vision gadgets.
Their persistent alliance with RCD-Goma, compared with our dwindling alliance with RCD-Kisangani will leave us vulnerable to a combination of enemy forces that will prove expensive to counter. The remedy would be to pre-empt their plans to build themselves up to full capacity.
RPA presence in the areas of LUBERO, MANGUREDJIPA etc in BUTEMBO may be aimed at launching a surprise attack on our few forces in BENI purposely to humiliate the mighty UPDF by killing, disarming, and capturing weapons from them.
C BAHWEZI
Capt
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