Politics is a game of numbers. The more numbers of members you have the more votes you may talk about in an election. Every political party has been making claims of how their membership and voter strength have gone up. During its National Executive Conference in January, the NRM declared it had registered 8 million members including the under-age.

This was before the Electoral Commission started the national voter registration exercise which also yielded about 15 million voters, up from 10 million in 2006. Nearly six months later the party says its members have increased to 9 million. The NRM has been registering people it calls its members across the country. The registration and the figure have sparked controversy within and outside the party. The opposition says the figure is meant to prepare ground for election rigging in 2011.  

The Electoral Commission also doubts the authenticity of the NRM figure. Early this year, the NRM also had doubted the genuineness of the EC’s national voter register, alleging that it contained two million ghost names.

So are the figures telling a lie?

A combination of the two seemingly unrealistic figures by the NRM and the Electoral Commission has further complicated the puzzle. Uganda’s demographic statistics put the 2009 population projections at 30.6 million. Of these, 16.6 million were below 18 years. The population projections for 2010 are 32 million people and 17.8 million are aged below 18. This implies that 14.2 million Ugandans are above 18 and thus qualified to register as voters. Population estimates published by the Population Secretariat rise even more questions on the EC’s 15 million voters. The estimates for 2010 show Ugandans of 18 years and above are 13.9 million, up from 12.9 million in 2008. Those below 18 years are 17.8 million and 16.6 million for 2010 and 2008 respectively.

Given the high apathy among Ugandans to register for voting and death of some registered voters, the number of new voters would even be far less than the population and demographic projections of 14 million adults. That’s why 15 million voters, about 5 million new voters since 2006, looks unrealistic. 

However, the EC has said this is not the final figure. It’s subject to further clean up and the accurate figure will be attained after ridding the national voter register of ghost names and double or multiple registration.

Some MPs in the NRM have already accused the party secretariat of creating ghost members on the party register which could facilitate rigging during the primary elections. Kinkizi east MP Chris Baryomunsi has cited that a person’s name would be manipulated to appear several times on the same register purportedly as different individuals. At the recent NRM National Conference some delegates complained that even well known opposition members had been included on the party register by some NRM officials for selfish interests.

The NRM deputy spokesman Ofwono Opondo has said that not all the nine million NRM registered members are eligible to vote as one million are underage (below 18 years). However, here lies a big question; who will stop a 16-year-old registered NRM member from voting if he/she also registered with the Electoral Commission during the national registration exercise?

The trend of growth of registered voters since 1996 elections  shows an average increase of 2 million voters from one election to the next. In the 1996 elections 8.5 million registered to vote. This number increased to 10.7 million in 2001 and reduced slightly to 10.6 million voters in 2006. It is only in 2010 that the voter increase has been about 100%.

Statistics show that Uganda’s population has been growing at the rate of 3.2 per annum since 2003. The fertility rate has remained constant since the last population census results in 2002 when it stood at 6.9 children per woman and 6.7 in 2008 and through 2009.

Godber Tumushabe, Executive Director of ACODE, a local think-tank on public policy analysis, is sceptical about the NRM claim of 9 million members. “I doubt that can be true. It’s was not proper for the NRM to register before the national EC exercise because there is a possibility that a number of people in villages were unable to discern the national exercise from the party’s.”

He says political parties should focus on the EC national voter register for it is easy to verify and it’s more credible than any party’s register.

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