But should Uganda go to war with Kenya?

Last week, Kenyan youths in Nairobi’s Kibera slum ripped away a section of the Uganda-Kenya Railway as demonstration of anger against Uganda’s “occupation” of the disputed Migingo island in Lake Victoria.

Earlier in the week, the Luo-Nyanza council of elders meeting under the aegis of the Nyanza Strategic Recovery Forum in Kisumu had threatened to block the highway to Uganda if the country [Uganda] did not immediately and unconditionally vacate the disputed Migingo Island. In the meeting chaired by Kochiel Oloo, the forum chairperson, the leaders resolved to mobilise the locals to block the transportation of goods and fuel to Uganda if her troops do not leave the island.

Indeed days later on April 16, Kenyan police fought running battles with youths who had placed logs, stones and other objects along the Kisumu-Kericho road to block transit cargo trucks to Uganda.

The Kibera and Kisumu actions are reminiscent of the 2007 post-election violence in Kenya in which the railway line was torn apart (again in Kibera) and Ugandan registered heavy haulage trucks ambushed to punish Uganda for allegedly siding with the Kibaki government that had stolen the presidential election. The disruptions caused a shortage of fuel and other imports, nearly bringing the Ugandan economy to its knees.

“Because the [Kenya] government has failed to help our brothers in Migingo, we will do it in the manner Ugandans understand best. Ugandans need to know we feed them. They should not try to intimidate the hand that feeds them,” a youth is quoted saying in Kenya’s daily newspaper, The Standard.

These actions are riding on a wave of rhetoric, demagoguery and hysteria by Kenyan politicians and the media that have over the past several weeks galvanised the country with many calling for war with Uganda to recover the island.

Kenya’s Assistant Defence Minister David Musila was quoted in the press saying; “Uganda has literally annexed Kenyan land by hoisting their flag and deployment of the security personnel at Migingo,” adding, that “what Uganda [is] doing was tantamount to aggression.”

Kenyan MPs Simon Mbugua (Kamukunji) and Omondi Anyanga (Nyatike) were also quoted in the local press challenging President Mwai Kibaki to speak out and show some macho: “If you cannot protect an island, how can you protect the whole country,” Mbugua asked.

Another seven MPs led by Nicholas Gumbo (Rarieda) petitioned President Kibaki to declare Uganda a “hostile neighbour” and forcibly take control of Migingo Island. They demanded that the navy and army be sent to the island. “Uganda is no longer a friend. It has invaded our land and it is time we acted to protect our sovereignty,” said Gumbo.

Last week, the hysteria that has consumed the Kenyan media reached a crescendo with an April 17 headline in The Standard: “Revealed: The truth on Migingo!”.

The article went on to disparage the joint boundary demarcation taskforce set up by the two governments a few weeks ago.

“The combined governments of Kenya and Uganda require two months to determine the case — but we today reveal the truth about who owns the island. The Standard team took just one week to lift the lid on the vexing question — it is Kenya’s. Period. And as politicians and government functionaries took Kenyans round in circles through diplo-speak, colonial maps from 1917 and updated in 1946 exclusively published in The Standard today indicate that Migingo — then known as Ugingo — is our sovereign territory. The maps define the boundaries of the then British territories of Kenya Colony and Protectorate, and are considered the authority in determining the boundaries. In the map, Pyramid and Ilemba islands are shown as belonging to Uganda,” the newspaper article read in part.

Taking a cue from its politicians and the media, several Kenyan internet blogs are awash with discussion of Migingo, with many agitated comments calling for war or the overthrow of “weakling” President Mwai Kibaki and “confused” Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

“Let us face the truth; Kenya is too soft on the Migingo row. How long will (Uganda President) Museveni continue bullying people of Great Lakes Region. Tz, Rwandans, Sudan and DRC all tired of this man. Uganda has never won any war; they failed to catch Kony, failed in DRC and are failing in Somalia. Kenya needs a military leader to deal with all the increasing insecurity in Kenya, Somalia and the entire region,” said one blogger on http://majimbokenya.com. The website has posted photos of Kenyan military personnel, equipment and armour, perhaps to demonstrate the country’s military abilities.

Another blogger on the same site posted this: “Time out for Museveni, Kibaki and Raila. The Kenya PM is another confused fellow, he does not see the future clearly, begging for power from his own government, he has the power to order the Kenya Navy to have their presence in Lake Victoria, he has the powers to order the security to take action. Kenya Navy presence is needed in Migingo as the negotiation is on. Raila should not behave as if he is an assistance minister, crying daily in the press. Mr Odinga seems confused to me too; does he really know that he took oath to protect Kenyans. No country plays politics with borders; Raila’s behaviour in this saga clearly shows us his weakness, even if he became President of Kenya. Sending Kenya Navy units to Lake Victoria will cost Kenya nothing.”

Yet another blogger at http://kenya.rcbowen.com posted this: “If I was Kibaki, I would use this opportunity to display my military might. Every man has that deep seated desire to twanga [beat] another man shitless. At least he would leave with the legacy ‘That Kabaki was a fence sitter, but if you ate his goat, may God help you!’”

Ironically as Kenya works itself into frenzy, Ugandan authorities and the public have been calm, preferring to wait for the findings of the joint boundary commission.

“There is no need to get excited. We know where the island belongs – in Uganda, and this will be established soon when the joint commission completes its findings in the next one month,” Bukhooli South MP Patrick Ochieng in whose constituency the disputed island arguably falls told The Independent last week.

The Uganda media too has been sober in its reporting of the dispute, except perhaps for the Kenyan-owned Nation TV (NTV) in Kampala which has periodically transplanted Kenyan news clips to its Ugandan audience complete with Kenyan reporters without sensitivity. The TV station is managed by Kenyans – at editorial, business and even management level. 

So where is the truth in all this? What could be the likely regional fallout when the dispute is finally resolved – diplomatically or militarily, that is if sections of the Kenyan public and politicians have their way?

So who owns Migingo?

The word “migingo” means abandoned in Luo and indeed for years, the three islands collectively known as Migingo in Lake Victoria near the Tanzanian border had no human habitation.

Squabbling over dwindling fishing resources has however put one of the islands in dispute. A joint Kenyan-Uganda technical committee established to study and demarcate the border is expected to report its findings to the two governments on May 15.

While the Luo of Kenya might have given the islands their current name, their sovereignty will be determined by the 1926 British colonial demarcations that established the two countries.

The team will therefore mainly rely on the very elaborately written-out British Order in Council of 1926 that established the current Uganda-Kenya boundary complete with coordinates, pillars and natural features. It will also rely on Schedule 2 of the Uganda Constitution (1995) – which was simply transplanted from Schedule 1 of the 1967 Uganda Constitution, The Kenya Colony and Protectorate (Boundaries) Order in Council 1926, and Kenya Legal Notice No. 718 of 1963, Schedule II Boundaries, Part I, the Districts, 37. Busia District, pp. 290–2.

The Independent has seen the contents of these documents (see quotes from Uganda and Kenya constitutions) and they are fundamentally in agreement save perhaps for the fact that the Uganda Constitution’s starting point of delineating its eastern border is at the tri-point of Uganda, Kenya and Sudan which is approximately 31.5 miles north of Mt Zulia and ending at the tri-point of Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya which is at the first parallel south (1˚ south latitude) and approximately 33˚ 56´ east longitude. Kenya’s boundary delineation on the other hand begins in Lake Victoria, at the Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya tri-point (which is not in dispute) and ends at the Sudan, Uganda and Kenya tri-point.

The same information is contained in “International Boundary Study No. 139 – August 27, 1973 of Kenya – Uganda Boundary” by the US State Department, and another publication; “African Boundaries: A Legal and Diplomatic Encyclopaedia” by Ian Brownlie of Royal Institute of International Affairs and published by C. Hurst & Co. Publishers (1979) in which the Kenya-Uganda border is described on page 946.

Overall, the Kenya-Uganda boundary extends for approximately 580 miles (933 kilometres), and the Lake Victoria segment is approximately 86 miles (138 kilometres). It is important to note that the colonial boundary demarcations in Lake Victoria followed natural features that principally included the thalweg of River Sio and a chain of islands with straight connecting points.