Alliance with Dr Besigye could alter 2011 political chessboard

Between June 4 and 6 this year, several “secret” meetings were held in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi that could have a great impact on the outcome of the 2011 presidential elections. 

At the centre of the meetings was Olara Otunnu, a prominent Ugandan politician whom the opposition Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) wants to be its flag-bearer in the elections.

Because Otunnu met a delegation of 20 party faithful from across the national spectrum – north, east, Buganda and west, it became impossible for the meetings to remain “secret”.

According to our sources in UPC, it all started when a group of party officials approached the senior diplomat urging him to return home and help fill the leadership gap in the party and the country. Among them were Chua County MP Livingstone Okello-Okello and UPC secretary general Chris Opoka Okumu.

The Independent has established that Otunnu, who is widely known as a “global civil servant” after spending 23 years in self-exile is now set to return home in October to a grand welcome. He expects to play a leading role in the UPC and the opposition in general.

His re-entry into national politics appears set to alter the country’s political chessboard with many observers claiming that when he finally arrives here, “the political landscape may never be the same again”.

The Independent was unable to obtain the entire list of attendees which, our sources say, is being kept secret to “protect them from Museveni’s pressure and intimidation”. However, Okello-Okello, Moroto County MP Benson Obua-Ogwal, and former commissioner of the Uganda Human Rights Commission, Joel Omara Aliro, attended the meeting and were assigned the duty of communicating the news to the public.

What Otunnu’s entry means

With barely 18 months left to the 2011 presidential elections, Otunnu’s entry onto the political scene mirrors the entry of Col. Dr Kizza Besigye’s dramatic return from South African exile a few months ahead of the 2006 elections. Analysts are predicting, however, that its impact on national politics could be similar to Besigye’s surprise announcement that he would contest against President Museveni in the 2001 presidential election.

Both acts introduced an element of surprise and vitality in the race where nobody had expected a credible challenge against President Museveni. When Besigye returned from exile in South Africa, over 2 million opposition supporters, many of whom had refused to register to vote because the election was seen as fait acompli for the incumbent, rushed to be registered.

Should Otunnu turn out to be a presidential candidate, many observers say, he could become the defining factor of the 2011 presidential race.

“Otunnu is an intelligent person, has very good international experience especially with the United Nations. As far as intellectual capacity and international experience are concerned, he is a formidable candidate both in UPC and the presidential race,” Dr Jean Barya, lecturer at Makerere University’s Faculty of Law told The Independent.

Dr Barya said Otunnu will be one of the best candidates for UPC because he has not been involved in the internal wrangles of the party. “He is young though not very young and therefore has a good connection to the past of the party and also fairly represents the future,” Barya said.

For Museveni, Otunnu represents a formidable opponent. Indeed Museveni spent a great part of his presidency fighting Otunnu. He has demonised him as a Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) sympathiser, as a ‘terrorist’ collaborator, as a Luwero ‘war crimes’ suspect. Museveni in 1996 even denied Otunnu Uganda’s endorsement for UN top job, thus denying him the opportunity to become the first black African secretary-general of the United Nations in 1991. Uganda instead supported Ghanaian Kofi Annan although Otunnu was one of the early front runners.

Museveni might have to face off with Otunnu either as UPC or as part of a grand opposition coalition. But before that, observers say, he might try to block him like he tried with Besigye in the 2001 presidential contest by trying to court-martial him and refusing him retirement from the army, and in 2006 arresting him on charges of rape and terrorism that were quashed by court. 

Whichever way it turns out, this might be a big political fight for Museveni.  It also comes at a time when Museveni appears politically weak.

In terms of profile, Otunnu and Museveni have completely different profiles.

Otunnu is an accomplished diplomat having served in different capacities in the UN system and other international organisations and therefore with a network that spans the world. Museveni, on the other hand, is a certified guerrilla-cum-soldier with a career dating back to the liberation war in Mozambique, a brief stint as Defence minister, to the bushes of Luwero in his fight against the late ex-president Milton Obote’s government, and finally capturing state power.

Each is expected to draw on their strengths.

In Museveni’s case, as shown in the previous three presidential elections, he will use the military to subjugate his opponents and intimidate voters.

But unlike Museveni’s leading opponent in the last two elections, Col. Besigye who claimed he would handle the militarisation of elections in a contest between a colonel and a general and lost, Otunnu will most likely bank on his diplomatic skills.

As a result, the 2011 election might turn out to be Uganda’s most internationally scrutinised election with consequences for rigging. If Museveni rigs the election as has been alleged in the past, he might not get away with it. Otunnu’s international influence and network could instead ensure that he ends up a pariah like Zimbabwe’s dictator Robert Mugabe or Kenya’s discredited Mwai Kibaki.

Otunnu reportedly told those who attended the Nairobi meeting: “(Museveni’s) regime must be confronted; we have to be frontal with the regime and build a new line of thinking. This is an intellectual issue, it’s about the future of the country, and it’s about the people. Violence and the gun are not the issue; if you talk about violence, then you are out of sync with the aspirations of the people of Uganda.”

In fact our sources say the push for Otunnu to join national politics is not only internal but has big international goodwill.

Indeed The Independent has established that during Otunnu’s visit to Nairobi, an informal dinner was organised in his honour and was attended by no less than six ambassadors from key western countries and prominent Kenyan government politicians.

With Museveni’s strategic relevance to the West fast diminishing and the fast changing global and regional dynamics, his attempt to win a fourth (actually sixth) term in office could easily end in the woods.

FDC, DP face challenge

Otunnu’s entry will not only affect Museveni and his National Resistance Movement party. It will have a ripple effect on other opposition parties especially Besigye’s Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and the Democratic Party (DP).

FDC is currently the leading opposition party with its strength largely derived from the charisma of its president, Besigye. But having had two shots at the presidency without success, Besigye’s novelty appears to have waned. His supporters are wondering whether a third shot at the same opponent can yield different results. A search for alternatives came to the fore at the FDC delegates’ conference in February when Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu challenged Besigye’s leadership of the party.

Besigye finally won not because of his strength as a candidate but because of Muntu’s weakness as an alternative.

Otunnu’s humility could appeal to even some within FDC.

“Like Besigye, Otunnu is a reluctant leader,” one analyst said, “Like Besigye he is more interested in giving Uganda good leadership than of being in power.”

Like Besigye, Otunnu has been steadfast in opposing Museveni’s regime. He is described as a consensus builder and believes in opposition unity above individual party interests just like Besigye. His international profile means he could mobilise international money and diplomatic support.

Otunnu brings new energy and life, just like Besigye was able to do in 2001 and 2006.

Considering that past election results have shown that Ugandans in the opposition vote not for ideology but for the presidential candidate with the best chance of unseating Museveni, will Otunnu shunt Besigye aside and become a joint opposition presidential candidate? Will Besigye and Otunnu agree? Will they run jointly?

“The political environment requires that parties work together and I am 100% for party cooperation,” Otunnu reportedly said in Nairobi, adding; “Inter-party cooperation must be supported on principle not with pre-conceived ideas of the personality who will lead a joint opposition campaign. Even international friends that want to support us want opposition cooperation.”

Our sources indicate that Besigye and Otunnu have made contact and discussed a way forward, though no official in either party was willing to confirm (or deny) on the record that talks between the two leaders are underway.

FDC has been at the forefront of trying to build an opposition alliance among reluctant opposition parties. Even in Otunnu’s UPC, the reception has been lukewarm. Will Otunnu bring a hesitant UPC fully on board?

A UPC insider who attended the Nairobi meeting said “the issue of who leads is not likely to be acrimonious given that both Besigye and Otunnu are not power hungry but rather are pursuing a dream, a vision for the country and their supporters”.

As for DP which has been hesitant to join an opposition alliance, Otunnu’s entry into the picture will define whether the 54-year-old party will survive as a big political player or it will be confined to the annals of history as the party that preferred to die a lone death rather than access a fraction of power as a group.