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New research shows that African elections far from promoting democracy on the continent, retard progress and reverse development gains registered in poor countries. And you don’t have to look far to find the proof.

Take the case of Finance Minister Syda Bbumba’s recently announced national budget which the government critics say was made with the Ugandan 2011 elections in mind. It targeted teachers and ‘scientists’ with increased pay, reduced fees for boda-boda riders etc. Noble intentions, you would think but analysts would say this is the politics of budgeting.

Oxford University economics professor, Paul Collier, in his 2010 best seller, War, Guns & Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places presents findings from thorough empirical research conducted in Africa and other countries of the ‘bottom billion’ over  a number of years which concludes that elections are bad news for Africa and other poor countries.

The new ground-breaking research conducted in Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Uganda and Ivory Coast demonstrates that elections held in Africa have the opposite effect; they heighten  political violence, ethnic tensions, electoral bribery,  imprisonment of   formidable opposition candidates (as we have seen here and in a neighbouring country), divert from national economic programmes and lead to irresponsible public spending, among a catalogue of  ills cited.

It is one of the few pieces of work which presents hard economic and political data that shows a relationship between African elections and a reversal in socio-economic progress.

In Nigeria, it is shown that the economic reforms that country was pursuing leading up to the election that ushered in  the late President Yar’Adua were stayed, a year before the 2007  election, as the Obasanjo government set its sights on winning the upcoming election.  African finance ministers and reformers who are known for their fiscal discipline are usually fired around election time in favour of free-spending door mats.

War, Guns & Votes also shows, perhaps unsurprisingly, that voting decisions in African countries are based on ethnic voting blocks and not on government performance as is the case in the west. A case study of two Nigerian state governors is shown. One, Harvard alumni, focuses on winning re-election through his performance as governor while the other focuses on pandering to ethnic loyalties. The governor who bets his re-election chances on performance lost the election while ethnic posturing won the day. Further evidence that Barrack Obama could never win an African election.

Besides, quality information on governmental performance in Africa is scanty and hard to come by and is therefore scarcely a basis of voter choice as compared to ethnic identity and loyalty.

Intriguing cases are shown of countries which were once peaceful under iron rule but plunged into civil anarchy even with the introduction of democracy. Think of Iraq under Saddam Hussein and today’s dysfunctional Iraqi democracy. Is electoral democracy an enemy of peace in poor countries? Ethnic violence in Kenya is usually rife during elections such as those in 2002 and 2007. Many observers contend that ethnic and even religious rivalries are deliberately fanned by local politicians in the lead up to elections.

Interestingly, the rough and tumble of African elections discourages decent African candidates from vying for political office and instead encourages some not-so- well suited candidates. Elections in poor countries, for instance, tend to attract candidates with criminal records. And Uganda is not short of examples in this regard. After all winning an election in Africa can mean immunity from prosecution and he who controls the reins of state power controls the judicial machinery as well.

Collier also presents research by Pedro Vicente in Sao Tome and Principe islands which found that candidates who bribed voters (in districts where they were not restrained) won as compared to those who didn’t. It is an empirical fact that bribery wins elections in poor countries. After all African voters don’t expect that the competing politicians will deliver on their promises and elections are their only chance to cash in. Some politicians will actually be seen again four years later at the next election.

Collier and Pedro, during the 2007 Nigerian election, were also able to determine that electoral bribery and vote miscounting are complementary strategies for winning elections in poor countries, especially by the incumbent party.

War, Guns & Votes is an insightful reading into how electoral democracy has had the opposite effect in African countries.

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