Is Besigye expired and can his challangers match his qualities?

Kizza Besigye won’t have time to take a break after a disappointing election. But in the meantime, his biggest preoccupation is unlikely to be the ruling NRM and President Yoweri Museveni.

The result of the Feb. 18 election, observers say, puts the party he has led since inception at crossroads, with the central challenge being transition from the first generation of its leaders.

Some party members have already sent signals that they need to move on as a party and stand themselves in better stead to compete for state power in the future. Some have already declared their intention to take over from Besigye.

FDC, only founded in 2005, has probably made more progress over a short time than any other party outside state power in Uganda’s history. It has its own headquarters, it has twice presented the fiercest opposition to the incumbent, and it will lead the opposition for the second time in a row on account of having the highest number of opposition MPs.

The moment of truth for the party seems to have arrived though. Besigye’s second and last term as party president ends in 2014 but some observers say he should leave as soon as possible.

“Staying on until 2014 means his successor won’t have enough time to introduce himself/herself to Ugandans (before the 2016 election),” argues Prof. Yasin Olum of Makerere University political science department. Although the FDC leader isn’t necessarily its presidential candidate, his standing highly impacts the party’s fortunes.

“We need a national leadership that goes beyond the individual (and) leaders should subject their personal aspirations, desires and expectations to the collective aspirations,” adds Olum.

By cutting short his last term to give his party a chance to reposition itself, Olum thinks Besigye would give his party bragging rights and allow Ugandans to contrast it with the other parties.

This is a delicate subject in FDC circles. Some party members are unwilling to speak on the record about Besigye’s succession and whether he should go sooner than later. Observers say some people are uneasy about discussing some issues because ‘the timing isn’t right’. Important posts like Leader of Opposition in Parliament (LoP), opposition chief whip and committee chairpersons are in the offing.

FDC’s vice president for northern Uganda Prof. Ogenga Latigo says replacing the current leadership is an issue that requires extensive planning and consultations. “We have just come out of a meeting and we will hold many more to reach a decision on how to move the party forward,” he told The Independent on Mar. 4.

He says party members and others who are calling for the current party leadership to resign should recognise that the last election wasn’t lost because they are weak or made mistakes, but because it was impossible for the opposition to win under the circumstances.

Latigo added that although in some cases stepping down is the right thing for an opposition leader who has lost an election to do, it is not always the case. “(Kenya’s President Mwai) Kibaki lost twice but he didn’t resign because the DP felt he was their best chance to win,” he argued. Kibaki finally won in 2002.

Besigye has lost thrice and the FDC appears poised to face some serious shake up in the process of shopping for his replacement. When Besigye’s successor finally assumes office, there is bound to be disappointment, even embitterment on the part of some party members.

That some members could even elect to quit the party as a result of the succession war cannot be ruled out. This is another reason observers say Besigye’s succession process should kick off sooner than later to allow time for reconciliation before the next general election.

But party insiders say the top leadership is concerned that the ruling NRM would now focus on using the looming transition in the FDC to weaken the party.

“Replacing Besigye with a weak leader would be in the best interest of the NRM (and) we fear this will now be the focus of their bribery machine. It is something we have to prevent,” said a top leader in FDC who requested anonymity.

While FDC members have this fear, the NRM has always been keen to perpetuate it to fuel the impression created by some people that FDC is a mere extension of the ruling party. When Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu competed against Besigye for the party’s top seat in 2009, for instance, there were reports that some NRM members were campaigning for Muntu, probably to create the impression he was planted by the ruling party.

However, observers say even if these fears could be genuine to some degree, some members could maliciously use them to fight personal battles.

Tribe will also be a key factor. The FDC’s aspiration to national character aside, talk of tribal considerations has always been alive. At its inaugural delegates conference in 2005, Beti Kamya - a Muganda from central, was at the centre of a so-called regional balancing act when she lost the party secretary general slot to Alice Alaso, an Atesot from the east.

Kamya changed her stance in 2008 when the FDC’s first national chairman Dr. Sulaiman Kiggundu, a Muganda died. She then argued the position had to be retained by Buganda and she presented herself as a candidate. A misunderstanding developed that led to her departure from the party. But when the delegates conference met in 2008, indeed a Muganda, Sam Njuba, took the post despite interest from Abdu Katuntu, a Musoga.

Even Latigo’s election as Leader of Opposition (LoP) took a tribal/regional twist with southerners fronting Sam Njuba while the east and north converged around Latigo.

Now some party faithful say that Besigye’s departure must see someone from another region than western Uganda take over the mantle. But western Uganda has some able and seemingly interested candidates for the party’s top seat.

Besigye’s wife Winnie Byanyima is said to be among the candidates some circles within the party would like to front. But if this happens, the argument against Museveni, regularly made by Besigye, that he has built a government around “relatives, friends and in-laws” would fall flat on its face.

Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu, the former army commander who has served as the party’s national mobiliser since inception, has already registered his intention to lead the party by twice challenging Besigye. Hailing from western Uganda, however, succeeding Besigye would provide fodder for critics who may want to project the FDC as a party dominated by people from the region.

Another factor could work against Besigye’s successor coming from western Uganda. Some party members have been grumbling that the FDC hasn’t been rewarded by the people of western Uganda for letting Besigye lead it.

That there is no assurance that another leader from the west would deliver the region’s support for FDC is an argument some members are willing to make to have a leader picked from another region, preferably the north or east which have supported the FDC more.

If Besigye allows cutting short his term, it won’t be the first time. His first term was cut short by over a year in Feb. 2009 when the party’s leadership was renewed in preparation for the 2011 election.

But if the action in February 11 and 13, 2009 delegates conference is anything to go by, events leading to Besigye being replaced are bound to be dramatic.

Besigye’s challenger in 2009, Maj. Gen. Muntu, complained as he canvassed for support that the contribution of the other members to building the party had not been highlighted in a lengthy report presented to the delegates by secretary general Alice Alaso. He said the achievements all seemed to have been attributed to Besigye, the party president and the secretariat.

Muntu was also not happy that Besigye had had over 30 minutes to address the delegates the day before the official campaigns and yet they were given equal time to campaign. He finally polled 53 votes against Besigye’s 656.

Another interesting contest was between Latigo and Aswa County MP Reagan Okumu. Okumu wanted to become vice president for northern Uganda because he said he was instrumental in “delivering” Acholi to the FDC in the 2006 election.

“Northern Uganda doesn’t stop in Acholi,” Latigo shot back, arguing he was better suited for the job because he serves as a “bridge” between the north and the south. Latigo triumphed with 511 votes against Okumu’s 129.

But he made a statement then that could return to haunt him. He told the delegates at Namboole that he would quit his post of LoP if he lost the northern Uganda vice presidency to Okumu because “it was my suggestion that the LoP should be at the level of (party) vice president.”

Having lost the Agago county seat, Latigo seems poised to lose his post as vice president for northern Ugandan if his successor as LoP hails from the region. The list from which to select the next LoP doesn’t have a single vice president.

The vice president for eastern Salam Musumba also lost again in Bugabula South while Yusuf Nsibambi (central) and Amanya Mushega (west) did not compete for parliamentary posts.

The LoP is a coveted post. After the 2006 election, outgoing Kyadondo East MP Sam Njuba offered to resign his seat to let Besigye stand for it and eventually lead the opposition in parliament, an offer Besigye declined.

The fear then was that Besigye as leader of FDC would be rendered irrelevant and the LoP would be accorded more importance. It didn’t happen then, probably due to Besigye’s stature and Latigo’s personality.

It cannot be discounted though, if this time there is a more ambitious LoP and a new FDC president.

The LoP, who is at the level of Prime Minister, needs considerable legislative and administrative experience.  FDC secretary general Alice Alaso is the highest ranking legislator who could be in the running for the post. Her Serere district stuck with the party even in the last election and her party may want to appeal to women by making her the most powerful opposition legislator.

Kassiano Wadri, the opposition chief whip, could too be in the running. He temporarily occupied the seat when Latigo was involved in a motor accident and elevating him to the post of LoP would be a way for the FDC to renew its interest in the West Nile which seemed to slip out of its hands in the last election.

Making Aswa’s Okumu Reagan LoP would keep the position in the Acholi sub-region which the FDC still hopes to recapture while giving it to Budadiri West’s Nandala Mafabi would be very welcome to the Bugisu region which the FDC claims as its own. Other experienced legislators who could be interested in the position are Bugweri’s Abdu Katuntu and Rukiga’s Jack Sabiiti.

Sources in FDC say Alaso and Wadri stand better chances of scooping the position because they are part of the “inner circle”

The so-called “inner circle” has been cause for grumbling about Besigye’s leadership of the party. Some members say they are sidelined and the claim has been made even more powerfully by some of them after the recently concluded election. Some of them say they were sidelined with regard to funding.

Another area on which some members have criticised Besigye’s leadership is what they call his abrasive style that they say does not appeal to undecided potential voters. Others argue, however, that this style enabled Besigye to come across as tough and able to challenge Museveni, winning him admiration from Ugandans who were thrilled by a former military man who is unafraid of Gen. Museveni.

His successor is not likely to have his style or command the cult-type following Besigye enjoys among his supporters. But this, observers reckon, is not necessarily a disadvantage especially if Besigye handles the transition impartially and fully supports the leadership that emerges out of it to build a stronger party. In the end, this could be his biggest victory against Museveni. Will he grab it?

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