On the campaign trail, the Democratic Party’s Norbert Mao has chest-thumped and prided in reeling out names of opponents that he has felled in his two-decade long political career. With obvious glee, the DP leader repeatedly mentioned how against all odds he defeated the late Noble Mayombo in 1990 in an epic fight for the Makerere University student guild presidency. Then six years later, in 1996, it was the turn for Minister Betty Bigombe to take a beating from the then youthful lawyer. And more recently, in 2006, Mao abandoned his parliamentary seat he had occupied for a decade to contest for the Gulu district Chairmanship. He easily swept aside the incumbent Walter Ochora, who in an act that he described as ‘manly’ conceded defeat with only about 5 percent of the votes counted.

Within his Democratic Party, Mao has so far managed to contain a multi-pronged attack on his leadership from prominent Mengo–leaning members of the party who claim the Delegates Conference that thrust him at the helm of Uganda’s oldest political party was illegal.

In his quest for the top job in the land, Mao argued that the bruising political contests that he had fought made him equal to the task of leading Uganda- a country that he has in the past equated to a “wild horse known for throwing off its riders.”

But before he even dares ride the said wild horse he has a much smaller horse to ride: winning the votes in the Acholi, his home region for which he has been a powerful and vocal voice for the last two decades.

In the past, according to Col. Walter Ochora, who is also seeking to regain Gulu LC5 Chairman’s seat, it was easy for opposition politicians to win votes in Acholi.

“‘They would just come and say; ‘how can a great fighter like Museveni fail to defeat Kony? ‘He knows why you are in the internally displaced camps,’” Ochora said in an interview.

But the last four years or so have seen significant improvements in the general situation in northern Uganda. So significant is the change that the perennial loser in the region, the NRM, has suddenly gained more support in the area.

Milton Odongo, the Amuru Resident District Commissioner, predicted 95 percent win for the NRM  in Acholi.

“People in northern Uganda are now sleeping peaceful and happily under NRM iron sheets,” Odongo said.

However, critics said it was too early for NRM to dust and put on their dancing shoes in northern Uganda.

“Do you know why the Acholi have an elephant for an emblem,” rhetorically asks Simon Toolit, MP for Omoro County. “It is because an elephant never forgets where it has come from. How do you expect the Acholi to forget so soon what has happened to them in the last 20 years?”

The Forum for Democratic Change, Simon Toolit’s party, won the bulk of the votes in the Acholi sub- region in the last two elections. Most of the incumbent MPs in the region are FDC.  The FDC has one of the best grassroots political structures in the region, just like the NRM, but it was not celebrating.

Why?  Because the dynamics have changed—amidst NRM optimism and FDC hope that it will, like in the past, benefit from its structures, there came in the Mao and Otunnu factor. Both men are ‘sons of the soil’ and are expected to cream off some of the votes that previously went to the FDC. And FDC strategists have taken note.

Simon Oyet, Nwoya County MP who is fighting to retain his seat on the FDC ticket before quickly adding “but Besigye will win in northern Uganda with Mao coming second.”

No matter who emerges as victor in this election, there will be no shortage of explanations to justify the result.

For example, a loss for the NRM would be interpreted as a continuation of past hostility. A loss for Besigye would be explained by the presence of Mao and Otunnu. A loss for Otunnu could perhaps be explained by his two decade absence from the country. But what would explain a loss for Mao who has been a political constant in Acholi politics? Will a loss at home dent Mao’s future political ambitions?

“In the Democratic Party we are not pessimists,” is the sharp response from DP’s Spokesperson, Mwaka Lutukumoi. “As for 2016 we will cross the bridge when we reach there,” Mwaka says.

For his part, Ochora says that for Mao to improve his future chances it is more important for him to win Buganda  than Acholi votes because it’s the ‘Baganda targeting his neck’.

In fact consolidating his leadership of DP that has its stronghold in Buganda is critical for Mao’s future political ambitions. Already his fiercest critic, Betty Nambooze, has announced she will contest for the 2016 Presidential elections on the ‘DP ticket’. That’s why Mao’s performance in this election will determine the DP support for his 2016 candidature.

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