I was tickled by messages from some Ugandans who seem surprised that the FDC President Kizza Besigye has got 35 per cent support in western Uganda in the recent poll published by the Daily Monitor. In any case, Besigye should be with an overall bigger percentage than what the poll gave him because I believe President Museveni is no longer that popular.

I think FDC has started eating into Museveni's support in western region and the results in all by-elections so far have been showing this. For instance, Jack Sabiiti was the second after the NRM candidate in Rukiga County by-elections and the gap was not as big as before. True, most westerners are satisfied with the status quo but some are not happy with the way they are perceived by the rest of the country. This may be one of the factors why FDC may do well in 2011. For instance, the Buganda riots last September depicted a country divided along tribal lines. The biggest victims were unfairly westerners. I'm saying 'unfairly' because some of these westerners have genuinely worked hard to be where they are.

I also think FDC will do well in Buganda in next year's elections because of the internal friction in the Democratic Party. Some people in Buganda say they will never vote DP president Norbert Mao. Mao and his supporters have dismissed this talk by simply calling it old tribalism which had afflicted DP for a long time. DP's strongest base has always been Buganda as Lango has been for UPC. But a leader does not increase party support by alienating the traditional base of that party. Probably, Mao has been approaching the internal problems in DP with a lot of confrontation and over-relying on courts rather than mediation. UPC's Dr Olara Otunu tried to give Milton Obote's son Jimmy Akena a post in his administration, as a way of keeping the Langi happy, although the latter turned it down.

The most important thing for FDC now, as regards to the Buganda vote, is to work with Mengo and all DP candidates in the region who are friendly to the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC). For instance, Betty Nambooze and Erias Lukwago have been working with Besigye and I see no reason why this relationship wouldn't continue. Lukwago has been sometimes acting as Besigye's lawyer in some of the cases brought against him by the government.

Nambooze was supported by Besigye when she needed help most during her sickness and in the recently concluded Mukono by-elections. Surprisingly, DP's Mao was absent at all times when Nambooze needed help most.
Sometimes people say that because Besigye cannot beat Museveni in western Uganda, he therefore does not deserve to be given support elsewhere in the country. But this is what the Baganda call 'OKOTOGERA'( sabotaging).

President Museveni has already declared himself the 'king' of western Uganda. It becomes difficult for a 'commoner' to fight the king within his territory in such a short time. In most cases, as history shows, one normally needs help outside the kingdom to dislodge the king. Therefore, nobody expects FDC to take over western Uganda for the short time it has been in existence since it was formed in 2004. Admittedly, even some people in FDC concede that this will not be achieved as long as President Museveni is still in power. But nevertheless they have not given up trying.
Don't forget that western Uganda used to be a DP and UPC stronghold as confirmed by Museveni in his book: ""Sowing the Mustard Seed". Bahima were traditionally DP supporters before NRM and Museveni changed this. The Bahima supported DP for historical reasons in Ankole. Before independence the Protestants who were sharing power with the Bahima Protestants wanted to wrestle power from the Bahima aristocracy (Obugabe of Ankole). The Bahima allied with the Catholics to foil the Bairu Protestants' move.

When DP was formed in the 1950s, nearly all of the Bahima joined DP. That's how the Mwiru Prime Minister Nganwa was toppled in 1962 and replaced with a Catholic called John Kabeirebo.
On the other hand, Obote's UPC also used to have a lot of support in areas such as Bushenyi and among the Bairu. But this was also changed when NRM came to power.

Therefore, one day FDC will also gain majority support in western Uganda probably when Museveni is out of power. Realistically, I cannot see this happening in the next 10 years because human nature dictates that if something sweet is in your mouth, you don't throw it away that easily and quickly.

Most westerners already feel comfortable with President Museveni and see no reason to 'throw up'. But this situation will change in FDC's favour, just like the north is opening its gates to other parties other than UPC. The fact is that the future looks bright for FDC unless something happens drastically.

Both old parties and NRM will always watch their backs as long as FDC keeps getting stronger because it is behaving like a cow not locked in a paddock. When a cow is not locked in a paddock, it feeds on everybody's plantations in the village, and nobody likes that. This kind of cow tends to produce a lot of milk at the end of the day if the villagers don't kill it. So the question is, will other parties be able to build paddocks against FDC? I guess not.

Semuwemba is a Ugandan living in the UK

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