Libya, Bahrain, Yemen are all caught up in Egypt-inspired revolutions. Which will be the next to fall?
Libya: Things are moving fast. The ongoing tug of war between the Gaddafi dictatorship and his resentful population has shifted into fifth gear and what might have seemed like a fanciful dream to the country’s oppressed only a week ago, has now become at least a possibility.
Libya, like its Egyptian counterpart, has been ruled under the auspices of one man—in this case Col. Gaddafi—for 41 years. The country’s political and civil liberties, freedoms of expression, assembly and belief have long been rated near the bottom of the global list by Freedom House, but with the advent of Tunisia and Egypt, the population, whose median age is 24 years, have simply had it. “I’m not afraid to die,” said Fathi Terbil, a lawyer and Gaddafi critic whose arrest two weeks ago helped propel the demonstrations. “I’m afraid to lose the battle, that’s why I want the media to see what’s going on.”
The media, however, unlike in Egypt and Tunisia, has been kept well segregated from events. Nevertheless, Libyans still brave to give interviews by phone despite the risks. As a result, the sheer brutality of the Libyan response—approximately 233 dead and 900 injured—is now fact. Qaddafi’s thugs, a culmination of Libya’s elite second brigade commanded by Gaddafi’s son Khamis, and mercenaries from different parts of the continent, have used live fire on demonstrators, especially in Benghazi, Libya’s second largest city, most notoriously during funeral processions of protesters mourning others.
Consequently, Libya’s protesters, unlike those in Egypt who mostly faced teargas and rubber bullets, have begun arming themselves with chains, pipes and machetes. The government accuses them of being supplied by international spies, but their allegations are falling on deaf ears. Instead, every day engenders more detractors whether from the military, diplomatic corps or elders from the country’s dominant tribes.
On Monday morning Seif Gaddafi, another son, offered some irrelevant concessions to the nation including a potential new flag, national anthem and confederate structure. Seif also warned that Libya would fall into civil war and renewed Western “Colonization” if his father was removed from power. Gaddafi’s whereabouts have been unknown for days, but Seif warned that his father’s government would fight, “until the last man, until the last woman, until the last bullet.” Given its history of brutality, Gaddafi’s force and willingness to use it should not be underestimated, but this time around, nor should the will of the Libyan people.
Bahrain: Pearl Square in Manama, Bahrain’s capital city has become Bahrain’s equivalent of Egypt’s Tahrir Square. Just as the Egyptians had to face tear gas, rubber bullets and then rock throwing and baton wielding pro-government supporters before claiming the square theirs, Bahrain’s mass of demonstrators have faced a similar fight. On Thursday morning, as they slept in the square, demonstrators were awakened by machine gun wielding security forces. Over the next two days of violent confrontations, a total of six were killed, and scores injured and arrested.
On Saturday, a day after Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa’s son, Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad, was placed in charge of starting a “national dialogue,” the troops were ordered to leave the square, a precondition opposition leaders had set for negotiations. However, by the end of the day another movement had emerged calling for nothing less than democratic reforms that would shift the tiny Persian Gulf nation from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy. The protestors also want the king to dissolve his government and remove his uncle, who has held the post of prime minister for the last 40 years.
The results of their demands, however, are likely to be tempered by other forces in the region. The protests, which are being driven largely by the country’s marginalized Shiite population demanding economic and political concessions from the Sunni royal family, raises concerns amongst Bahrain’s American and Saudi Arabian allies. Saudi Arabia, which lies across a 15-mile causeway from the Bahrain border, has its own disgruntled Shiite population in its Eastern Province adjacent to Bahrain. The Saudi’s are also both concerned that a stronger Shiite population in Bahrain can threaten the established order in the region and benefit their longtime enemy Iran.
Tuesday has been set as another day of mass protests in Manama as demonstrators are finding it difficult to heed government calls of reconciliation days after the government ordered them to be shot at in broad daylight. Meanwhile the Saudis will be doing all they can to ensure that Bahrain’s Sunni monarchy remains in tact, including putting pressure on the Americans to abide by the same strategy.
Other candidates: Yemen is another country that could see a shift in power soon. Demonstrations have been ongoing for several weeks, resulting in ongoing street battles between supporters and rivals of President Ali Abdullah Saleh that have claimed at least ten lives. President Saleh has been in power for 32 years, but in the midst of demonstrations pledged to stand down in 2013 and said he would not hand over power to his son. Nevertheless, some demonstrators are demanding that Saleh depart earlier. These individuals, mostly young students using Facebook and text messages, have also been joined by secessionists in the country’s south who have long sparred with the American-backed Saleh regime. Yemen is the Arab world’s most impoverished country where almost half the population subsists on less than two dollars a day.
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